The Adaptive Market Hypothesis:An empirical study on the UK stock market

Abstract

This paper uses the FTSE 350 daily data and subsample method to detect the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) in the UK stock market. We performed a range of linear and nonlinear tests on sixteen two-yearly subsamples to capture the time-varying characteristic of market efficiency from 1987 to 2018. Both linear and nonlinear test results provide evidence that the market efficiency is not an all-or-nothing condition, and stock returns experience predictable and unpredictable periods. In addition, we find there is a downward trend for the January effect in the UK stock market during the sample period. Meanwhile, the analysis result suggests that AMH based on its more realistic assumptions provides a better explanation of the January effect than the Efficient Market Hypothesis

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