Alfonsi, Lucilla

Belehaki, Anna

Buresova, Daria

Hynonen, Reko

Mainella, Sara

Romano, Vincento

Vermicelli, Pietro

Witvliet, Ben A.

English

This review is one of the results of the project "PITHIA Network of Research Facilities (PITHIA-NRF), a research infrastructure," funded by the EU’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation program.❑ SWx is a low probability high-impact event, with costs to society not dissimilar from those caused by major natural disasters.❑ The science of quantifying their socioeconomic impacts of upper atmosphere phenomena is not yet mature.❑ The literature tends to focus only on a subset of infrastructures and SWx phenomena affecting them, without fully exploring the total costs associated with SWx.❑ There is no comprehensive theoretical framework for risk analysis in this field.❑ The lack of important modeling information and modern society’s lack of experience with extremely large events hinders advances needed by governments, asset owners, and business to mitigate the risks posed by SWx

University of Twente Research Information

Pietro Vermicelli1, Sara Mainella1,2, Lucilla Alfonsi2, Anna Belehaki3, Daria Buresova4, Reko Hynonen5, Vincenzo Romano1,2, Ben Witvliet61SpacEarth Technology Srl (Italy) - 2Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (Italy) - 3National Observatory of Athens (Greece)  - 4Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences (Czech Republic) – 5Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory (Finland)- 6University of Twente (Netherlands)❑This review is one of the results of the project PITHIANetwork of Research Facilities (PITHIA-NRF), aresearch infrastructure funded by the EU’s Horizon 2020Research and Innovation program.❑SWx is a low probability high-impact event, with coststo society not dissimilar from those caused by majornatural disasters.❑ The science of quantifying their socioeconomicimpacts of upper atmosphere phenomena is not yetmature.❑ The literature tends to focus only on a subset ofinfrastructures and SWx phenomena affecting them,without fully exploring the total costs associated withSWx.❑ There is no comprehensive theoretical framework for riskanalysis in this field.❑The lack of important modeling information andmodern society’s lack of experience with extremelylarge events hinders advances needed by governments,asset owners, and business to mitigate the risks posed bySWx.The Socioeconomic Impacts of the Upper Atmosphere Effects on LEO Satellites, Communication and Navigation SystemsEconomic costs associated with upper atmosphere phenomenaThe effects of upper atmosphere space weather on the systemsRobability higType of estimated cost for infrastructurePlasmasphere Ionosphere Thermosphere Integrated Research Environment and Access services: a Network of Research Facilities (PITHIA-NRF) www.pithia-nrf.euKey PointsZagreb, 24-28 October 2022Scan to get the full reportGNSS Application  Scenario: 1-3 days to 14 days PNT services outageEurope                    (PwC, 2016)USA                              (ABT Associates, 2017)Canada                                (HAL, 2019)Precision Agriculture Not stated $30-100 million $0,5 millionSurveying €197,5 million $30-100 million $0,8-1,7 millionRoad Transport and Logistics €0,8-2,4 billion $20-100 million Not statedLEO SatellitesScenario: 1-in-100 years (Carrington event, 1859) World                         (PwC, 2016)World                              (ABT Associates, 2017)World                (Odenwald et al., 2006)Global direct + indirect economic costs€1 billion $4-200 billion €30 billionAviationScenario: 2-3 hours HF communications blackout in low- and mid-latitude regions or several days at high-latitudes Europe                    (PwC, 2016)USA                              (ABT Associates, 2017)Canada                                (HAL, 2019)Cost of delaying, canceling, or rerouting flights€812 million $1-30 million Not statedPassengers' value of lost time €14,7 million $6-200 million Not statedTotal €0,83 billlion $7-230 million $1,75 billionImpacted systems SPACE-BASED SYSTEMS GROUND-BASED SYSTEMSImpacted services LEO cellular and data SATCOM VLF-MF communications and broadcastingEO (with LEO satellites), Space-based SARPNT with GNSS and GBASAstronimicalobservationsystems (LOFAR)Terrestrialradio systems (HF communications)Impacting UAP Ionosphericplasma bubbles; MultipathAttenuationDopplerFaraday Rotation; Ionospheric Scintillation; Atmospheric dragLarge TEC gradients; Ionospheric plasma bubbles; TIDSGeomagnetic storms; Auroral jets intensification; Ionospheric plasma bubblesPCA; Sporadic E-layer; TIDS; Ionization depletionsEffects Rapid fluctuations in the amplitude and phase of the radio signal leading to repeated disruption of communications linksLoss of phase coherence across SAR aperture;              Prohibits remote sensingLoss of phase lock and data loss;                  Range errorsRadio signalrefractionBlackout of HF radio frequenciesWorst-case scenario duration and spatial extent of effecsIntermittent occurrence over several days worldwideSAR: 1 hour on the whole dayside of the Earth;                   EO: asset lossIntermittent occurrence over several daysworldwide2 or 3 hours in all regions at low- and mid-latitude on the dayside of the Earth; Several days at high latitudes (PCA)

The Socioeconomic Impacts of the Upper Atmosphere Effects on LEO Satellites, Communication and Navigation Systems

https://ris.utwente.nl/ws/files/288169363/2022_Vermicelli_Witvliet_Socioeconomic_Impacts_of_Space_Weather_poster_ESWW.pdf

The Socioeconomic Impacts of the Upper Atmosphere Effects on LEO Satellites, Communication and Navigation Systems

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

University of Twente Research Information