First paragraph: It is 9am on a chilly March morning. Delegates from across the world have assembled for an emergency meeting of the North Atlantic Council, NATO’s main decision-making body. The main item on the agenda: an update from the Supreme Allied Commander Europe on Russian escalations in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe, to determine NATO’s response.  No one doubts the gravity of the situation. Russian forces are moving west to occupy parts of Ukraine beyond the Donbas region and the Crimea. There have also been severe Russian cyber attacks on German infrastructure, while Vladimir Putin has threatened to invade Estonia. NATO’s secretary general has asked one of his predecessors, Lord Robertson of Port Ellen, to join the meeting and share advice.  Do not adjust your set: this meeting took place, but it was a simulation – set in a very near future in which the Ukraine has joined NATO and the UK has left the EU.https://theconversation.com/we-war-gamed-an-escalation-of-the-ukraine-russia-crisis-heres-what-it-taught-us-about-the-real-world-11380

Dee, Megan

Nehring, Holger

English

First paragraph: It is 9am on a chilly March morning. Delegates from across the world have assembled for an emergency meeting of the North Atlantic Council, NATO’s main decision-making body. The main item on the agenda: an update from the Supreme Allied Commander Europe on Russian escalations in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe, to determine NATO’s response.  No one doubts the gravity of the situation. Russian forces are moving west to occupy parts of Ukraine beyond the Donbas region and the Crimea. There have also been severe Russian cyber attacks on German infrastructure, while Vladimir Putin has threatened to invade Estonia. NATO’s secretary general has asked one of his predecessors, Lord Robertson of Port Ellen, to join the meeting and share advice.  Do not adjust your set: this meeting took place, but it was a simulation – set in a very near future in which the Ukraine has joined NATO and the UK has left the EU

Stirling Online Research Repository (RIOXX)

3/22/2019 We war-gamed an escalation of the Ukraine-Russia crisis – here's what it taught us about the real worldhttps://theconversation.com/we-war-gamed-an-escalation-of-the-ukraine-russia-crisis-heres-what-it-taught-us-about-the-real-world-113802 1/5AuthorsHolger NehringProfessor in Contemporary EuropeanHistory, University of StirlingMegan DeeLecturer in International Politics, Universityof StirlingAcademic rigour, journalistic flairWe war-gamed an escalation of the Ukraine-Russia crisis – here’swhat it taught us about the real worldMarch 20, 2019 10.37am GMTIt is 9am on a chilly March morning. Delegates from across the world have assembled for anemergency meeting of the North Atlantic Council, NATO’s main decision-making body. The mainitem on the agenda: an update from the Supreme Allied Commander Europe on Russian escalationsin Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe, to determine NATO’s response.No one doubts the gravity of the situation. Russian forces are moving west to occupy parts of Ukrainebeyond the Donbas region and the Crimea. There have also been severe Russian cyber attacks onGerman infrastructure, while Vladimir Putin has threatened to invade Estonia. NATO’s secretarygeneral has asked one of his predecessors, Lord Robertson of Port Ellen, to join the meeting and shareadvice.Do not adjust your set: this meeting took place, but it was a simulation – set in a very near future inwhich the Ukraine has joined NATO and the UK has left the EU.These kinds of exercise are conducted regularly by NATO and national armies to anticipate whatmight happen in the “fog of war”. Standing in for the NATO headquarters in Brussels on this occasionwas the University of Stirling in central Scotland. The delegates were students on the university’smasters programme in international conflict and cooperation, and the doctorate in diplomacy.‘Games without frontiers, war without tears …’ Kirillir_makarov3/22/2019 We war-gamed an escalation of the Ukraine-Russia crisis – here's what it taught us about the real worldhttps://theconversation.com/we-war-gamed-an-escalation-of-the-ukraine-russia-crisis-heres-what-it-taught-us-about-the-real-world-113802 2/5Lord Robertson was the only person playing himself. He briefed delegates under Chatham Houserules on his time chairing NATO, including the historic decision on September 12, 2001 to invokecollective defensive action under Article 5 of the founding treaty.Immersed in NATO’s engine room, our delegates had to strike a balance during two days ofnegotiations between countries advocating conflict resolution and those inclined to deterrence – if notpre-emptive action. As well as informing the students’ learning, it produced the following insights forthe real world.1. Russian capabilitiesDelegates had to assess Russian defensive capabilities using real-life data. They concluded that whileRussia looks strong on a country-by-country comparison, its armed forces remain stretched and aresometimes poorly equipped. Russia would probably not be able to sustain a war with NATO troopsover several months, and would likely be challenged by fighting on two fronts.Having said that, the country’s forces have recently modernised, making them more effective than afew years ago. Russia is also closer than most NATO powers to Ukraine and the Baltics, so couldmobilise more quickly and potentially gain strategic advantages.NATO action in Ukraine would be complicated by a low bridge that Russia has opened connectingCrimea to the Russian mainland. This makes it difficult for larger ships to move between Ukraine’sBlack Sea ports and the Mediterranean. Russian expertise in cyber attacks and creating confusion byspreading fake news could also create disunity among NATO members.Takeaway: the Russian bear is frail but can still bite.2. Expect complexityCountries in our simulation negotiated according to national interests. The multilateral negotiationsplintered into smaller discussions as mini-alliances emerged. For example, Turkey – with its Lord Robertson holds forth. University of Stirling3/22/2019 We war-gamed an escalation of the Ukraine-Russia crisis – here's what it taught us about the real worldhttps://theconversation.com/we-war-gamed-an-escalation-of-the-ukraine-russia-crisis-heres-what-it-taught-us-about-the-real-world-113802 3/5improving relations with Russia and exposure to potential refugees – was so conciliatory to Moscowthat its NATO membership became questionable.On the other side of the spectrum, Ukraine and also Romania, which feels threatened by Russianaggression in the Black Sea region, sought immediate offensive action. Alliances like these weren’talways visible to the outside world. They complicated negotiations, especially when such countrieshad essentially non-negotiable aims.Takeaway: things are not always what they seem, even within a negotiation. Try and stay flexible,and don’t rely on media reports about counterparts’ interests.3. Events, events, eventsJust like in real life, our delegates had to keep monitoring an internal news feed. In oneannouncement, Russia began mobilising after hard-line statements from certain NATO membersleaked to the media on day one of the negotiation. Several times, discussions had to start from scratchas delegations changed priorities and strategies.Takeaway: constantly ask yourself how events affect your own position and those of yourcounterparts.4. Clarity under pressureWith full military intervention and occupation of Ukraine by Russia on the cards by the middle of daytwo, NATO allies had to deploy ground troops or risk ceding ground to Moscow. Issues agonised overthe day before became less relevant as delegations were forced to compromise in the interests ofcollective action.Takeaway: time pressure can make decision-making hot-headed, but can lead to clarity of purpose.Negotiators who understand this can use it to their advantage.Diplomacy in action. University of Stirling3/22/2019 We war-gamed an escalation of the Ukraine-Russia crisis – here's what it taught us about the real worldhttps://theconversation.com/we-war-gamed-an-escalation-of-the-ukraine-russia-crisis-heres-what-it-taught-us-about-the-real-world-113802 4/55. EU securityAs EU members of our fictional North Atlantic Council discussed issues among themselves, wewitnessed how the EU has become a geopolitical actor with “state-like” qualities. Before committingto security actions through NATO, EU members negotiated with each other and sought a coherentposition.One important dimension in the real world is the EU’s Russia sanctions, which are slightly different toUS sanctions. With Ukraine now also party to an EU Association Agreement, the EU is demonstratingits capability to project power abroad.Takeaway: the EU is developing its own geopolitical and security role in Europe, with potentialconsequences for NATO.6. The UK squeezeWithin NATO, the UK has generally mediated between the US and usually softer EU positions. Oursimulation showed that after Brexit, despite its important role as a nuclear-armed NATO member, theUK will likely feel squeezed between the US and EU.Takeaway: the implications of Brexit for the UK in NATO deserve more attention.7. Refugee risksIn our simulation NATO members closer to Russia, such as Poland and Hungary, were particularlyworried that military action in Ukraine would lead to a large number of refugees – with potentiallyserious domestic political consequences.EU and yours. Alexandros Michailidis3/22/2019 We war-gamed an escalation of the Ukraine-Russia crisis – here's what it taught us about the real worldhttps://theconversation.com/we-war-gamed-an-escalation-of-the-ukraine-russia-crisis-heres-what-it-taught-us-about-the-real-world-113802 5/5NATO Russia Vladimir Putin Ukraine crimea BrexitTakeaway: we don’t always take enough account of the linkages between military and humansecurity.8. Take positive decisionsWhen the BBC war-gamed a similar scenario several years ago, the UK got drawn into a nuclear war.Our fictional delegates managed to avoid such awful outcomes by using what deterrent power theyhad. They combined mobilisation with the offer of talks in such a way that Russia backed off. Despitesome hawkish pressure, the situation was mostly defused by dominant countries such as the US aswell as conciliatory EU voices.Takeaway: On March 18, on the fifth anniversary of annexation, NATO reiterated its view that Crimea is Ukrainian territory. Meanwhile,hostilities continue in Donbas. The apparent stalemate in Ukraine couldchange overnight – not least with the presidential election at the end ofMarch. If so, NATO members will have to make a choice, despite the factthat Ukraine is not currently a member of the alliance. As became clearto our participants, the one thing you can’t do in a moment ofinternational crisis is to refuse to act if your interests are at stake.Found this article useful? A gift of £20/month helps deliverknowledge-based, ethical journalism.Make a donationPutin in Crimea on March 18. EPA 

We war-gamed an escalation of the Ukraine-Russia crisis - here's what it taught us about the real world

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https://dspace.stir.ac.uk/retrieve/07514513-2556-4340-a8fa-802e75dcbc0c/Nehring-Dee-Conversation-2019.pdf

We war-gamed an escalation of the Ukraine-Russia crisis - here's what it taught us about the real world

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