Over the last decade, the Hispanic voting community has emerged as one
of the most important demographic groups in United States politics, especially in
recent presidential elections. Yet there has been very little research conducted on
Hispanic voter turnout and voting behavior.
When it comes to theories of minority voting behavior, resource theories
significantly fail to capture the total dynamics of minority group voting behavior and turnout. For example, Hispanics have lower SES resources, such as
education and income, relative to Anglos, but so do African-Americans, yet
African-Americans vote at significantly much higher rates than Hispanics. One
logical explanation as for why these models fail to explain fully Hispanic turnout
behavior is the fact that almost all the research conducted has been on Anglos.
This researcher proposes a new Hispanic voter model, a theory of
Hispanic surge-and-decline effects on peripheral Hispanic voters, that adds the
concept of self-activation vis-a-vis group consciousness to resource and
mobilization explanations. This theory is analyzed using recent San Antonio
Mayoral elections, New Mexico Gubernatorial elections and Colorado Senatorial
elections. Time series analyses and multiple linear regression analyses are
utilized to study precinct-to-the-same-precinct and county-to-the-same-county net
change in turnout between elections.
The results of these analyses strongly support the surge-and-decline
theory. Specifically, Hispanic surges are tied to increases in peripheral Hispanic
voters, and when viable Hispanic candidates seek office, Hispanic turnout
increases significantly relative to both Anglo turnout and baseline Hispanic
turnout, and when no viable Hispanic runs for office, Hispanic turnout decreases
relatively. This has profound future implications. If the Republican and Democratic
parties want to attract more Hispanic voters for their respective candidates, then
these parties must recruit, run and support viable Hispanic candidates at all levels
of government, including candidates the Vice Presidency and the Presidency.
Based on the theory of Hispanic surge-and-decline effects, this researcher posits
that the first party to select a viable Hispanic Vice Presidential candidate, and
ultimately a viable Presidential candidate, will be the party that realigns the
majority of Hispanic voters for at least three to four decades.Governmen