Remarks at the Connecticut Business and Industry Association/MetroHartford Alliance Economic Summit and Outlook 2011, Hartford, ConnecticutRecessions ; Labor market ; Employment ; Housing - Finance ; Mortgages ; Default (Finance) ; Housing - Prices ; Economic conditions

Joseph S. Tracy

English

Research Papers in Economics

January 7, 2011
The Shape of the Recovery
Charts presented by Joseph Tracy, Executive Vice President
Annual Economic Summit and Outlook 2011
Connecticut Business and Industry Association/MetroHartford Alliance
Hartford, CT
.Post-Recession Growth Rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
1975Q2 1975Q3 1975Q4 1976Q1 1976Q2 1976Q3 1976Q4 1977Q1
0
2
4
6
8
10
% Change – AR % Change – AR 1973-1975 Cycle: 1975Q1 Trough
% Change – AR % Change – AR 2001 Cycle: 2001Q4 Trough
0
2
4
6
8
10
2002Q1 2002Q2 2002Q3 2002Q4 2003Q1 2003Q2 2003Q3 2003Q4
0
2
4
6
8
10106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
Millions Millions
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Private Non-Farm Payroll EmploymentUnemployment Insurance
4-Week Moving Average 4-Week Moving Average
Source: Department of Labor
Continuing Claims 
(Left Axis)
Initial Claims    
(Right Axis)
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
7001
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Ratio of Housing Starts to Population
Single-Family Homes
Starts per 1,000,000 people Starts per 1,000,000 people
Source: Census Bureau-24
-16
-8
0
8
16
24
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Year to Year         
(Left Axis)
Period to Period 
(Right Axis)
CoreLogic National Home Price Index
Including Distressed-SA
% Change  % Change
Source: CoreLogic/HaverAnalytics Note: Monthly DataGrowing Foreclosure Pipeline:
Source: OCC & OTS Mortgage Metric Reports Note: Quarterly Data
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4  2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3
In progress
Newly initiated 75
100
125
150
175
200
225
Jan 1996 Jan 1998 Jan 2000 Jan 2002 Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010
H
o
m
e
 
P
r
i
c
e
 
I
n
d
e
x
 
(
J
a
n
u
a
r
y
 
2
0
0
0
 
=
 
1
0
0
)
Repeat-Sale Home Price Index for Connecticut and USA
USA CT
Note:   Home price index based on repeat sales; includes all transactions.
Source:  CoreLogic
Oct. 2010

The shape of the recovery

http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2011/tra110107.html

The shape of the recovery

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