The effect of coastal upwelling on the recruitment and connectivity of
coastal marine populations has rarely been characterized to a level of detail
to be included into sound fishery management strategies. The gooseneck barnacle
(Pollicipes pollicipes) fishery at the Cantabrian Coast (Northern Spain) is
located at the fringes of the NW Spanish Upwelling system. This fishery is
being co-managed through a fine-scale, interspersed set of protected rocks
where each rock receives a distinct level of protection. Such interspersion is
potentially beneficial, but the extent to which such spacing is consistent with
mean larval dispersal distances is as yet unknown. We have simulated the spread
of gooseneck barnacle larvae in the Central Cantabrian Coast using a
high-resolution time-series of current profiles measured at a nearshore
location. During a year of high upwelling activity (2009), theoretical
recruitment success was 94% with peak recruitment predicted 56 km west of the
emission point. However, for a year of low upwelling activity (2011)
theoretical recruitment success dropped to 15.4% and peak recruitment was
expected 13 km east of the emission point. This is consistent with a positive
correlation between catch rates and the Integrated Upwelling Index, using a
4-year lag to allow recruits to reach commercial size. Furthermore, a net
long-term westward larval transport was estimated by means of mitochondrial
cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) sequences for five populations in the
Cantabrian Sea. Our results call into question the role of long distance
dispersal, driven by the mesoscale processes in the area, in gooseneck barnacle
populations and point to the prevalent role of small-scale, asymmetric
connectivity more consistent with the typical scale of the co-management
process in this fishery