Schimmer, Ralf

Archivio Giuliano Marini

Open access is possible!  Preparing for the Transit ion from Subscriptions to Open Access AISA Annual Congress Pisa, 22 October 2015 Disrupting the subscription journal’s business model…  … for the necessary large-scale transformation to open access  http://dx.doi.org/10.17617/1.3 Published 28 April 2015  together with data publication: http://dx.doi.org/10.17617/1.2 2 Enough money already in the system Global subscription spending  7.6 billion Euro Annually published articles  (according to Web of Science) 1.5 million Current expense per article  ~ 5,000 Euro 3 APC levels, current evidence German OpenAPC Initiative at https://github.com/OpenAPC/openapc-de 4 APC levels, current evidence • SCOAP³ < 1,100 EUR • APC evidence published by Wellcome Trust and Austrian Science Fund (FWF)  • Cap applied by German Research Foundation for APC funds = 2,000 EUR 5 Scenario of transformation based on current operating numbers per year  Subscription market today Global market volume  7.6 bn EUR 1.5 M research papers (WoS);  up to ~ 2 M overall 5,000 EUR/ article WoS; 3,800 EUR/ article overall Global basis volume  4 bn EUR 2 M research papers 2,000 EUR/article Global view After an OA transformation 6 Publication volume of selected European countries  Total publication volume Articles and reviews in Web of Science 60 40 20 0 100 80 120 2012 2009 2013 2011 2010 2008 2004 2006 2005 2007 Number of  articles p.a. (in K) Year of the publication Germany Great Britain France The dark part of the columns marks the share of articles with a corresponding author from this country (≤ 70%). 7 140 144 92 260 Output volume and expenses in DE, UK, and FR  Publication data 2013 103 109 71 Total number of articles (in K) Articles relevant to expenses (in K) 46 72 70 APC € 2,000 >200 >120 Expenses Open Access (in M €) Expenses subscriptions (in M €) ~45% ~23% ~30% After an    OA trans-formation 8 Close-up country view: share of major publishers in Germany 2013 N = 103,000 journal publications Springer  (13,000) Elsevier (21,000) Wiley (13,000) Publications Library expenses Springer  (10,000) Wiley  (9,000) Share of overall publications Wiley Springer Elsevier Typical shares of journal expenses Share of publications with  corresponding author no cost Elsevier  (14,000) 9 79% 78% 78% 77% 77% 76% 75% 74% 74% 73% 46,301 papers x 2,000 € =  ~ 92.6m € 46,301 papers x 1,300 € =  ~ 60.2m € Output  vo lume in  I ta ly  Share of publications with a corresponding author from Italy Data according to Palzenberger, M. (2015). Number of Scholarly Articles per Country. http://dx.doi.org/10.17617/1.2 39.609 41.180 43.515 46.346 49.049 51.552 52.897 55.523 58.880 63.352 31.360 32.197 34.063 35.896 37.674 39.174 39.534 41.190 43.438 46.301 0100002000030000400005000060000700002004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Number of  articles p.a. Italy Publication volumes and correspondig author shares Articles and reviews in Web of Science  totalcorresponding74 % 2013 calculation span 10 7.6 bn EUR Subscription market 10% Open Access market share:  13% article; 4% costs Overcoming the subscription system: transformation of the subscription budget Spend Potential for  new services ≥ 3.6 bn Eur p.a. Spend   Global Open Access market ≤ 4 bn EUR p.a. Global subscription market 7.6 bn EUR p.a. 11 8-9 December 2015 Staging the Open Access Transformation of Subscription Journals Subscription payments mus be stopped Global concerted action needed 12 Thank you SWOT analysis for the concept of an innovative quality certification system  14 Strength: • Proof of principle/concept already existing • arXiv as flagship with robust infrastructure and community  Opportunity: • Win back control over publishing for scholars • Bring new balance & opportunity in publishing system Weakness: • Preprint culture as foundation not very widespread  • Prestige/career considerations rest with existing journal system  Threat: • Seems easy & often proposed; but in reality not much real uptake • Inertia in existing system to prevent any real change 

Open access is possible!

Preparing for the Transition from Subscriptions to Open Access

Archivio Marini

Open access is possible! 
 Preparing for the Transit ion from 
Subscriptions to Open Access 
AISA Annual Congress 
Pisa, 22 October 2015 
Disrupting the subscription journal’s 
business model…  
… for the necessary large-scale 
transformation to open access 
 
http://dx.doi.org/10.17617/1.3 
Published 28 April 2015 
 
together with data publication: 
http://dx.doi.org/10.17617/1.2 
2 
Enough money already in the system 
Global subscription spending  7.6 billion Euro 
Annually published articles  
(according to Web of Science) 
1.5 million 
Current expense per article  ~ 5,000 Euro 
3 
APC levels, current evidence 
German OpenAPC Initiative at https://github.com/OpenAPC/openapc-de 
4 
APC levels, current evidence 
• SCOAP³ < 1,100 EUR 
• APC evidence published by Wellcome 
Trust and Austrian Science Fund (FWF)  
• Cap applied by German Research 
Foundation for APC funds = 2,000 EUR 
5 
Scenario of transformation based on 
current operating numbers per year  
Subscription 
market today 
Global market 
volume  
7.6 bn EUR 
1.5 M research 
papers (WoS);  
up to ~ 2 M overall 
5,000 EUR/ article 
WoS; 
3,800 EUR/ article 
overall 
Global basis 
volume  
4 bn EUR 
2 M research papers 2,000 EUR/article 
Global view 
After an OA 
transformation 
6 
Publication volume of selected 
European countries  
Total publication volume 
Articles and reviews in Web of Science 
60 
40 
20 
0 
100 
80 
120 
2012 2009 2013 2011 2010 2008 2004 2006 2005 2007 
N
u
m
b
er
 o
f 
 a
rt
ic
le
s 
p
.a
. (
in
 K
) 
Year of the publication 
Germany Great Britain France 
The dark part of the columns marks the share of articles 
with a corresponding author from this country (≤ 70%). 
7 
140 144 
92 
260 
Output volume and expenses in DE, UK, and FR  
Publication data 2013 
103 
109 
71 
Total number of 
articles (in K) 
Articles relevant to 
expenses (in K) 
46 
72 70 
APC 
€ 2,000 
>200 
>120 
Expenses 
Open Access 
(in M €) 
Expenses 
subscriptions 
(in M €) 
~45% 
~23% 
~30% 
After an    
OA trans-
formation 
8 
Close-up country view: share of major 
publishers in Germany 2013 
N = 103,000 journal publications 
Springer  
(13,000) 
Elsevier 
(21,000) 
Wiley 
(13,000) 
Publications Library expenses 
Springer  
(10,000) 
Wiley  
(9,000) 
Share of overall 
publications 
Wiley Springer 
Elsevier 
Typical shares of 
journal expenses 
Share of publications with  
corresponding author 
no cost 
Elsevier  
(14,000) 
9 
79% 78% 78% 77% 77% 76% 75% 74% 74% 73% 
46,301 papers x 2,000 € =  
~ 92.6m € 
46,301 papers x 1,300 € =  
~ 60.2m € 
Output  vo lume in  I ta ly  
Share of publications with a corresponding author from Italy 
Data according to Palzenberger, M. (2015). Number of Scholarly Articles per Country. http://dx.doi.org/10.17617/1.2 
39.609 
41.180 
43.515 
46.346 
49.049 
51.552 52.897 
55.523 
58.880 
63.352 
31.360 
32.197 
34.063 
35.896 
37.674 39.174 
39.534 
41.190 
43.438 
46.301 
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
N
u
m
b
er
 o
f 
 a
rt
ic
le
s 
p
.a
. 
Italy 
Publication volumes and correspondig author shares 
Articles and reviews in Web of Science 
 
total
corresponding
74 % 
2013 calculation span 
10 
7.6 bn EUR 
Subscription market 10% 
Open Access market share: 
 13% article; 4% costs 
Overcoming the subscription system: 
transformation of the subscription budget 
Spend 
Potential for  
new services 
≥ 3.6 bn Eur p.a. 
Spend 
  
Global 
Open Access market 
≤ 4 bn EUR p.a. 
Global 
subscription market 
7.6 bn EUR p.a. 
11 
8-9 December 2015 
Staging the Open Access Transformation of 
Subscription Journals 
Subscription payments mus be stopped 
Global concerted action needed 
12 
Thank you 
SWOT analysis for the concept of an 
innovative quality certification system  
14 
Strength: 
• Proof of principle/concept already 
existing 
• arXiv as flagship with robust 
infrastructure and community  
Opportunity: 
• Win back control over publishing 
for scholars 
• Bring new balance & opportunity 
in publishing system 
Weakness: 
• Preprint culture as foundation not 
very widespread  
• Prestige/career considerations 
rest with existing journal system  
Threat: 
• Seems easy & often proposed; but 
in reality not much real uptake 
• Inertia in existing system to 
prevent any real change 


Open access is possible! Preparing for the Transition from Subscriptions to Open Access

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Archivio Giuliano Marini

Archivio Marini