Domestic flight bans are increasingly being discussed as measures to reduce the carbon footprint of the air transport sector. In 2022, France actually implemented such a ban, based on various conditions. We investigate a) what the exact rules are; b) if the measure is supposed to have a real environmental impact; and c) to what extend different airlines or airline types (like, e.g. French versus international or hub&spoke versus point-to-point airlines) are actually affected

Grimme, Wolfgang

Maertens, Sven

Institute of Transport Research:Publications

Domestic flight ban in France  Sven Maertens & Wolfgang GrimmeGerman Aerospace Center (DLR)ATRS, Kobe, 3 July 2023> Domestic Flight Ban France > Maertens/Grimme  •  ATRS 2023 > 3 July 2023DLR.de  •  Chart 1Introduction: What is this presentation about?• Domestic or short-haul flight bans are increasingly being discussed as measures to reduce the carbon footprint of the air transport sector. In 2021, France actually decided to implement such a ban which became effective 23 May 2023 after two years of discussion.• According to press reports, however, only a handful of non-hub routes seemto be actually affected.• So much ado about nothing?• Objectives:• What are the exact rules and genesis of the measure, and what is the position of the EC?• What is the actual impact on different airlines, and on the environment?> Domestic Flight Ban France > Maertens/Grimme  •  ATRS 2023 > 3 July 2023DLR.de  •  Chart 2Structure• Introduction: What is this presentation about?• Literature & Research gap(s)• Methodology • Data / Legal Sources• Results & Discussion• Conclusion and further thoughts> Domestic Flight Ban France > Maertens/Grimme  •  ATRS 2023 > 3 July 2023DLR.de  •  Chart 3Literature & Research gap(s)• Air transport ensures global mobility and connectivity at the cost of contributing about 3-5% to global warming in emitting CO2 and generating additional non-CO2 effects (Simorgh et al., 2022; Lee et al., 2021).• Market-based measures like the EU ETS or CORSIA have been introduced to reduce the sector’s climate footprint, in addition to technical and operational improvements or the use of sustainable fuels.• Some stakeholders call for stronger regulation, such as minimum fares or flight bans (e.g., Robin Wood, n.d.; Greenpeace, 2021)• Published academic work on this topic is limited to, e.g., impacts of short-haul flight bans on airline supply at European airports (Szymczak, 2021) or to the quantification of emission reduction and seat substitutability potentials when shifting demand from air to ground-based transport (e.g., Avogadro et al., 2021; Baumeister et al.; 2021). • The specific design of actual flight bans has not yet been tackled in the literature. > Domestic Flight Ban France > Maertens/Grimme  •  ATRS 2023 > 3 July 2023DLR.de  •  Chart 4Methodology• Analysis of legal documents to assess the genesis and content of the measure in detail, including the most important rules and exceptions, as well as the view of the EC• Assessment of the legislative process with a focus on the Commission Implementing Decision 2022/2358• Identification of amendments to the (original) draft decree to identify key amendments that were applied in the course of the legislative process after initial EC review• Quantification of affected passenger numbers to assess the extent different airlines are affected by the actual measure, also compared to the draft decree, based on route- and airline-level air transport statisticsfrom the Sabre Market Intelligence> Domestic Flight Ban France > Maertens/Grimme  •  ATRS 2023 > 3 July 2023DLR.de  •  Chart 5Data / legal sources• Legal documents• Regulation (EC) No 1008/2008 on common rules for the operation of air services in the Community• (French) Law 2021-1104 (2 Aug 2021) on combating climate change (“the law”), Article 145• Consolidated version of Art. 6412-3 of the (French) Transport Code following Law 2021-1104 • Draft decree (setting out the conditions for the application of the prohibition) (not publicly available)• Final decree 2023-385 dated 22 May 2023• Commission implementing decision (EU) 2022/2358 from 1 December 2022• Sabre Market Intelligence • a database consolidating MIDT (Marketing Information Data Tapes) booking data from global distribution systems with additional data from external sources and own estimates for, e.g., increasingly important direct bookings• to assess airline supply on the affected versus non-affected French domestic routes> Domestic Flight Ban France > Maertens/Grimme  •  ATRS 2023 > 3 July 2023DLR.de  •  Chart 6Genesis of the MeasureEU legislation> Domestic Flight Ban France > Maertens/Grimme  •  ATRS 2023 > 3 July 2023DLR.de  •  Chart 7Regulation (EC) No 1008/2008 on common rules for the operation of air services in the CommunityArticle 20: Environmental measures1. When serious environmental problems exist, the Member State … may limit ... traffic rights, in particular when other modes of transport provide appropriate levels of service. The measure shall be non-discriminatory, shall not distort competition between air carriers, shall not be more restrictive than necessary to relieve the problems, and shall have a limited period of validity, not exceeding three years, after which it shall be reviewed.2. … Member State … shall, at least three months before the entry into force …, inform the other Member States and the Commission, providing adequate justification for the action. The action may be implemented unless … the Commission … takes it up for further examination.Article 20 “serious environmental problems” as door opener for the revocation of traffic rightsGenesis of the Measure> Domestic Flight Ban France > Maertens/Grimme  •  ATRS 2023 > 3 July 2023DLR.de  •  Chart 8EC 1008/2008, Article 20 “serious environmental problems” as door opener for the revocation of traffic rightsLaw 2021-1104 on combating climate change (“the Law”) (2 Aug 2021), Article 145 + Consolidated version of Art. 6412-3 of the Transport CodeTemporary limitation of domestic traffic rights due to serious environmental problems (“Initial measure”)Draft decree (setting out the conditions for the application of the prohibition) and additional elementsFurther examination by the Commission: Is the Initial Measure compatible with EU law? (15 Dec 2021)Complaints from airlines and airports• Measure is ineffective, disproportionate, discriminates between carriers and has unlimited duration• Air transport sector in France already covered by existing measures with the same objective(EU ETS; offsetting obligation of Article 147 of the same law for French domestic flights)Submission 17 Nov 2021Genesis of the Measure> Domestic Flight Ban France > Maertens/Grimme  •  ATRS 2023 > 3 July 2023DLR.de  •  Chart 9EC 1008/2008, Article 20 “serious environmental problems” as door opener for the revocation of traffic rightsLaw 2021-1104 (2 Aug 2021) on combating climate change (“the Law”), Article 145 + Consolidated version of Art. 6412-3 of the Transport CodeTemporary limitation of domestic traffic rights due to serious environmental problems (“Initial measure”)Draft Decree (setting out the conditions for the application of the prohibition) and additional elementsExamination by the Commission: Is the Initial Measure compatible with EU law? (Preliminary decision 15 Dec 2021)Submission 17 Nov 2021Commission implementing decision 2022/2358 of 1 December 2022: Measure in compliance with EU law Request of additional information (7 Jan 2022) and consecutive reviewProvision of additional elements (9 May 2022) and submission of amended “Final Draft Decree” (21 Jun 2022) (“Measure”)Measure in force 23 May 2023 as “Décret no 2023-385 du 22 mai 2023“Conditions of the Measure> Domestic Flight Ban France > Maertens/Grimme  •  ATRS 2023 > 3 July 2023DLR.de  •  Chart 10Initial Measure submitted 17 Nov 2021 (according to EU 2022/2358)Air France would have lost 4 services into CDG if the EC had stopped the connecting services waiver.*) Train timestakenfrombahn.de forJuly12, 2023, departurebetween09:00 and 13:00Prohibition of scheduled domestic passenger flights on routes with several daily rail connections (city-to-city level) below 2.5 hours (Art 145 I)Draft decree (Art 145 I (2)) with conditions for „qualifying“ rail connections and derogations for feeder flights Commission Decision 15 Dec 2021 based on preliminary assessment: Risk of competitive distortion if carriers focusingon connecting passengers were allowed to continue flying such routes8 routes affectedwith TGV connections downtown-downtown below 2.5 hrsParis Orly to Bordeaux (train from 2:06*) / Lyon (1:49*) / Nantes (2:00*)Paris CDG to Bordeaux (2:06*) / Lyon (1:49*) / Nantes (2:00*) / Rennes (1:29*) Marseille-Lyon (1:32*)Waiver for services dominated by connecting passengers, i.e. mainly Air France to/from CDGConditions of the Measure> Domestic Flight Ban France > Maertens/Grimme  •  ATRS 2023 > 3 July 2023DLR.de  •  Chart 11(Final) Measure submitted 21 Jun 2022 and Decree 2023-385 from 22 May 2023The “final” measure has no formal, but an implicit waiver for connecting flightsAvailability of „several“ direct train services per daybelow 2.5 hours in each direction with „sufficientfrequencies“ between the main train stations of thecities served by the airportsIf the larger airport of the route is directly served by HSR, its airport train station shall be understood as a destinationin its own right instead of the city train station (Lyon, Paris CDG)Train schedules must allowfor stays of more than 8 hours at the destinationNo general derogationfor connecting flightsExclusion of• Paris CDG to Bordeaux (3:52*) and Nantes (3:25*) as rail journey times to Paris CDG airport station exceed 2.5 hrs• Paris CDG to Rennes (2:31*) and Lyon (1:54*) & Lyon LYS-Marseille (1:39*) as railjourney times do not allow for early morning or late evening connections; e.g. last departure CDG-Lyon at 20:39* and LYS-Marseille at 18:56*3 routes affected with TGV connections downtown-downtown are below 2.5 hrs: Paris Orly to Bordeaux (trainfrom 2:06*) / Lyon (1:49*) / Nantes (2:00*)*) Train timestakenfrombahn.de forJuly12, 2023, departurebetween09:00 and 13:00General view by the EC> Domestic Flight Ban France > Maertens/Grimme  •  ATRS 2023 > 3 July 2023DLR.de  •  Chart 12• The EC acknowledges the view that serious environmental problems exist (climate change as „urgent challenge“) which can justify a route ban where suitable alternatives exist (EU 2022/2358 III. 24-30).• Distortion of competition would occur if transfer flights were exempt from the measure. As the criteria forthe ban are now solely based on travel times and frequencies, the EC sees no discrimination on grounds of „nationality, identity or business model“ (EU 2022/2358 III. 31-34).• The measure is „not more restrictive than necessary to relieve the problems“ as the measures stemmingfrom the Fit for 55 package are „not yet applicable“. The EC also notes that the closure of Orly-Bordeaux/Lyon/Nantes alone can help reducing 55,000 tonnes of CO2 (EU 2022/2358 III. 35-41).No consideration of• the environmental impact of the current EU ETS for aviation, which already limits total CO2 from intra-EEA aviation. Due to the waterbed effect (e.g. Appunn, 2023), the actual CO2 saving impact of the ban could be zero;• potential shift of resources (aircraft, slots) formerly used for domestic flights to international, probably even non-ETS, services. This could mean a net increase in global CO2 emissions.Impacts of the measureNumber and share of affected passengers by (operating) airline (year: 2019)> Domestic Flight Ban France > Maertens/Grimme  •  ATRS 2023 > 3 July 2023DLR.de  •  Chart 13If applied strictly to all routes where trains operate in less than 2:30 hours city-to-city, the measure would have the potential to reduce domestic passenger volumes by some 10.3% (Air France: 17.1%, HOP!: 12.2%). Air France benefits strongly both from the initial waiver for connecting flights and from the final regime after EC review, “reducing the reduction” to 3.3%. HOP! only benefits slightly from the waiver (from 12,2% to 9.3/8.2% reduction.Initial measure without transfer waiverInitial measure with transfer waiver(initial draft decree by the government)Measure in operation(after EC review)Total Pax 2019 Affected pax Reduction Affected pax Reduction Affected pax ReductionAll airlines 25,750,773 2,641,081 10.3% 876,696 3.4% 801,380 3.1%Air France 11,789,566 2,013,617 17.1% 391,134 3.3% 391,133 3.3%Easyjet 4,396,865 1 0.0% 1 0.0% 1 0.0%HOP! 4,640,442 566,590 12.2% 429,482 9.3% 378,755 8.2%Air Corsica 1,811,179 2 0.0% 2 0.0% - 0.0%Volotea 1,377,737 - 0.0% - 0.0% - 0.0%Ryanair 413,746 1 0.0% 1 0.0% - 0.0%Chalair Aviation 192,318 - 0.0% - 0.0% - 0.0%Twin Jet 58,317 - 0.0% - 0.0% - 0.0%Others 1,070,604 60,871 5.7% 56,076 5.2% 31,491 2.9%Conclusion and further thoughts• Several conditions and exceptions in the decree ensure that only very few routes are actually banned. • These are point-to-point routes between cities where direct train connections below 2:30 hrs exist at high frequencies.• Also, the hub airports CDG (and LYS) are treated like a destination, meaning that travel times to the airport train stations and not to Paris city are considered when applying the 2:30 hours frontier. Another conditions here is that trains to and from CDG (and LYS) must operate early and late enough to connect with onward and inbound flights. As a result, no hub route is actually banned. • This way, especially Air France is far less affected than in a regime without such waivers.• In its assessment, the EC does neither consider overlaps with the existing EU ETS, with its likely waterbed effect, nor a potential shift of aircraft and slots to international services, probably even outside the EU ETS scope. Such phenomena could be subject to future research.> Domestic Flight Ban France > Maertens/Grimme  •  ATRS 2023 > 3 July 2023DLR.de  •  Chart 14

Domestic flight ban in France

https://elib.dlr.de/196185/1/Domestic%20flight%20ban%20in%20France_ATRS2023_Maertens%2BGrimme_V1_final.pdf

Domestic flight ban in France

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Institute of Transport Research:Publications