Mongolian Journal of International Affairs Vol.1 1994: 9-1

Bold, K

English

Mongolia Journals Online

9 Number 1, 1994The Mongolian Journal of International AffairsARTICLESTHE CHANGING INTERNATIONAL ORDER ANDMONGOLIA’S SECURITYK.BoldIntroductionSince Mongolia launched its policy of “gradual limited reform” in 1988, itsefforts to diversify its diplomacy have borne considerable fruit, and the condi-tions for the country’s peaceful environment have improved dramatically. How-ever, recent political developments in both internal and external affairs - such asthe approval of a new constitution based on universal principles of politicaldemocracy, the transition to a market-oriented economy, the denunciation ofsocialist dogma and adherence to foreign and domestic policies to meet thenational ineterests, the disappearance of Mongolia’s only ally, the Soviet Union,and more access to the world community - lead us to ask whether Mongoliashould reevaluate its securuty policy to adjust to a new situation in the after-math of the cold war.The changes that may affect Mongolia’s security policy are the dissolu-tion of the Soviet Union, Mongolia’s improving and expanding relations withChina, and its political and economic open-door policy. What effect would thesechanges have on the security of Mongolia? If any changes have been broughtabout, how should Mongolia best adjust it to such changes? These and otherquestions related to recent political developments surrounding Mongolia areworth scrutinizing to see whether any change or adjustment is necessary formaintaining Mongolia’s security.Dissolution of the Soviet UnionGlasnost and perestroika, initiated by former President M.Gorbachev, even-tually led to the collapse of one of the world’s greatest military powers and thedisintegration of the Soviet Union. There emerged twelve states and the Com-monwealth of Independent States, among which the Russian Federation is thelargest in terms of size, resources and power.The Russian Federation consists of twenty republic and eleven autono-mous units, including all the territories in the Far Eastern part. It now has pro- Number 1, 199410The Mongolian Journal of International Affairsclaimed itself the successor to the Soviet Union and thereby has assumed thelatter’s in-ternational and internal obligations. Russia remains the only northernneighbor of Mongolia.Our most immediate concern with Russia is whether it will continue thepolicies of the Soviet Union which, in turn, raises the question whether Russiawill identify its national interests with those pf the Soviet Union. As Russiasucceeds to the interests, rights, and obligations of the Soviet Union, it is verylikely that it will do so.It should be noted that Mongolia’s greatest importance to the Soviet Unionlay in its geopolitical location. Mongolia constituted a shield for the SovietUnion in Northeast Asia. In addition, the Soviet Union’s support for Mongoliawas ideologically motivated.The Russian government has stated that it will honor all agreements be-tween the Soviet Union and China, including the Sino-Soviet joint statement of1989. The political core of this statement is similar to the Sino-Soviet agreementof 1924 and differs only in changed time and conditions. The obligation, whichin 1966 had been stipulated under Article 5 of theTreaty of Friendship, Coopera-tion and Mutual Assistance between the Mongolian People’s Republic and theUSSR, was concluded under the shadow of Sino-Soviet ideological confronta-tion, and today it is actually in limbo.Given the fact that there were never any permanent consulting mecha-nisms on security matters nor any joint command and combined forces whichare based on a legal framework, Mongolia and the Soviet Union were never truesecurity allies.They were only defense allies within the narrow sense of Sino-Sovietrelations. The alliance, which was based on the principle of “friendship and all-round cooperation with the Soviet Union as Mongolia’s only security guaran-tee.” has declined to peaceful coexistence. Defense cooperation between thetwo countries was suspended except for ongoing technical talks to complete theRussian withdrawal.It is normal behavior in inter-state relations that the security policy of agreat power toward its neighbor is based on peaceful coexistence. If one sup-poses that Russia’s security interests are identical to those of the Soviet Union,such a supposition could be based on geopolitical and economic interests be-tween the two, which have been and will continue to remain the same in thefuture.Russia’s current military impotence and economic troubles will undoubt-edly encourage it to move closer to Chirm. Such a policy, in turn, would have a11 Number 1, 1994The Mongolian Journal of International Affairsfavorable impact on the peaceful environment of Mongolia. Nevertheless,Russia’s security interests in Mongolia should also continue to be identified inthe context of Sino-Russian relations in the long-term future. Furthermore, it ispossible, if not immediately likely, that this interest could be identified beyondthose relations.Meanwhile, it appears that Russia will continue to maintain its currentrelations with Mongolia not necessarily at the risk of alienating Mongolia but tomaintain a balance of interests to Russia’s advantage. In light of this, there is aneed for frequent consultations concerning security issues between Mongoliaand Russia based on new ideas and interests.The China FactorThe changes taking place in Sino-Mongolian relations have not comeinternally but as a byproduct of both global political transformation and re-gional strategic changes. It is vitally important to understand the logic of theSino-Mongolian rapprochement and to scrutinize the ups and downs of thisprocess. Improving Sino-Soviet relations since the middle of the 1980s have hadimplications for Sino-Mongolian relations. Previously, Mongolia was not in aposition to unilaterally deviate from the Soviet alliance. But deviation becameinevitable as a result of the full normalization of Sino-Soviet relations. Trueneutrality, however, will be most difficult for Mongolia to achieve, situated as itis between Russia and China. Mongolia has always been willing to accept helpfrom either neighboring nation if that would benefit its national interest.Sino-Mongolian relations are now entering a new phase, and both coun-tries will have new opportunities to build better relations, casting off all thebarriers which had their basis in Sino-Soviet confrontation. The close connec-tion between Sino-Russian and Sino-Mongolian relations will remain a part ofthe new international order in Northeast Asia, but it is becoming clear that theability of Sino-Russian relations to alter Mongolia’s relations with China is di-minishing. This is in the best interests of Mongolia and China.The normalization and gradual expansion of Sino-Mongolian relations haveimportant foreign policy implications for Mongolia and have opened new op-portunities for its security policy that would have been impossible to imagineonly a few years ago. Since the signing of the agreement on the complete with-drawal of Soviet troops from Mongolia, Sino-Mongolian defense exchangeshave been increasing. Relations with China have also grown stronger primarilyas a result of economic considerations Although China is preoccupied with Number 1, 199412The Mongolian Journal of International Affairsdomestic economic problems, its assistance to Mongolia has gradually increasedas a result of the new relationship between the countries.China’s present and future economic involvement in Mongolia has twoimplications for bilateral relations; first, China’s economic involvement will greatlyincrease and, second, such economic involvement will strengthen other formsof Chinese interest in Mongolia. Because these two trends may eventually col-lide and contradict each other, we should pursue policies which will accommo-date both trends and thus avoid future collisions.Historically, Mongolia has viewed both neighbors’ policies on many po-litical-strategic issues with caution and even apprehension. Today, historicallessons should certainly be taken into account, but we should not allow our-selves to be trapped by history as we formulate our national security policy.Mongolia’s Security in the Changing International OrderSince the end of the cold war, there have been new developments in North-east Asia, but it is still too early to know precisely their implications for anemerging international order. The many factors determining the strategic envi-ronment of Northeast Asia are characterized by two phenomena. On one hand,some cold war conditions have continued. They include a lack of progress inarms reductions, a Korean peninsula still caught between cold war confronta-tion and post-cold war uncertainties, and the Russo-Japanese dispute over theso-called Northern Territories issue. On the other hand, tensions among the keyactors have been lowered. These cross-cutting trends very much complicateeffective security policies at both national and multilateral levels.The Gulf War demonstrated that the bipolar world, which came into beingin 1945, has ended. The end of bipolarity has not, however, ushered in an era offull multipolarity. Even though the nations of Northeast Asia were not directlyinvolved in the U.S.-led international coalition that defeated aggression againstKuwait, they have nonetheless been affected, and their security requires thatthey be clear on the Gulf War’s implications.Mongolia has drawn its own lessons from the Gulf War. Given Mongolia’sweakness, it could, theoretically at least, easily become another Kuwait. Mongoliahas also entertained the idea that the international community, supported bygreat powers, could transform the United Nations into an effective peace-keep-ing organization in regional conflicts.As a result of the reduction of global tensions, the world seems to bemoving to a new order where the primary sources of conflict are no longer global13 Number 1, 1994The Mongolian Journal of International Affairsmilitary threats, but ethnic, religious and territorial disputes. Although no newworld order is likely to emerge any time soon, the need for one is here now. Givensuch an environment, none of the political actors in Northeast Asia has yetrevealed what kind of foreign policy it is prepared to follow in its search of asystem of security that would be conducive to the area.Clearly the new post-cold war international order is intended to be globaland its principles universal. However, if the New World order is Eurocentric,based upon Western values, and uses relationships between one of the greatpowers and its allies only, it will be too narrow to succeed politically and wouldbe particularly unsuited for Northeast Asia. Quite briefly, the following featurescould be applied to the emerging international order:a. Increasing interdependence of economies, resources, environments andtechnologies,b. Diminished importance or breakdown of existing alliances and higher pri-orities given to general non-alignment and multilateral cooperationc. Increased importance of regional balances of powerd. Use of military power becoming impractical and meaningless; ande. Increased importance of the combination of reliance of international co-operation and self-defense.In a new international order, Mongolia’s strategy will not be the same as inthe past when it was under the Soviet umbrella. Rather, it may call for Mongoliato assume its own defense burden under an emerging “restricted non-alliancepolicy.”Given its unfavorable geographical position and heavy dependence onfueling sources of arms, Mongolia should seek a combination of political andmilitary policy, perhaps putting more emphasis on diplomacy in security policy.After two years of heated debate, it can be said that people in Mongolian de-fense circles generally accept this idea.Although the choices available to Mongolia in international relations arelimited due to its landlocked situation, its new role will be affected by its open-door policy which will enable Mongolia to join multilateral cooperation inNorth-east Asia. The establishment in Mongolia of its own channels to theoutside world in the emerging multiplier structure diminishes somewhat thecountry’s heavy reliance on its two neighbors. With deterrent conditions therebyprovided, Mongolia can more safely expand its efforts to extend contacts far Number 1, 199414The Mongolian Journal of International Affairsbeyond Inner Asia. Consequently. Mongolia should focus more efforts on dip-lomatic solutions to ensure its security.As Mongolia’s policy of national security would be dominated by politicalconsiderations, Mongolia should pursue a national defense policy which isbased on the concept of “flexible defense diplomacy” under which Mongoliawould develop a military doctrine that aims at an ability to protect at least someimportant places of its territory in case of an emergency until the world commu-nity comes to Mongolia’s assistance. It is more likely, therefore, that Mongoliawill emphasize international efforts to develop sufficient and effective mecha-nisms of quickDecision-making in the world community which is important Ro the sur-vival of small countries. That is why Mongolia supports the United Nations’increasing role in crisis resolution.When formulating a security policy tailored to a new international orderand with the changing policy of political and military commitments of Mongoliatoward its neighbors, Mongolia should be ready to meet new challenges arisingfrom the nation’s changing security requirements both internally and externally.

The Changing International Order and Mongolia’s Security

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The Changing International Order and Mongolia’s Security

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