A prognosis of patent activity development

Abstract

The paper provides a statistical theory for estimating the rate of development of a technical field. The patent activity in the technical field is determined and used as a criterion of development in this field. The paper comprises three sections: 1. 1. Formation of basic statistical ideas about the creation and materialization of an invention. Finding an appropriate mathematical expression of these ideas. 2. 2. Derivation of numerical methods enabling the solution of the statistical problem stipulated in the first section. 3. 3. Testing of the created theory through several examples of a patent activity in the world. In first section it is shown that it is possible to find an analogy between the methods of statistical mechanics and the methods of statistical mechanics and the methods describing the process of inventing. The theory is created using these analogy- based axioms and enables the creation of a great numer of models by which the process of inventing can be controlled. In the third section the theory is tested through the example of the patent activity in the technical field chamber X-ray apparatus supplied by a current of frequency considerably higher than from the mains in the F.R.G., U.S.A and U.S.S.R. The simplest model already provides a very good agreement between the number of patent applications actually deposited and the theoretical results and enables the prognosis of the patent activity and in this way also the estimation of the future development in a technical field. On the other hand the sensitivity of the method upon the correct selection of patent applications into the fields is shown. The theory may be used as an effective help in deciding about license investments, in regulation of research works, for production of technical field development prognosis and in many problems relating to economics in which a knowledge of supposed development of the technical field is important.