Beckman, F

Keizer, T

Newton, J

Nicolai, M

Seeyave, S

Turley, CM

Plymouth Marine Science Electronic Archive (PlyMSEA)

www.oceansofimpact.globaloceansofimpactThis publication has been developed for the UNFCCC COP23 by an international global science partnership, providing evidence-based science for policy making on the impacts of increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases on the ocean and human systems. Any questions? Contact: Thecla Keizer, tke@pml.ac.uk.Please cite this document as: Turley C, Keizer T, Seeyave S, Beckman F, Nicolai M, Newton J: Oceans of Impact. Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK Ocean Acidification Research Programme, Partnership for Observation of the Global Oceans, BIOACID - Biological Impacts of Ocean Acidification and the Global Ocean Acidification-Observing Network; 2017 4pp.DOI: 10.17031/EP387W.Oceans of Change?Ocean Stress Guide - Your awareness can make a differenceWhat the ocean will experience this century without urgent and substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.Evidence forpolicy makingInforms riskassessmentCapacitybuildingAnalysisModelsandprojectionsSocial andeconomicfactors   FacilitatesevaluationField data ExperimentsObservationsfrom seaand spaceOcean Acidificationl The ocean has absorbed 27% of CO2 emissions and  when CO2 enters the ocean it causes a series of chemical reactions decreasing pH (increasing acidity  levels)l Surface ocean acidity has already increased by 30% and could increase by 120-150% by 2100 Warmingl Over 90% of the energy from warming of the Earth  system has been taken up by the ocean resulting in warming of all oceans at all depthsl Surface waters have warmed on average by about 0.7ºC over the last 100 years and this could increase by over 3ºC by 2100 Deoxygenationl This is the decrease in the concentration of oxygen, important for most sea animalsl Since 1960 there is about a 2% loss of oxygen in the whole ocean but this rate is increasing Sea Level Risel Estimates of global mean sea level rise this century  are 0.45 to 0.82 m for RCP8.5 (high emissions pathway)l This could increase substantially in the following  centuries due to loss of major ice sheetsSEA LEVEL3213.52.51.5The ocean covers nearly three quarters of the Earth’s surface, contains 96% of its living space, harbours enormous biological and genetic diversity, provides around half of the oxygen in the atmosphere and is an increasingly important source of protein for a rapidly growing world population. However, human activity is having an impact on this precious resource on local, regional and global scales. The ocean has been experiencing substantial changes in marine physics, chemistry and biology including ocean acidification, rising seawater temperature, ocean deoxygenation and sea level rise. These four, often interacting factors, are expected to increase over the coming decades depending on the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It is imperative that international decision-makers and stakeholders understand the enormous role the ocean plays in sustaining life on Earth, and the consequences of a high CO2 world for the ocean and society.Oceans of ImpactStressorAcidification Developed as a research topic inpast decadeWarming A relatively mature study area in terms of physical changesand physiology but poorly studied at ecosystem and biogeochemical levelsDeoxygenationEmerging issue, poorly studiedSea Level RiseA mature research area and a long-term issueCausesl Increasing  atmospheric carbon  dioxide emissions l Coastal nutrient  enrichment,  methane hydrates  and acid gases from  industrial emissions  may also contribute  locallyl Increasing  greenhouse gas  emissions to the  atmospherel Reduced oxygen  solubility due to  warmingl Decreased oxygen  supply to the ocean  interior due to less  mixingl Nutrient rich land  run-off stimulating  oxygen removal  locallyl Climate warming due  to increased  greenhouse gas  emissions to the  atmosphereResultl Unprecedented  rapid change to  ocean carbonate  chemistry l Much of the ocean  will become  corrosive to shelled  animals and corals,  with effects  starting in the  Arctic by 2020l Temperature  increase,  particularly in near-  surface watersl Less ocean mixing  due to increased  stratificationl Increased run-off  and sea-ice melt  will also contribute  to stratification in  Arctic watersl Less oxygen  available for  respiration  especially in  productive regions,  and in the ocean  interiorl Extended areas  of low and very low  oxygenl Melting of glaciers  and ice sheetsl Thermal expansion of  seawaterDirect effectsl Reduced calcification,  growth and reproduction  rates in many speciesl Changes to the carbon  and nitrogen composition  of organic materiall Decreased carbon dioxide  solubilityl Increased speed of  chemical and biological  processes l Reduced natural nutrient  re-supply in more  stratified watersl Reduced growth and  activity of zooplankton,  fish and other oxygen- using organismsl Endocrine disruptionl Increase in the volume of  water in the oceanl Rise in the level of seasImpactsl Impeded shell or skeletal  growth and physiological stress  in many species, including  juvenile stages l Change to biodiversity and  ecosystems, and the goods and  services they providel Cold and upwelling waters  currently supporting key  fisheries and aquaculture likely    to be especially vulnerablel Stress to organism physiology,  including coral bleachingl Extensive migration of speciesl More rapid turnover of organic  matterl Nutrient stress for  phytoplankton, particularly in  warm watersl Changes to biodiversity, food  webs and productivity, with  potential consequences for  fisheries, coastal protection and tourisml Stress to oxygen-using  organismsl Risk of species loss in low  oxygen areasl Impacts on reproductive successl Shift to low oxygen-tolerant   organisms, especially  microorganisms and loss of  ecosystem services in  these areasl Flooding of coastal and island  habitatsl Erosion of shorelinesl Loss of infrastructurel Greater risk of impacts from storms and surgesOcean Stress Guide - Your awareness can make a differenceWhat the ocean will experience this century without urgent and substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.Evidence forpolicy makingInforms riskassessmentCapacitybuildingAnalysisModelsandprojectionsSocial andeconomicfactors   FacilitatesevaluationField data ExperimentsObservationsfrom seaand spaceOcean Acidificationl The ocean has absorbed 27% of CO2 emissions and  when CO2 enters the ocean it causes a series of chemical reactions decreasing pH (increasing acidity  levels)l Surface ocean acidity has already increased by 30% and could increase by 120-150% by 2100 Warmingl Over 90% of the energy from warming of the Earth  system has been taken up by the ocean resulting in warming of all oceans at all depthsl Surface waters have warmed on average by about 0.7ºC over the last 100 years and this could increase by over 3ºC by 2100 Deoxygenationl This is the decrease in the concentration of oxygen, important for most sea animalsl Since 1960 there is about a 2% loss of oxygen in the whole ocean but this rate is increasing Sea Level Risel Estimates of global mean sea level rise this century  are 0.45 to 0.82 m for RCP8.5 (high emissions pathway)l This could increase substantially in the following  centuries due to loss of major ice sheetsSEA LEVEL3213.52.51.5The ocean covers nearly three quarters of the Earth’s surface, contains 96% of its living space, harbours enormous biological and genetic diversity, provides around half of the oxygen in the atmosphere and is an increasingly important source of protein for a rapidly growing world population. However, human activity is having an impact on this precious resource on local, regional and global scales. The ocean has been experiencing substantial changes in marine physics, chemistry and biology including ocean acidification, rising seawater temperature, ocean deoxygenation and sea level rise. These four, often interacting factors, are expected to increase over the coming decades depending on the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It is imperative that international decision-makers and stakeholders understand the enormous role the ocean plays in sustaining life on Earth, and the consequences of a high CO2 world for the ocean and society.Oceans of ImpactStressorAcidification Developed as a research topic inpast decadeWarming A relatively mature study area in terms of physical changesand physiology but poorly studied at ecosystem and biogeochemical levelsDeoxygenationEmerging issue, poorly studiedSea Level RiseA mature research area and a long-term issueCausesl Increasing  atmospheric carbon  dioxide emissions l Coastal nutrient  enrichment,  methane hydrates  and acid gases from  industrial emissions  may also contribute  locallyl Increasing  greenhouse gas  emissions to the  atmospherel Reduced oxygen  solubility due to  warmingl Decreased oxygen  supply to the ocean  interior due to less  mixingl Nutrient rich land  run-off stimulating  oxygen removal  locallyl Climate warming due  to increased  greenhouse gas  emissions to the  atmosphereResultl Unprecedented  rapid change to  ocean carbonate  chemistry l Much of the ocean  will become  corrosive to shelled  animals and corals,  with effects  starting in the  Arctic by 2020l Temperature  increase,  particularly in near-  surface watersl Less ocean mixing  due to increased  stratificationl Increased run-off  and sea-ice melt  will also contribute  to stratification in  Arctic watersl Less oxygen  available for  respiration  especially in  productive regions,  and in the ocean  interiorl Extended areas  of low and very low  oxygenl Melting of glaciers  and ice sheetsl Thermal expansion of  seawaterDirect effectsl Reduced calcification,  growth and reproduction  rates in many speciesl Changes to the carbon  and nitrogen composition  of organic materiall Decreased carbon dioxide  solubilityl Increased speed of  chemical and biological  processes l Reduced natural nutrient  re-supply in more  stratified watersl Reduced growth and  activity of zooplankton,  fish and other oxygen- using organismsl Endocrine disruptionl Increase in the volume of  water in the oceanl Rise in the level of seasImpactsl Impeded shell or skeletal  growth and physiological stress  in many species, including  juvenile stages l Change to biodiversity and  ecosystems, and the goods and  services they providel Cold and upwelling waters  currently supporting key  fisheries and aquaculture likely    to be especially vulnerablel Stress to organism physiology,  including coral bleachingl Extensive migration of speciesl More rapid turnover of organic  matterl Nutrient stress for  phytoplankton, particularly in  warm watersl Changes to biodiversity, food  webs and productivity, with  potential consequences for  fisheries, coastal protection and tourisml Stress to oxygen-using  organismsl Risk of species loss in low  oxygen areasl Impacts on reproductive successl Shift to low oxygen-tolerant   organisms, especially  microorganisms and loss of  ecosystem services in  these areasl Flooding of coastal and island  habitatsl Erosion of shorelinesl Loss of infrastructurel Greater risk of impacts from storms and surgeswww.oceansofimpact.globaloceansofimpactThis publication has been developed for the UNFCCC COP23 by an international global science partnership, providing evidence-based science for policy making on the impacts of increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases on the ocean and human systems. Any questions? Contact: Thecla Keizer, tke@pml.ac.uk.Please cite this document as: Turley C, Keizer T, Seeyave S, Beckman F, Nicolai M, Newton J: Oceans of Impact. Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK Ocean Acidification Research Programme, Partnership for Observation of the Global Oceans, BIOACID - Biological Impacts of Ocean Acidification and the Global Ocean Acidification-Observing Network; 2017 4pp.DOI: 10.17031/EP387W.Oceans of Change?

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