Bobrova, Yekatherina

Eyre, Nick

Fawcett, Tina

Nolden, Colin

Papachristos, George

English

Oxford University Research Archive

Policy & governance 2023 1Why don’t governments pay more attention to energy demand? Investigating systemic reasons for the supply/ demand asymmetry in energy policyYekatherina BobrovaP O L I C Y  &  G O V E R N A N C EBritish Institute of Energy Economics Research Conference, 20 – 21 Sep 2023, Oxford,  UK2023 2Yekatherina BobrovaNick EyreTina FawcettColin NoldenEnvironmental Change InstituteOxford University Centre for the EnvironmentUniversity of OxfordGeorge PapachristosDept. of Innovation ScienceEindhoven UniversityThe NetherlandsSystem aim – fulfil societal functions:– Minimise environmental impact– Enhance energy security– and many more… Supply/demand policy asymmetry2023 3Energy supply optionsDemand-side optionsServices to fulfil societal functions 2023 4Four main elements of dynamic complexity: accumulations, rates of change, feedback processes, nonlinear relations. Even if system purposes and elements are different, the interconnection of elements (structure) might be similar enough to make transferable insights possible.Meadows, D.H., 2008. Thinking in systems: a primer. White River Junction: Chelsea Green Publishing.Rapoport, A., 1968. Foreword, in: Buckley, W. (Ed.), Modern Systems Research for the Bahavioural Scientist. Aldine Publishing Company, Chicago.Sterman, J.D., 2002. All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist. System Dynamics Review 18, 501–531. Systemic problemSocio-technical system2023 5Three ontological dimensions:– Actors– Rules– Material realityGeels, F.W., 2004. From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems. Research Policy 33, 897–920Geels, F.W., Bruno Turnheim, 2022. The great reconfiguration: a socio-technical analysis of low-carbon transitions in UK electricity, heat, and mobility systems. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Figure 1. Three ontological dimensions of socio-technical systems (based on Geels 2004, p.903 and Geels and Turnheim, 2022, p.9)Stocks3. Actors carry and reproduce rules4. Actors perceptions and interactions are guided by rules1. Existing stocks enable and constrain action2. Actors shape material reality and intangible stocks5. Rules can be built into stocks, e.g. design of the material reality6. Interpretation of rules is constrained by existing stocks▪ Material realityincl. technology and  infrastructureActorsindividuals, composite actorsRulescognitive, normative,  regulative▪ Intangible stocksincl. trust and social capitalReasoning by analogy2023 6Isomorphism – mapping that preserves structure (relations among elements)Langley, A., 1999. Strategies for theorizing from process data. The Academy of Management Review 24, 691–710.Peirce, C.S., 1903. Sundry logical conceptions, in: Houser, N., Kloesel, C. (Eds.), The Essential Peirce: Selected Philosophical Writings. Volume 2 (1893–1914). Indiana University Press, 1998, Bloomington, pp. 267–289.Peirce, C.S., 1878. Deduction, induction, and hypothesis, in: Houser, N., Kloesel, C. (Eds.), The Essential Peirce: Selected Philosophical Writings. Volume 1 (1867–1893). Indiana University Press, 1998, Bloomington, pp. 133–144.Tsoukas, H., 1991. The missing link: a transformational view of metaphors in organizational science. The Academy of Management Review 16, 566–585.Figure 2. Reasoning by analogy (based on Tsoukas, 1991)METAPHORICAL INSIGHTSIMILARITYISO-MORPHISMThick descriptionThick descriptionCase-specific explanationSource domainTarget domainCase-specific explanationStructural explanationStructural explanationGeneralisationEmpirical observationGeneralisationEmpirical observationSCIENTIFIC MODEL2023 7Learning from other social systems that exhibit similar asymmetry, e.g., asymmetry in healthcare between curing illness and investing in preventive healthcare.Gough, D., 2013. Meta-narrative and realist reviews: guidance, rules, publication standards and quality appraisal. BMC Med 11, 22. Gough, D., Oliver, S., Thomas, J., 2017. An introduction to systematic reviews, 2nd ed. SAGE, Los AngelesGreenhalgh, T., Robert, G., Macfarlane, F., Bate, P., Kyriakidou, O., Peacock, R., 2005. Storylines of research in diffusion of innovation: a meta-narrative approach to systematic review. Soc Sci Med 61, 417–430. Kuhn, T.S., 1962. The structure of scientific revolutions. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.Wong, G., Greenhalgh, T., Westhorp, G., Buckingham, J., Pawson, R., 2013. RAMESES publication standards: meta-narrative reviews. BMC Med 11, 20. Meta-narrative systematic reviewFigure 3. Meta-narrative stepsRecommendations for future research on demand/supply energy policy asymmetryDefinitions of concepts related to demand/supply asymmetry in socio-technical systems1.  Map of socio-technical systems (research domains), where demand/supply policy asymmetry is exhibited2.  Domain-specific explanations: - Process narratives - Thematic analysis around three dimensions of socio-technical systems: coding, cross-tabulation and diagrams- Structural explanations 3.  Isomorphic framework of asymmetry in socio-technical systemsCyclical nature of problem understandingCyclical nature of inquirySocio-technical systems Research scope for asymmetry Demand/supply symmetry terminology1. Energy system Production and use of energy Demand vs supply2. Water system Supply and use of water Demand vs supply3. Food system Production and use of food Demand vs supply4. Transportation system Transport control Demand management vs ‘predict and provide’5. Industrial production system Pollution controlIntegrated vs reactive control; wholistic vs end-of-pipe regulation6. Material production system Waste control Waste reduction vs waste management7. Healthcare system Population health Prevention vs cure8. Management systemOrganisation management Infrastructure management Investment vs operation; improvement vs productionProactive vs reactive maintenance; preventing vs correcting defectsSystems in the reviewEnergy system Energy systemIndustrial and material production systems Health systemEnergy Carbon Food waste Biodiversity Material waste HealthcareAvoid Wasted energy avoidance Prevention Avoid PreventPrimary preventionShift Reduce Secondary preventionImprove Efficient conversion Redistribution Minimise ReuseRenewables Renewable energyAnimal feed/ compost Restore RecycleOffset Energy recovery Offset Recovery Tertiary preventionDisposal LandfillHierarchy of solution strategiesInsights and further steps2023 101. We can see policy asymmetry in other social systems (and can hopefully learn from them).2. Identifying structural reasons for asymmetry is difficult. However, some preliminary insights are drawn.3. A new systemic conceptual lens for the problem of demand/supply asymmetry in energy system and its policies?????creds.ac.uktwitter.com/CREDS_UKlinkedin.com/company/credsuk/Environmental Change InstituteOxford University Centre for the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford, South Parks RoadOxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom2023Thank you for listening11Yekatherina Bobrovayekatherina.bobrova@ouce.ox.ac.uk

Why don’t governments pay more attention to energy demand? investigating systemic reasons for the supply / demand asymmetry in energy policy

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Why don’t governments pay more attention to energy demand? investigating systemic reasons for the supply / demand asymmetry in energy policy

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