Causal Relationships between Infant Mortality and Fertility in Developedand Less Developed Countries


This paper is a study of the dynamic relationships between two demographic variables--the infant mortality rate and the fertility rate-- using time series methodology. I believe that I have shown that infant mortality and fertility are not independent but rather are jointly determined. Also, i believe that I have shown that a decline in infant mortality that is due to an increase in per capita real income triggers a subsequent decline in fertility.This dynamic nexus between changes in infant mortality and fertilitylies at the heart of the so-called "demographic transition."

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