Why do ordinary citizens protest? Given the collective action problem, what are the factors motivating individual citizens to participate in social movements? Considering the information and beliefs about possibility of repression, under what conditions would the civil society organize protests? When is it rational for the government to repress mass protests? This dissertation explores the factors motivating ordinary citizens to participate in social movements, with reference to post-handover Hong Kong. It argues that Hongkongers have higher propensity to protest if they have stronger post-materialist values and higher levels of dissatisfaction with how the government is functioning. Post-materialist values and political-oriented grievances interact in enhancing individuals’ tendency to protest. Through a n-person coordination game, this dissertation illustrates that individual citizens will contribute to collective action when they (1) perceive a higher value of the public good, (2) obtain higher expressive benefits, (3) anticipate a higher turnout, and (4) perceive lower costs of participation. Employing an online conjoint survey experiment, this dissertation contends that China-related political issues have higher likelihood of driving ordinary Hongkongers to protest relative to socioeconomic issues. International media coverage, prior belief of a high turnout, and lower probability of police repression also increase the inclination to protest for individual citizens. With a game of incomplete information, this study analyzes the strategic interactions between the regime and the pro-democracy civil society during the 2019 Anti-Extradition Law Movement. It argues that the civil society was uncertain about the extent of Chinese pressure prior to the protests. Though the government initially moved the Extradition Bill forward, protesters mistakenly interpreted the government’s signals and formed low posterior beliefs about a hardline government. The civil society protested with unprecedented turnouts, until increasing evidence of Beijing’s intervention which led to the protest movement’s demise in early 2020.Governmen
