The conflicts of agricultural water supply and demand under climate change in a typical arid land watershed of Central Asia

Abstract

Study Region. The Bosten Lake basin. Study Focus. The irrigated agriculture distributed in arid/semi-arid areas is of great significance for. food security and sustainable development. However, the shortage of water resources. limits agricultural development in these areas, and the water distribution pattern under. climate change is also uncertain. In this research, the Bosten Lake basin was selected. as the study area, and the monthly agricultural water supply (AWS) and demand. (AWD) in the historical and future periods were evaluated. New Hydrological Insights for the Region. Supported by the hydrological model and evapotranspiration model, the AWS and. AWD of the watershed were first evaluated, and 37 GCMs under CMIP6 were used to. expand the study to future periods, a novel downscaling scheme consisting of IDW and. BMA is used to increase the reliability of the results. The supply and demand of. agricultural water in the future scenarios within the region are revealed. In the. forthcoming future (the 2030 s), the watershed will maintain the warming and wetting. trend in the historical period. In the long-term future (the 2060 s), agricultural water. scarcity will become more severe, especially under the high emission scenario. (ssp585). The adaption strategies to address climate change have also been. proposed, and efficient water conveyance is highly recommended. This study is. expected to provide a reference for water resources management in arid/semi-arid. watersheds

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