Homes have more influence on the way that people live and behave in society than anything else they spend their
money on. A house usually represents an individual’s largest ever single investment, and is expected to last for
decades, if not indefinitely. In order to make the most appropriate investment today, however, people need to know
how they will be living and working in the future, both individually and as a society. A Royal Institution of Chartered
Surveyors (RICS) report The Future of UK Housebuilding, published in December 2010, investigates and debates this
issue. This briefing discusses the implications of the report for municipal engineers and others. In particular, the issues
of sustainability, zero carbon dioxide, offsite technologies, technology changes and community impact are discussed

Chris Goodier (1257963)

Wei Pan (701)

English

Loughborough University Institutional Repository

   This item was submitted to Loughborough’s Institutional Repository (https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/) by the author and is made available under the following Creative Commons Licence conditions.      For the full text of this licence, please go to: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/  Briefing: Future trends in UKhousebuildingChris Goodier PhDLecturer, School of Civil and Building Engineering, Loughborough University,Loughborough, UKWei Pan MSc, PhDReader in Sustainable Construction, School of Architecture, Design andEnvironment, Plymouth University, Plymouth, UKHomes have more influence on the way that people live and behave in society than anything else they spend theirmoney on. A house usually represents an individual’s largest ever single investment, and is expected to last fordecades, if not indefinitely. In order to make the most appropriate investment today, however, people need to knowhow they will be living and working in the future, both individually and as a society. A Royal Institution of CharteredSurveyors (RICS) report The Future of UK Housebuilding, published in December 2010, investigates and debates thisissue. This briefing discusses the implications of the report for municipal engineers and others. In particular, the issuesof sustainability, zero carbon dioxide, offsite technologies, technology changes and community impact are discussed.1. Homes for people: the futureFuture housing requirements are qualitative and reflect changingaspirations, values and tastes. A critical uncertainty of the future iswhether the UK’s population – possibly in the future comprising amore diverse mix of cultures and backgrounds – will continue tofollow this same pattern of attitude to housing, or whether society’sattitudes will change, leading buyers, occupiers and hence suppliersto make different choices. Future patterns of development will bedriven by demographic, economic, socio-cultural, political, tech-nological and environmental factors. According to the CLG LiveTable 401, the number of households in the UK has been projectedto gradually increase, from the current 27 million to 33 million by2031 (CLG, 2010). The population is projected to continue risingand the average household size is decreasing. The Live Table 402shows that one-person households accounted for 19% of overallhouseholds in 1971, but that share increased to 33% by 2010 (CLG,2010). The vast majority of future housing stock in the next fewdecades is already in place now. The form and make-up ofindividual households will continue to change, modes of living,working and leisure time will continue to interweave, andconsequently future housing will need to be more flexible andadaptable than it is today. Houses currently account for 82% ofdwelling stock in England, while the split between houses and flatsin new-build in recent years has presented a trend towardsequilibrium, reaching 50/50 in 2008/2009 as indicated in the LiveTable 254 (CLG, 2010). Construction techniques and regulations(both local planning and national building regulations) will need toacknowledge and enable this increasing flexibility, while thesuitability (and adaptability) of the existing housing stock willbecome an increasingly important factor.Many of these issues are discussed in a report recentlypublished by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors(RICS) (Goodier and Pan, 2010). This report discusses anumber of UK housebuilding scenarios for the next 10–20years, in order to provoke deliberation and encourage morestrategic thinking within the industry and among policymakers and other stakeholders. The three scenarios discussedwere ‘The future of housing provision’, ‘Factors influencing thefuture of housing and supporting infrastructure’ and ‘Energyefficient homes’. The report highlights that the currentdemands on housebuilding are unlikely to change over thecoming decades: if anything they will intensify. Climatechange, demographic change and the demand for housing areall leading to a shift in the expectations placed on the supply ofhousing, with a need for increased quality, quantity, locality,affordability and environmental sustainability. There is anurgent need to think more strategically, in order to address thechallenges, as summarised in the housing green paper (CLG,2007), ‘more homes to meet growing demand; well-designedand greener homes; more affordable homes to buy or rent’.The pervasive and ubiquitous nature of technology in people’slives and homes over the last two decades has produced an‘anywhere, anyhow, anytime’ attitude, especially among youngpeople and in business. The past 20 years have seen exponentialgrowth in the use of home PCs, mobiles and other electricalappliances in the home, to the extent that almost everyone hasthem. More recent technologies in the home such as plasmascreens, wi-fi and smart metering are likely to follow a similarpath over the coming decade or so. However, this technologicaladvancement is not wanted, or kept up with, by everyone.There is therefore a possibility of a disenfranchised minoritywho may resent and increasingly resist this form of modernliving, for example those who are too poor, insufficientlyeducated or unconnected (technologically or socially). It isMunicipal EngineerVolume 165 Issue ME2Briefing: Future trends in UKhousebuildingGoodier and PanProceedings of the Institution of Civil EngineersMunicipal Engineer 165 June 2012 Issue ME2Pages 65–67 http://dx.doi.org/10.1680/muen.11.00001Paper 1100001Received 23/12/2010 Accepted 12/05/2011Keywords: buildings, structures & design/sustainability/urban regenerationice | proceedings ICE Publishing: All rights reserved65therefore possible that communities will emerge which are asanctuary or haven from the 24/7 forever-connected world.A technological underclass is another possibility. Whetherindividuals choose fully to embrace information and com-munication technology (ICT), however, is unlikely to preventthe saturation of ICT into people’s lives. In addition, ashomes become ever more sophisticated, varied and high-tech,with smart meters, solar panels and advanced insulation andventilation systems, more and more home owners will not beable to conduct their own house repairs, renovations anddomestic ‘odd jobs’. However, the increased demand forhomes designed for adaptability will make it easier for thenew generations of home owners to reconfigure their dwell-ings as and when required, or indeed, to order a newreplacement. Housing design will have to evolve further toincorporate the different needs of differing stakeholders. Thebriefing, planning and design process will therefore need toinclude a broader range of stakeholders of the present andfuture, where the public acceptance of the design is critical,for example, community groups, schools, local businesses andthe house-buyers of tomorrow, such as college and universitystudents.There is increased interest in self-sufficiency among manyconsumers, and the term ‘self-sufficient communities’ oftenappears in publicity for new developments, although currentlycan only truly be applied to communities that are moregeographically isolated, like small island nations, regions orcities. Examples in the UK currently include islands such as theShetlands, but also self-sufficient development communitiessuch as the Hockerton housing project (www.hockertonhousingproject.org.uk). However, such communities and principleswill become increasingly important in the future because ofincreased microgeneration and renewable energy, naturaldegradation, economic uncertainty and social instability(Rydin and Goodier, 2010).2. The future of housebuildingIn spite of the complexity of these wide-ranging factors, issues andtrends, the future of housebuilding is likely to be largely driven bythe combination of government policy on sustainability, legacy ofthe economic downturn and the rapid evolution of innovativetechnologies in the short and medium term (Goodier and Pan,2010). The current policy is markedly focused on the introductionand implementation of the code for sustainable homes andachieving zero-carbon dioxide new homes in a few years’ time,which at the time of writing is still set for 2016. These innovativetechnologies are multi-faceted, encompassing offsite production,modern methods of construction (MMC), renewable energy andmicrogeneration, newmaterials and ICT (Lawson et al., 2011). Inthe longer term, the future of UK housebuilding is likely to bedriven by a more complicated profile of forces includingdemographic shifts, policy evolutions and climate change. Someother issues, such as increased global competition (in particularthe consequent foreign entries to the UK market), and aspects ofsustainability other than energy, such as water, waste andecology, are likely to become increasingly dominant.The structure of the industry is likely to become more diverse,with more specialist firms working with sustainability, zerocarbon dioxide and innovative technologies (for both construc-tion and renewable energies). The sector is very likely to see thecoupling and de-coupling of housebuilding and manufacturing,as has appeared previously in its history. The benefits of theincreased industrialisation of the housebuilding process willbecome more recognised and accepted by consumers, builders,regulators, lenders and policy-makers. Land use planning, unlesswith dramatic changes, will, however, continue acting as adeterminant force, driving housebuilding organisations in rela-tion to their house type designs, innovation and technology take-up, hence influencing and driving significantly the relationshipbetween housebuilding and manufacturing (Pan and Goodier,2011).The future nature and form of UK housebuilding will no doubtremain heavily reliant on land use planning, the national (and ashas recently been seen, the global) economy and the variabilityof the housing market. However, consumer preference, technol-ogy and wider sustainability issues will play increasinglyimportant and dominant roles. Nevertheless, the debatesregarding the future discussed here highlight the uncertaintiesassociated with the future, together with the potential impacts ofthe decisions that are made today (Goodier et al., 2010).3. Global driversThere is doubtless increasing demand for more new-buildhousing, while the nature of future housing, for example itssize and type, may also be driven by other factors. Demographicand economic drivers could have a profound impact onconsumer behaviour. Migration, for instance, will import newsocial attitudes (particularly towards borrowing, owning a homeand forming a household), while the current economic crisis mayreduce confidence in financial institutions and create a newaversion to risk. Attitudes towards the countryside and ‘rurallifestyles’, for example, have shaped the planning system andresulted in an intolerance to development in rural areas. ‘Urbanrenaissance’ of central locations and the glut of apartmentdevelopment in the late 1990s and into the 2000s are alsoexamples. Attitudes in the twenty-first centurymay diverge fromthose of the twentieth century, especially if migration transformsthe country’s socio-economic profile, introducing a new mix ofattitudes and aspirations. Examples may include more high-risecity-centre living and increased family- and community-orien-tated urban living, which are more popular in parts of Europeand the wider world than in the UK.Municipal EngineerVolume 165 Issue ME2Briefing: Future trends in UKhousebuildingGoodier and Pan66The way homes are purchased in the future could also change.Prefabricated offsite houses might never be actually repaired orrenovated on site, but instead form part of a disposable sealedunit that is removed and replaced as a stock item, and designedfor a predetermined life span (e.g. Figure 1). This would haveimplications not only for housebuilding, but also on theprovision and connection to local services such as gas andelectricity, as well as street access. Customers in the future arelikely to be able to order their modular homes on-line, as wellas to design their homes themselves using a ‘kit of parts’ oninteractive design websites. Toyota Homes (see www.toyota-home.co.jp) in Japan have adopted this approach for severalyears. In the UK, Rapyd Rooms (see www.rapyd.co.uk), byBuildings for the Future Ltd, and Ecospace’s ‘configurator’(see www.ecospacestudios.com) allow potential buyers tospecify their design on-line, add on extras such as decking,shower room and sky lights, and then the buyer is presentedwith a guideline price. This will have subsequent follow-onimplications for many trades and small businesses, whichcurrently rely heavily on ongoing home maintenance require-ments for employment. Factory-produced homes are alsolikely to be increasingly imported and exported in accordancewith international standards.4. A long-term perspectiveBeneficiaries of a move towards a longer-term perspectivewould not only be clients, society and the public (where it is a‘no-brainer’ is terms of sustainable development) but also thehousebuilding sector itself, which needs to prepare better forits own future, through the creation of a more informed andforward-thinking industry, accumulating and capturing theknowledge of its diverse participants, in order to stimulateinnovative and creative thinking. While looking aheadsystematically, housebuilding stakeholders, including govern-ment and consumers, need to be sufficiently adaptable,responsive and flexible to keep up with, if not capitalise onand take advantage of, the rapidly forming futures that lieahead.REFERENCESCLG (Communities and Local Government) (2007) Homes for theFuture: More Affordable, More Sustainable. CLG, London,UK.CLG (2010) CLG Live Tables: 254, 401 and 402. CLG, London,UK.Goodier CI and Pan W (2010) The Future of UK Housebuilding.London, UK.Goodier CI and Rydin Y (2010) Editorial: Sustainable energy andsustainable cities. Proceedings of the Institution of CivilEngineers – Urban Design and Planning. 163(4): 147–148,http://dx.doi.org/10.1680/udap.2010.163.4.147.Goodier CI, Austin SA, Soetanto R and Dainty ARJ (2010) Causalmapping and scenario building with multiple organisations.Futures 42(3): 219–229, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.007.Lawson M, Ogden R and Goodier CI (2011) Design for ModularConstruction. Taylor and Francis, UK.Pan W and Goodier CI (2011) Housebuilding business modelsand offsite construction take-up. ASCE Journal ofArchitectural Engineering. See http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)AE. 1943–5568.0000058 (accessed 25/042012).WHAT DO YOU THINK?To discuss this briefing, please email up to 500 words tothe editor at journals@ice.org.uk. Your contribution willbe forwarded to the author(s) for a reply and, ifconsidered appropriate by the editorial panel, will bepublished as discussion in a future issue of the journal.Proceedings journals rely entirely on contributions sent inby civil engineering professionals, academics and stu-dents. Papers should be 2000–5000 words long (briefingpapers should be 1000–2000 words long), with adequateillustrations and references. You can submit your paperonline via www.icevirtuallibrary.com/content/journals,where you will also find detailed author guidelines.Figure 1. A two-storey containerised housing system by EcoModular Living LtdMunicipal EngineerVolume 165 Issue ME2Briefing: Future trends in UKhousebuildingGoodier and Pan67

Briefing: future trends in UK housebuilding

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