Nonlinear Expectation Inference for Direct Uncertainty Quantification of Nonlinear Inverse Problems

Abstract

Most existing inference methods for the uncertainty quantification of nonlinear inverse problems need repetitive runs of the forward model which is computationally expensive for high-dimensional problems, where the forward model is expensive and the inference need more iterations. These methods are generally based on the Bayes' rule and implicitly assume that the probability distribution is unique, which is not the case for scenarios with Knightian uncertainty. In the current study, we assume that the probability distribution is uncertain, and establish a new inference method based on the nonlinear expectation theory for 'direct' uncertainty quantification of nonlinear inverse problems. The uncertainty of random parameters is quantified using the sublinear expectation defined as the limits of an ensemble of linear expectations estimated on samples. Given noisy observed data, the posterior sublinear expectation is computed using posterior linear expectations with highest likelihoods. In contrary to iterative inference methods, the new nonlinear expectation inference method only needs forward model runs on the prior samples, while subsequent evaluations of linear and sublinear expectations requires no forward model runs, thus quantifying uncertainty directly which is more efficient than iterative inference methods. The new method is analysed and validated using 2D and 3D test cases of transient Darcy flows