Adequate temperatures and rainfall sustained an average growth and production outlook for winter cereals. Spring cereals have been sown within the optimal window, but more rain is needed to sustain the favourable yield outlook.JRC.D.5 - Food Securit

BASSU Simona

NISINI SCACCHIAFICHI Luigi

RONCHETTI Giulia

VAN DEN BERG Maurits

English

JRC Publications Repository

   JRC MARS Bulletin - Global outlook Crop monitoring European neighbourhood Kazakhstan June 2022 Average prospect for winter and spring cereals   Adequate temperatures and rainfall sustained an average growth and production outlook for winter cereals. Spring cereals have been sown within the optimal window, but more rain is needed to sustain the favourable yield outlook. Soil moisture levels have generally been adequate under winter cereals, which show close to average leaf area development and biomass accumulation in the South and West. In western Kazakhstan, above-average precipitation in May provided beneficial conditions for winter cereals, but slowed the progress of spring sowing. In some eastern regions, reduced soil moisture in May started to negatively affect the leaf area of winter wheat crops. In northern regions, drier-than-usual conditions have prevailed since about one month before the sowing of spring cereals. Nevertheless, spring cereals are currently in good condition, but more rainfall is needed to sustain growth and the average forecasted yields.    Issued: 27 June 2022 JRC MARS Bulletin – Global outlook Kazakhstan, June 2022 JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 27 June 2022 2  Meteorological overview Slightly higher-than-usual temperatures prevailed during the review period (1 December to 20 June) without reaching extremes. Since May, colder-than-usual conditions have been observed in the West. Rainfall was generally close to the average until March, after which it decreased below seasonal values. In the western areas rain exceeded the average, whereas it was irregular across the months and the regions in the South.  - In North Kazakhstan (Severo-Kazachstanskaya, Akmolinskaya and Kustanayskaya oblasts), the review period was overall slightly warmer than usual. After a particularly cold March, average temperatures since April have remained above 0 ⁰C. Some frosts occurred in April and the beginning of May. The most distinct thermal anomaly occurred in April, when above-average temperatures persisted for most of the month, reaching daily average values 10 ⁰C above the LTA. These temperatures accelerated the melting of snow in the fields. May and June presented temperatures close to the LTA (slightly below the LTA in Kustanayskaya). Precipitation was generally close to average until March, with slightly lower than usual values in Severo-Kazachstanskaya; but it became scarce in April, May and June, although to a lesser extent in Kustanayskaya. - In East Kazakhstan (Pavlodarskaya, Vostochno-kazachstanskaya and Karagandinskaya oblasts), daily temperatures fluctuated mainly around the LTA during the winter months, and after a colder-than-usual March, temperatures prevailed above the LTA. The period was dry in Vostochno-kazachstanskaya and Karagandiskaya, whereas rainfall in Pavlodarskaya was close to the LTA until April after which it became scarce. - In North-West Kazakhstan (Zapadno-kazachstanskaya and Aktyubinskaya oblasts), unusually cold weather was observed during the months of March and May, whereas temperatures fluctuated around the average for the rest of the review period. Above-average rainfall persisted throughout the review period in Zapadno-kazachstanskaya, while in Aktyubinskaya precipitation was close to seasonal values and increased to above-average levels from May onwards. - In the agricultural regions of South Kazakhstan (Almatinskaya, Jambylskaya, Turkestan and Kyzylordinskaya oblasts), daily average temperatures were mainly above the LTA during the review period, with the exception of a few colder–than-usual days at the end of March and the end of May. The highest maximum temperatures occurred during the first dekad of June in Kyzylordinskaya (38.5 °C). The total number of days with maximum temperatures that exceeded 30 °C in May and June was slightly above the LTA. Rainfall strongly varied in time and among the different regions. The winter months presented close to average precipitation until February, with the exception of below-average values in Almatinskaya. Abundant rainfall characterised the month of March, whereas April was dry. Finally, after a wet May, June became dry.    JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 27 June 2022 3          JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 27 June 2022 4  Crop canopy conditions The map displays the differences between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) cumulated from 1 May to 20 June 2022 and the short-term average (STA, 2017-2021) for the same period. Positive anomalies (in green) reflect above-average canopy density or early crop development while negative anomalies (in red) reflect below-average biomass accumulation or late crop development.   NDVI anomalies from 1 May to 20 June mainly show average growth conditions (yellow colours on the map) that are related to the prevailing mild temperatures and adequate soil moisture levels observed in the South, North and partially in the East. Some regions in the East present a negative anomaly (red colours on the map) that can be explained by the negative impact of the combined rainfall deficit with the increased temperatures on the crop growth of winter cereals. In the West, abundant precipitation favoured above-average crop biomass accumulation, as reflected in the positive NDVI anomalies (green colours) on the map.   JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 27 June 2022 5  Crop growth conditions Winter cereals Mild temperatures and variable rainfall sustain an average yield outlook Winter cereals present average development and growth as adequate soil moisture and moderate temperatures sustained growth during most of the growing season. Yield expectations are slightly above average at national level.  - In North Kazakhstan, (Kustanayskaya, Severo-kazachstanskaya and Akmolinskaya oblasts), our models indicate crop development in line with an average season, but with slight delays in Kustanayskaya. Model-based indicators show a decrease in leaf area expansion in northern areas since May, whereas crops are in particularly good condition in Kustanayskaya, where mild temperatures and optimal soil moisture ensured above-average growth. Yield forecasts are close to the historical trend. - In East Kazakhstan (Pavlodarskaya, Vostochno-kazachstanskaya, Karagandinskaya oblasts), winter cereals are slightly advanced since May. In Pavlodarskaya, rainy weather supported growth until May, after which leaf area expansion and biomass accumulation started to decline to below average levels due to the decreased water supply. Weather conditions caused more concern in Vostochno-kazachstanskaya, where biomass accumulation has been more affected due to decreased soil water levels. Overall, the yield prospects are moderate.  - In North-West Kazakhstan (Zapadno-kazachstanskaya and Aktyubinskaya oblasts), soil moisture availability was adequate throughout the crop cycle, but colder than usual temperatures in May caused delays to crop development and growth. Our simulation models suggest near- to above-average biomass accumulation. High yields can be still reached in these regions, but unfavourable weather conditions (e.g. heatwaves) during the grain-filling period might reduce the potential.  - In South Kazakhstan (Almatinskaya, Jambylskaya, Turkestan, Kyzylordinskaya oblasts), winter wheat (which is mainly confined to South Kazakhstan) passed the winter months in good condition and started re-growth after dormancy in mid-March. Above-average temperatures in April and May accelerated development, which is currently at the end of the grain-filling phase (i.e. slightly advanced compared with an average year). Rainfall was very variable, but overall, favourable weather conditions prevailed during the crop cycle. Winter crops are in good condition, with near-average biomass accumulation. Yield expectations are slightly above the 5-year average.     JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 27 June 2022 6         JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 27 June 2022 7  Spring cereals and grain maize Fair outlook for spring cereals but more rainfall is neededIn the country’s main spring cereal producing region in the North, the sowing campaign was completed in time under dry weather conditions. Crops established well, despite limited soil moisture availability. However, more rain is needed, particularly in the North and East to sustain continued good growth and maintain the yield potential. Grain maize crops, which are mostly irrigated in Kazakhstan, are slightly advanced and the yield expectations are fair.  - In the most important spring cereal-producing macroregion, North Kazakhstan (Kustanayskaya, Severo-kazachstanskaya and Akmolinskaya oblasts), the sowing campaign was completed on time (during the first dekad of June) under favourably dry weather conditions. Despite a continued rain deficit, particularly in Severo-kazachstanskaya and Akmolinskaya oblasts, the few rainfall events that occurred in June sufficed for crops to establish well. The development of spring cereals is normal for this time of the year. According to our model simulations and analysis of satellite imagery, leaf area expansion and biomass accumulation are in line with an average season in Severo-kazachstanskaya and Akmolinskaya, but slightly above-average in Kustanayskaya, thanks to the more adequate water supply observed in that region. However, increased water supply is needed to maintain the yield potential for spring crops in all regions. Yield forecasts for spring cereals are close to average. - In East Kazakhstan (Pavlodarskaya, Vostochno-kazachstanskaya, Karagandinskaya oblasts), despite the dry May, sowings were concluded within the optimal time window, around the first dekad of June. Soil moisture levels decreased below the average in many regions in May, but without reaching critical values and without constraining growth and leaf area expansion. According to our model simulations crop growth indicators are in line with an average season, and crop development has become advanced since May. Yield forecasts for spring cereals are maintained close to the historical trends. - In North-West Kazakhstan (Zapadno-kazachstanskaya and Aktyubinskaya oblasts), sowings were slightly delayed by the rainy weather but concluded in June, within the suitable window. Rainfall ensured a good establishment of spring crops. Crop development is generally slightly delayed, due to the delayed sowing and cold May. Soil moisture contents were replenished in all regions. Model-based crop growth indicators, such as leaf area and biomass are above average and yield expectations for spring cereals are above the historical trend. - In South Kazakhstan (Almatinskaya, Jambylskaya, Turkestan, Kyzylordinskaya oblasts), the sowing of spring cereals started during the end of March and was mainly completed during the second dekad of May. Spring wheat and barley emerged under good conditions, sustained by the rainfall of May. Our models show a normal leaf area development. However, soil moisture levels declined to below-average levels in June and more rainfall combined with moderate temperatures are needed to maintain the favourable prospect. Yield forecasts are close to the historical trend, and above the 5-year average. Grain maize in Kazakhstan is generally irrigated and confined to the South. Biomass accumulation is therefore close to the potential level, and the inter-annual variation of yield indicators is relatively small. The sowing campaign started at the end of April. Grain maize crops are currently slightly advanced and the current yield expectation is fair, with yield forecasts above the 5-year average and in line with the historical trend.   JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 27 June 2022          JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 27 June 2022  Crop yield forecast     Avg 5yrs 2021 2022 %22/5yrs %22/21 Avg 5yrs 2021MARS 2022 forecasts%22/5yrs %22/21 Avg 5yrs 2021 2022 %22/5yrs %22/21Kazakhstan 11 045 11 323 11 743 + 6 + 4 1.09 0.92 1.11 + 2 + 21 12 045 10 385 13 075 + 9 + 26East Kazakhstan 1 271 1 015 1 061 – 17 + 4 1.10 1.32 1.10 – 0 – 17 1 400 1 339 1 168 – 17 – 13North Kazakhstan 9 312 9 857 10 214 + 10 + 4 1.09 0.89 1.11 + 2 + 26 10 179 8 738 11 368 + 12 + 30Nothwest Kazakhstan  414  393  408 – 1 + 4 0.93 0.57 1.04 + 12 + 81  384  225  425 + 11 + 89South Kazakhstan  48  58  60 + 26 + 3 1.73 1.43 1.90 + 10 + 33  83  83  114 + 38 + 37Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - spring wheat - June 2022 BulletinCountryArea (x 1000 ha) Yield (t/ha) Production (x 1000 t)JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 27 June 2022       Avg 5yrs 2021 2022 %22/5yrs %22/21 Avg 5yrs 2021MARS 2022 forecasts%22/5yrs %22/21 Avg 5yrs 2021 2022 %22/5yrs %22/21Kazakhstan 2 477 2 150 2 400 – 3 + 12 1.37 1.10 1.43 + 5 + 31 3 400 2 356 3 443 + 1 + 46East Kazakhstan  403  378  418 + 4 + 11 1.19 1.27 1.19 + 0 – 6  479  478  499 + 4 + 4North Kazakhstan 1 478 1 153 1 301 – 12 + 13 1.31 0.92 1.34 + 2 + 45 1 931 1 063 1 741 – 10 + 64Nothwest Kazakhstan  152  140  155 + 2 + 11 0.92 0.62 0.99 + 8 + 60  139  87  153 + 10 + 77South Kazakhstan  445  480  526 + 18 + 10 1.91 1.52 2.00 + 4 + 32  851  727 1 051 + 23 + 44Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - spring barley - June 2022 BulletinCountryArea (x 1000 ha) Yield (t/ha) Production (x 1000 t)Avg 5yrs 2021 2022 %22/5yrs %22/21 Avg 5yrs 2021MARS 2022 forecasts%22/5yrs %22/21 Avg 5yrs 2021 2022 %22/5yrs %22/21Kazakhstan  533  634  634 + 19 + 0 1.74 1.17 1.85 + 6 + 57  928  744 1 170 + 26 + 57East Kazakhstan  27  44  44 + 62 + 0 2.02 1.89 1.92 – 5 + 1  55  83  84 + 54 + 1North Kazakhstan  10  34  34 + 243 + 0 1.12 0.74 1.92 + 70 + 158  11  26  66 + 485 + 158Nothwest Kazakhstan  69  94  94 + 37 + 0 1.61 0.82 1.90 + 18 + 132  111  77  179 + 61 + 132South Kazakhstan  427  461  461 + 8.0 + 0 1.76 1.21 1.82 + 4 + 51  752  558  841 + 12 + 51Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan -  winter wheat - June 2022 BulletinArea (x 1000 ha) Yield (t/ha) Production (x 1000 t)CountryAvg 5yrs 2021 2022 %22/5yrs %22/21 Avg 5yrs 2021MARS 2022 forecasts%22/5yrs %22/21 Avg 5yrs 2021 2022 %22/5yrs %22/21Kazakhstan 11 578 11 957 12 377 + 7 + 4 1.12 0.93 1.15 + 3 + 24 12 974 11 129 14 245 + 10 + 28East Kazakhstan 1 298 1 059 1 105 – 15 + 4 1.12 1.34 1.13 + 1 – 16 1 455 1 422 1 252 – 14 – 12North Kazakhstan 9 322 9 892 10 249 + 10 + 4 1.09 0.89 1.12 + 2 + 26 10 190 8 763 11 434 + 12 + 30Nothwest Kazakhstan  483  487  502 + 4 + 3 1.02 0.62 1.20 + 17 + 93  495  303  604 + 22 + 100South Kazakhstan  475  519  521 + 10 + 0 1.76 1.23 1.83 + 4 + 48  834  641  954 + 14 + 49Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - total wheat - June 2022 BulletinCountryArea (x 1000 ha) Yield (t/ha) Production (x 1000 t)JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 27 June 2022            Avg 5yrs 2021 2022 %22/5yrs %22/21 Avg 5yrs 2021MARS 2022 forecasts%22/5yrs %22/21 Avg 5yrs 2021 2022 %22/5yrs %22/21Kazakhstan 2 477 2 150 2 400 – 3 + 12 1.37 1.10 1.43 + 5 + 31 3 400 2 356 3 443 + 1 + 46East Kazakhstan  403  378  418 + 4 + 11 1.19 1.27 1.19 + 0 – 6  479  478  499 + 4 + 4North Kazakhstan 1 478 1 153 1 301 – 12 + 13 1.31 0.92 1.34 + 2 + 45 1 931 1 063 1 741 – 10 + 64Nothwest Kazakhstan  152  140  155 + 2 + 11 0.92 0.62 0.99 + 8 + 60  139  87  153 + 10 + 77South Kazakhstan  445  480  526 + 18 + 10 1.91 1.52 2.00 + 4 + 32  851  727 1 051 + 23 + 44Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - total barley - June 2022 BulletinCountryArea (x 1000 ha) Yield (t/ha) Production (x 1000 t)Avg 5yrs 2021 2022 %22/5yrs %22/21 Avg 5yrs 2021MARS 2022 forecasts%22/5yrs %22/21 Avg 5yrs 2021 2022 %22/5yrs %22/21Kazakhstan  154  174  178 + 16 + 3 5.96 6.37 6.30 + 6 – 1  918 1 105 1 122 + 22 + 2East Kazakhstan  7  12  12 + 55 – 5 2.96 2.77 3.17 + 7 + 15  22  34  37 + 66 + 9North Kazakhstan — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —Nothwest Kazakhstan — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —South Kazakhstan  146  161  166 + 14 + 3 6.12 6.64 6.52 + 7 – 2  896 1 071 1 086 + 21 + 1Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - grain maize - June 2022 BulletinCountryArea (x 1000 ha) Yield (t/ha) Production (x 1000 t)NB: Sources:Yields are forecast for crops with more than 10 000 ha per country.1990-2021 data for area and yields come from Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan - Statistics committee, Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan and Agency for Strategic planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan.2022 area copied from 2021 area (winter wheat, winter barley) or estimated from Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan (spring wheat, spring barley, grain maize).2022 yields come from MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (output up to 20.06.2022).The column header '%22/5yrs’ stands for the 2022 change with respect to the 5-year average(%). Similarly, '%22/21’ stands for the 2022 change with respect to 2021(%).JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 27 June 2022  Crop yield forecast                               The JRC MARS Bulletin – Global outlook is a European Commission publication of the Joint Research Centre’s AGRI4CAST project (JRC Food Security Unit – Directorate for Sustainable Resources) JRC MARS Bulletins are available at https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins AGRI4CAST Resources are available at https://agri4cast.jrc.ec.europa.eu  Analysis and reports S. Bassu, L. Nisini, G. Ronchetti Reporting support  SeproTec, I. Biavetti Edition  S. Bassu, M. van den Berg Data production AGRI4CAST (Food Security Unit JRC D5), MARSOP6 Consortium Contact JRCMARSBULLETIN@ec.europa.eu  Legal notice Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of this publication.  Disclaimer  The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official European Commission position.     Technical note  The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as a reference is based on an archive of data covering 1992-2021. The short-term average (STA) used within this Bulletin as a reference is based on an archive of data covering 2017-2021.   © European Union, 2022  PDF: KJ-BQ-22-007-EN-N ISSN 2600-2817 doi:10.2760/024188 Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the whole policy cycle.  

JRC MARS Bulletin - Global outlook - Crop monitoring European neighbourhood - Kazakhstan - June 2022

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JRC MARS Bulletin - Global outlook - Crop monitoring European neighbourhood - Kazakhstan - June 2022

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