Ajelli, M.

Arnoldi, D.

Beier, J.

Capelli, G.

Caputo, B.

della Torre, A.

Gobbi, A.

Marini, G.

Marques-Toledo, C.

Merler, S.

Montarsi, F.

Poletti, P.

Pugliese, A.

Rizzoli, A.

Rosa', R.

Solimini, A.

Teixeira, M.

Vespignani, A.

Wilke, A.

Zardini, A.

English

Archivio istituzionale della ricerca - Fondazione Edmund Mach

04/12/23, 09:32 Estimating the potential risk of transmission of arboviruses in the Americas and Europe: A modeling study • Submission 877 • E…https://virtual.oxfordabstracts.com/#/event/3571/submission/877 1/1P3.117Estimating the potential risk of transmission ofarboviruses in the Americas and Europe: A modelingstudyAgnese Zardini , Andrea Gobbi , Fabrizio Montarsi , Beniamino Caputo , Angelo Solimini , CeciliaMarques-Toledo , André Wilke , Roberto Rosà , Giovanni Marini , Daniele Arnoldi , AndreaPugliese , Gioia Capelli , Alessandra della Torre , Mauro Teixeira , John Beier , AnnapaolaRizzoli , Alessandro Vespignani , Marco Ajelli , Stefano Merler , Piero PolettiBruno Kessler Foundation, Italy. Zooprophylactic Experimental Institute of Veneto, Italy. University of Rome La Sapienza Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Italy. Federal University of Minas Gerais Department of Biochemistry and Immunology, Brazil. IndianaUniversity Bloomington School of Public Health, USA. University of Trento Center AgricultureFood Environment, Italy. Edmund Mach Foundation Research and Innovation Centre, Italy. University of Trento Department of Mathematics, Italy. University of Miami   Miller School ofMedicine, USA. Northeastern University, USAAbstractBackground & aims of study. Estimates of the spatiotemporal distribution of differentmosquito vector species and the associated risk of transmission of arboviruses arekey to design adequate policies for preventing local outbreaks and reducing thenumber of human infections in endemic areas.Methods & results. We develop a computational model to quantify the dailyabundance of Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti and the reproduction number of dengue,Zika, and chikungunya in Europe and the Americas, at a resolution of 250 m x 250 m.The model leverages temperature and precipitation records and is calibrated onmosquito surveillance data collected during 2,437 trapping sessions in 115 locationsin Europe and the Americas between July, 2007 and December, 2018. In areas colonized by both Aedes species, Ae. aegypti is estimated to be the mainvector for transmission of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. Our estimates highlightthat these arboviruses are endemic in tropical and sub-tropical countries, with thehighest risks of transmission found in Central America, Venezuela, Colombia, andCentral-East Brazil. A non-negligible potential risk of transmission is also estimatedfor the Southern US (especially for Florida Texas and Arizona) The broader1 1 2 3 34 5 6 7 78 2 3 4 97 10 5 1 11 2 345 6 7 89 10 04/12/23, 09:32 Estimating the potential risk of transmission of arboviruses in the Americas and Europe: A modeling study • Submission 877 • E…https://virtual.oxfordabstracts.com/#/event/3571/submission/877 1/1that these arboviruses are endemic in tropical and sub tropical countries, with thehighest risks of transmission found in Central America, Venezuela, Colombia, andCentral-East Brazil. A non-negligible potential risk of transmission is also estimatedfor the Southern US (especially, for Florida, Texas, and Arizona). The broaderecological niche of Ae. albopictus could contribute to the emergence of chikungunyaoutbreaks in temperate areas of the Americas, as well as in the Mediterranean Europe(in particular, in Italy, Southern France, and Spain).Implications. Our results provide a comprehensive overview of the transmissionpotential of arboviral diseases in Europe and the Americas, highlighting areas wheresurveillance and mosquito control capacities should be prioritized. SESSION DETAILSPoster Session 3, with Refreshment Break & Meet the Editor SessionEuropa Foyer & Italia Foyer15 40 17 10Thursday, 30 November, 2023IN THIS SESSIONCan carrier animals support FMD persistence in endemic regions? A model exploration ofexplanations of FMD persistenceHow effective are control methods for endemic FMD? A simulation study in the Republic ofTurkeyCollateral impacts of pandemic COVID 19 drive the nosocomial spread of antibioticresistance: a modelling studyActive learning sampling design  A LSD   A new adaptive survey design paradigm to improverepresentativeness of subpopulationsNumber of COVID 19 importations averted by travel restrictions in JapanImpact of risk heterogeneity on the feasibility of Hepatitis C elimination among people whoinject drugsSocial contact patterns following the COVID 19 pandemic: A snapshot of post-pandemicbehaviour from the CoMix studyData assimilation for estimating change points of time-varying reproduction numbersMonitoring contacts to efficiently control pathogen spread in hospital settings

Estimating the potential risk of transmission of arboviruses in the Americas and Europe: a modeling study

https://openpub.fmach.it/bitstream/10449/83196/1/2023%20Epidemics%20Marini%20Arnoldi.pdf

Estimating the potential risk of transmission of arboviruses in the Americas and Europe: a modeling study

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Archivio istituzionale della ricerca - Fondazione Edmund Mach