We have studied the balance between olefin insertion and β-hydrogen transfer to monomer
for all “well-defined” aluminum polymerization catalysts reported to date. Consistently, the
balance is predicted to be significantly worse than for Me2AlEt, implying that none of the
proposed active species should give a high-molecular-mass polymer. A more systematic
analysis of ligand effects allows a rationalization of these results and shows that small
modifications to the proposed active species are unlikely to solve the problem. We conclude
that olefin polymerization at a single aluminum center is rather unlikely. Alternative
interpretations of the experimental data are discussed