Statistic Approach versus Artificial Intelligence for Rainfall Prediction Based on Data Series

Abstract

This paper proposed a new idea in comparing two common predictors i.e. the statistic method and\ud artificial intelligence (AI) for rainfall prediction using empirical data series. The statistic method uses Auto-\ud Regressive Integrated Moving (ARIMA) and Adaptive Splines Threshold Autoregressive (ASTAR), most favorable\ud statistic tools, while in the AI, combination of Genetic Algorithm-Neural Network (GA-NN) is chosen. The results\ud show that ASTAR gives best prediction compare to others, in term of root mean square (RMSE) and following trend\ud between prediction and actual