Karabaczek, V.

Kienberger, S.

Menk, L.

Schinko, T.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

The accelerated rate of climate change and the resulting increasedfrequency and intensity of natural hazards raise new questionsregarding the effectiveness of adaptive measures, and whetherlimits to adaptation could be reached. Adaptive capacity isinfluenced by the awareness of decision-makers, making itimportant to understand their perceptions on climate change,adaptation measures and potential limits. We aim to provideempirical policy-relevant scientific insights into climate-relatedrisks “beyond adaptation” that may play a role in Austria, now andin the future.BackgroundAdaptation limit: The point at which an actor’s objectives(or system needs) cannot be secured from intolerable risksthrough adaptive actions (IPCC, 2019)Intolerable risks: Those which “exceed a sociallynegotiated norm (e.g., the availability of clean drinkingwater) or a value (e.g., the continuity of a way of life)despite adaptive action” (Dow et al., 2013, p. 385)“Values […] frame how societies develop rules andinstitutions to govern risk, and to manage social change andthe allocation of scarce resources” (Adger et al., 2009, p.338 based on Ostrom, 2005).Key definitionsConclusions• Initial stakeholder identification and mapping• Semi-structured interviews (n=26) with experts from research(19%), administration (42%), public institutions (31%) and theprivate sector (8%)• Qualitative Content Analysis (Mayring, 2010) of interviews inNVivoMethodologyMost important concerns: increasing temperatures and morefrequent precipitation extremes (→higher flood and drought risks)Potential adaptation constraints:• Responsibility for individual risk reduction very low• Low acceptance of stronger adaptation measures among thepopulation• Low sense of urgency among the population and decision-makers, e.g. caused by lacking knowledge on future conditions• Low risk awareness leads to construction of infrastructure inrisk zones with insufficient protective measuresDiscussed measures to overcome adaptation constraints:• More responsibility for individuals for own risk reduction• More restrictive and coordinated spatial planning• More education on climate change and disaster risks at schools,universities and companies• More participatory processes involving the populationCurrently, there are no concerns regarding adaptationlimits at national scale, but at individual or local levelsMore awareness for and knowledge of possibleimpacts from climate change are needed toproactively plan and implement effective adaptationmeasures and to identify potential adaptation limitsMore frequent and intense hazard events will lead todiscussions on values and preferences:“What is this building, this activity, worth? How muchare we willing to pay for it?”The involvement of relevant stakeholders and thegeneral population is necessary to identify societalvalues and needs and will increase the understandingof adaptation limits and the acceptance of(transformative) adaptation measures.Perceptions on intolerable climate risks and potential limits to adaptation in AustriaVeronica Karabaczek, Thomas Schinko, Linda Menk, Stefan KienbergerResults: concerns, constraints and measuresFlooding in Pinzgau, Salzburg, in July 2021. Copyright: Land Salzburg/Franz WieserReferencesAdger, W. N., Dessai, S., Goulden, M., Hulme, M., Lorenzoni, I., Nelson, D. R., Naess, L. O., Wolf, J., & Wreford, A. (2009). Are there sociallimits to adaptation to climate change? Climatic Change, 93(3–4), 335–354. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9520-zDow, K., Berkhout, F., & Preston, B. L. (2013). Limits to adaptation to climate change: A risk approach. In Current Opinion in EnvironmentalSustainability (Vol. 5, Issues 3–4, pp. 384–391). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2013.07.005IPCC, 2019: Annex I: Glossary [Weyer, N.M. (ed.)]. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O.Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B.Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)].Klein, R.J.T., G.F. Midgley, B.L. Preston, M. Alam, F.G.H. Berkhout, K. Dow, and M.R. Shaw, 2014: Adaptation opportunities, constraints, andlimits. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II tothe Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D.Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, andL.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 899-943.Mayring, P. (2010). Qualitative Inhaltsanalyse. In: Mey, G., Mruck, K. (eds) Handbuch Qualitative Forschung in der Psychologie. VS Verlag fürSozialwissenschaften. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-92052-8_42Ostrom, E. (2005) Understanding institutional diversity. Princeton University Press, Princeton

Perceptions on intolerable climate-related risks and potential limits to adaptation in Austria

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Perceptions on intolerable climate-related risks and potential limits to adaptation in Austria

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