A Statistical and Dynamic Modeling Analysis of Phytoplankton Changes in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron During the Zebra Mussel Invasion

Abstract

The introduction of the invasive freshwater bivalve Dreissena polymorpha altered the lower trophic levels of many North American aquatic ecosystems. In Saginaw Bay, zebra mussels became established during the late summer and fall of 1991, causing environmental changes and economic losses. Seven years of monitoring data characterizing the lower trophic levels of Saginaw Bay before, during, and after the zebra mussel invasion were collected between 1990-1996 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. In this study, I investigated shifts in the phytoplankton community composition over the sevenyear period. Using multivariate statistics and a clustering analysis, five distinct phytoplankton assemblages were identified. Major shifts in community composition were identified in 1) the fall of 1991, 2) 1992-1993, and 3) the summer of 1994. A dynamic ecosystem model coupled to a zebra mussel bioenergetics model was used to analyze the forces driving these changes. After successfully calibrating the model to 1991 conditions, test scenarios were run to identify important zebra mussel mediated alterations to the phytoplankton community of inner Saginaw Bay. In addition to the direct filtration of phytoplankton, clearing of the water column and recycle of phosphorus were identified as causal mechanisms in the observed changes in the phytoplankton community composition. This study suggests that both direct (filtration) and indirect (nutrient cycling) mechanisms are important in understanding the long-term changes in the phytoplankton of Saginaw Bay induced by zebra mussels. This work describing the changes in an aquatic ecosystem resulting from the introduction of an invasive species is important for both ecosystem management and advancing the basic understanding of ecosystem response to disturbance.Master of ScienceNatural Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Michiganhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/60336/1/Fishman_Thesis_Final.pd

    Similar works