The bulletin on Kazakhstan reports that favourable weather conditions helped spring sowing to be completed on time, and emergence has been satisfactory despite reduced water supply. Yield forecasts are close to the historical trend for spring cereals but more rainfall is needed to sustain this fair outlook.The main winter wheat producing areas presented soil moisture deficits during most of the growing period, and hot temperatures during the critical stage of grain filling negatively affected yield formation; therefore our forecasts are below the 5-year average.JRC.D.5 - Food Securit

BARUTH Bettina

BASSU Simona

NISINI SCACCHIAFICHI Luigi

RONCHETTI Giulia

English

JRC Publications Repository

   JRC MARS Bulletin - Global outlook Crop monitoring European neighbourhood Kazakhstan June 2021 Fair yield outlook for spring cereals but decreased prospects for winter cereals   Favourable weather conditions helped spring sowing to be completed on time, and emergence has been satisfactory despite reduced water supply. Yield forecasts are close to the historical trend for spring cereals but more rainfall is needed to sustain this fair outlook. The main winter wheat producing areas presented soil moisture deficits during most of the growing period, and hot temperatures during the critical stage of grain filling negatively affected yield formation; therefore our forecasts are below the 5 year average.  Warmer-than-usual thermal conditions in May and June ensured adequate establishment of spring cereals, which are slightly advanced and show near or slightly below-average leaf area expansion and biomass accumulation.  Crop model indicators such as leaf area index, water limited biomass and storage organ weight are below optimal for winter cereals, as water supply limited growth during most of the growing period and hot temperatures in May and June accelerated crop development, adversely shortening the grain-filling phase and hastening senescence.     Issued: 28 June 2021 JRC MARS Bulletin – Global outlook Kazakhstan, June 2021 JRC MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 28 June 2021 2 Meteorological overview Rainfall deficits and hot temperatures from May to June In general, slightly colder-than-usual thermal conditions prevailed from December until the beginning of May, after which temperatures mostly fluctuated above the average, particularly during the last two weeks of May. Rainfall was typically scarce in December, January and February, and then generally exceeded the average until April. In May and June, precipitation was below the seasonal level, with the exception of normal values in Zapadno-Kazachstanskaya. The period from December to June was particularly dry in Turkestan, with around 30% less rainfall than the long term average (LTA). Radiation was positive in all regions.  - In North Kazakhstan (Severo-Kazachstanskaya, Akmolinskaya, Kustanayskaya oblasts), lower-than-usual average temperatures generally prevailed from December to April, with the most distinct negative thermal anomalies occurring in January and February. During winter, most of the agricultural areas were covered with snow, which started melting in mid-April when minimum temperatures stabilised above zero. From the last dekad of April, prevailing temperatures were close to the LTA and above 5 °C. From the last dekad of May, a hot spell hit these regions. Daily maximum temperatures frequently exceeded 30 °C, reaching 35 °C in Severo-Kazachstanskaya during the last week of May.  Rainfall was below average from December until the second half of February, but later it became more frequent until the end of April. In general, May and June were drier than usual, with precipitation about 20% of the LTA in Kustanayskaya. Cumulative radiation exceeded the average. - In East Kazakhstan (Pavlodarskaya, Vostochno-kazachstanskaya, Karagandinskaya oblasts), daily average temperatures during the review period were colder than usual until mid-May. Above-average temperatures dominated during the second half of May and in June. Temperatures were particularly high at the end of May in Pavlodarskaya, where maximum temperatures reached 35 °C. After a dry start to the review period (1 December – 20 June) in Pavlodarskaya, from February rainfall remained mainly above average until the beginning of May, after which it returned to below seasonal values. The other two regions received lower rainfall than usual, with the exception of the rainy month of March. For the review period as a whole, the east received 20% less rainfall than usual. Radiation was slightly above average.  - In Northwest Kazakhstan (Zapadno-kazachstanskaya and Aktyubinskaya oblasts), temperatures fluctuated around the average. In the second half of May and first two dekads of June, daily temperatures considerably exceeded the average. For the review period as a whole, rainfall was close to the average in Zapadno-kazachstanskaya. In contrast, Aktyubinskaya oblast was characterised by below-average precipitation values (mainly concentrated in March). Cumulative radiation was positive in all regions. - In the agricultural regions of South Kazakhstan (Almatinskaya, Jambylskaya, Turkestan, Kyzylordinskaya oblasts), cold waves occurred in December and January. Temperatures fluctuated around the average from February until April, and increased to above-average values in May and June.  A rainfall deficit prevailed throughout the period in Turkestan and Kyzylordinskaya, while Almatinskaya and Jambylskaya were mainly dry, but close to seasonal values in March and April. Radiation was slightly above average values.  aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaJRC MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 28 June 2021 3         JRC MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 28 June 2021 4 Crop growth conditions  Cumulative NDVI values from 1 May to 20 June show several negative anomalies. In the south, this can be attributed to the seasonal lack of rainfall and to the warm temperatures in May and June that accelerated crop senescence for winter wheat. The anomaly in the east can be explained by the negative impact of thermal surplus on crop growth, combined with decreased water supply in May. This is also confirmed in general by the lower-than-usual water balance. In the northern part of the country, the prevailing positive anomaly indicates good crop establishment for spring crops.      The map displays the differences between the cumulative Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1 May to 20 June 2021 and the short-term average (STA, 2016-2020) for the same period. Positive anomalies (in green) reflect above-average canopy density or early crop development, while negative anomalies (in red) reflect below-average biomass accumulation or late crop development.     Winter cereals High temperatures during grain filling reduce yield expectations  Reduced growth during the growing cycle and high temperatures during grain filling decreased yield expectations to below the average for winter cereals. - In East Kazakhstan (Pavlodarskaya, Vostochno-kazachstanskaya, Karagandinskaya oblasts), crop development remained slightly delayed for wheat during winter, due to colder-than-usual thermal conditions. Additionally, a soil moisture deficit reduced crop growth. Crop model indicators (leaf area index, water limited biomass, storage organ weight) are below average for winter cereals and yield expectations are moderate. Favourable conditions during the remainder of the grain-filling period might slightly improve the final prospect.  - In Northwest Kazakhstan (Zapadno-kazachstanskaya and Aktyubinskaya oblasts), soil moisture contents were generally adequate in the regions where winter wheat is mainly cultivated. In these western areas, biomass accumulation was close to the average, but high temperatures at the end of the period partially reduced  JRC MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 28 June 2021 5 the positive outlook and yield forecasts are close to the average. - In South Kazakhstan (Almatinskaya, Jambylskaya, Turkestan, Kyzylordinskaya oblasts), winter wheat (which is mainly confined to South Kazakhstan) passed the winter months in good condition and started re-growth after dormancy in mid-March. Phenological crop development was slightly delayed until May, and then became slightly advanced. The below-optimal water supply limited growth until May, when hot temperatures hit the winter crops, accelerating crop development and adversely shortening the grain-filling phase. The high temperatures hastened senescence and crop biomass values remained sub-optimal. Yield forecasts for winter cereals are below the average.    Spring cereals and grain maize Fair outlook for spring cereals despite dry May In the country’s main spring cereal producing region in the North, the sowing campaign was completed on time under warm and dry weather conditions. Crops established well despite reduced soil moisture. The development of spring crops is in general advanced and the outlook is close to the average, but further summer rainfall is needed to sustain this outlook. - In the most important spring cereal producing macroregion, North Kazakhstan (Kustanayskaya, Severo-kazachstanskaya and Akmolinskaya oblasts), the sowing campaign started slightly delayed because of a late spring, but the dry and warm weather in May allowed the sowing campaign to be completed on time during the first dekad of June. Despite the reduced soil moisture, crops established well, sustained by light precipitation in June. Crops are in good condition. The development of spring cereals is slightly advanced and in general at tillering phase. According to our model simulations and analysis of satellite images, leaf area expansion and biomass accumulation are near to or slightly below average levels for spring cereals. Increased water supply is needed to maintain the yield potential for spring crops. Yield forecasts are close to average for spring cereals.  - In East Kazakhstan (Pavlodarskaya, Vostochno-kazachstanskaya, Karagandinskaya oblasts), sowings were concluded within the optimal time window, at the beginning of June. The higher-than-usual temperatures at the end of May, combined with a soil moisture deficit, constrained growth and leaf area expansion, particularly in Pavlodarskaya. According to our model simulations, growth indicators are slightly below the average. Yield forecasts are maintained slightly lower than the trends for spring cereals. - In Northwest Kazakhstan (Zapadno-kazachstanskaya and Aktyubinskaya oblasts), timely sowing at the beginning of May and above-average temperatures ensured good establishment of spring crops. Crop development is generally advanced. Soil moisture contents were generally adequate in Zapadno-Kazachstanskaya but below average in Aktyubinskaya. Adequate water supply has resulted in close-to-average canopy expansion for spring cereals in Zapadno-Kazachstanskaya. Water shortages led to below-average leaf area indices in Aktyubinskaya, where spring cereals are mainly cultivated. The yield forecasts are slightly below the average for spring cereals. - In South Kazakhstan (Almatinskaya, Jambylskaya, Turkestan, Kyzylordinskaya oblasts), sowing of spring grain crops started during the first dekad of April and experienced slow initial progress due to the rainfall in April. However, it later progressed well and was mainly completed during the first dekad of May. Spring wheat and barley emerged under good conditions, but high temperatures combined with below-average precipitation negatively affected growth from the second half of May. Our models show sub-optimal leaf area development for spring cereals and yield forecasts are below the trend.   Grain maize in Kazakhstan is generally irrigated. Biomass accumulation is therefore close to the potential level and the inter-annual variation of yield indicators is relatively small. The sowing campaign started at the end of April. Grain maize crops are currently advanced and the current yield expectation is fair, with yield forecasts above average.  JRC MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 28 June 2021 6           JRC MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 28 June 2021 7 Crop yield forecast         Avg 5yrs 2020MARS 2021 forecasts%21/5yrs %21/20Winter wheat 1.96 1.98 1.88 – 4.4 – 5.4Spring wheat 1.14 1.15 1.15 + 0.2 – 0.2Winter barley 2.24 1.87 2.15 – 3.9 + 15Spring barley 1.47 1.34 1.43 – 2.6 + 7.0Grain maize 5.92 6.18 6.21 + 4.8 + 0.4Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - June 2021 BulletinCropYield (t/ha)Avg 5yrs 2020MARS 2021 forecasts%21/5yrs %21/20Kazakhstan 1.96 1.98 1.88 – 4.4 – 5.4East Kazakhstan 2.11 1.57 2.08 – 1.1 + 33North Kazakhstan — — — — —Northwest Kazakhstan 2.05 2.28 2.04 – 0.4 – 11South Kazakhstan 1.94 1.96 1.83 – 5.6 – 6.2Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — —CountryYield (t/ha)Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - winter wheat - June 2021 BulletinAvg 5yrs 2020MARS 2021 forecasts%21/5yrs %21/20Kazakhstan 1.14 1.15 1.15 + 0.2 – 0.2East Kazakhstan 1.07 1.01 1.05 – 2.4 + 4.3North Kazakhstan 1.15 1.17 1.16 + 0.8 – 0.2Northwest Kazakhstan 1.04 1.02 0.99 – 4.4 – 2.8South Kazakhstan 1.87 1.86 1.79 – 3.9 – 3.6Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — —CountryYield (t/ha)Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - spring wheat - June 2021 BulletinAvg 5yrs 2020MARS 2021 forecasts%21/5yrs %21/20Kazakhstan 2.24 1.87 2.15 – 3.9 + 15East Kazakhstan — — — — —North Kazakhstan — — — — —Northwest Kazakhstan — — — — —South Kazakhstan 2.24 1.87 2.15 – 3.9 + 15Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — —Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - winter barley - June 2021 BulletinCountryYield (t/ha)Avg 5yrs 2020MARS 2021 forecasts%21/5yrs %21/20Kazakhstan 1.47 1.34 1.43 – 2.6 + 7.0East Kazakhstan 1.21 1.09 1.18 – 2.4 + 8.3North Kazakhstan 1.42 1.26 1.38 – 2.9 + 9.7Northwest Kazakhstan 1.02 1.01 0.99 – 3.3 – 1.9South Kazakhstan 2.04 1.95 2.01 – 1.7 + 2.9Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — —Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - spring barley - June 2021 BulletinCountryYield (t/ha)Avg 5yrs 2020MARS 2021 forecasts%21/5yrs %21/20Kazakhstan 5.92 6.18 6.21 + 4.8 + 0.4East Kazakhstan — — — — —North Kazakhstan — — — — —Northwest Kazakhstan — — — — —South Kazakhstan 5.92 6.18 6.21 + 4.8 + 0.4Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — —Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - grain maize - June 2021 BulletinCountryYield (t/ha)NB: Sources:The column header '%21/5yrs’ stands for the 2021 change with respect to the 5-year average (%). Similarly, '%21/20’ stands for the 2021 change with respect to 2020 (%).Yields are forecast for crops with more than 10 000 ha per country.1990-2020 data for area and yields come from Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan - Statistics committee and Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan.2021 yields come from MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (output up to 20.06.2020).JRC MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 28 June 2021                                         The JRC MARS Bulletin – Crop monitoring European Neighbourhood is a JRC–European Commission publication from MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5 – Directorate for Sustainable Resources) JRC MARS Bulletins are available at https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins Analysis and reports S. Bassu, L. Nisini, G. Ronchetti Reporting support  SeproTec, I. Biavetti, G. Mulhern Edition  S. Bassu, B. Baruth Data production MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5), WENR (NL), MeteoGroup (NL), VITO (BE) Contact JRC D5/MARS4CAST  JRCMARSBULLETIN@ec.europa.eu  Legal notice Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of this publication.  Disclaimer The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official European Commission position.    Technical note  The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as a reference is based on an archive of data covering 1980-2020.     MARS stands for Monitoring Agricultural Resources © European Union, 2021 PDF: KJ-BQ-21-007-EN-N ISSN 2600-2817  doi:10.2760/75724 Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the whole policy cycle.  

JRC MARS Bulletin - Global outlook - Crop monitoring European neighbourhood - Kazakhstan - June 2021

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC124846/JRC124846_01.pdf

JRC MARS Bulletin - Global outlook - Crop monitoring European neighbourhood - Kazakhstan - June 2021

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

JRC Publications Repository