Inverse modeling of time-delayed interactions via the dynamic-entropy formalism

Abstract

Even though instantaneous interactions are unphysical, a large variety of maximum-entropy statistical-inference methods match the model inferred and the empirically measured equal-time correlation functions. While this constraint holds when the interaction timescale is much faster than that of the interacting units, as, e.g., in starling flocks (where birds see each other via the electromagnetic field), it fails in a number of counter examples, as, e.g., leukocyte coordination (where signalling proteins diffuse among two cells). Here, by relying upon the Akaike Information Criterion, we relax this assumption and develop a dynamical maximum-entropy framework, which copes with delay in signalling. Our method correctly infers the strength of couplings and fields, but also the time required by the couplings to propagate among the units. We demonstrate the validity of our approach providing excellent results on synthetic datasets generated by the Heisemberg-Kuramoto and Vicsek models. As a proof of concept, we also apply the method to experiments on dendritic migration to prove that matching equal-time correlations results in a significant information loss