CALCULATED VOLUMES DETERMINATION OF WORK FOR MAIN-LINE AND INDUSTRIAL RAILWAY STATIONS

Abstract

Purpose.This article aims to improve the evaluation of irregularity of freight transport and calculated volumes determination of work for railway stations and sidings of industrial enterprises. Methodology. The methods of mathematical statistics are used as research methods for estimation of calculated volumes of traffic and loaded traffic, in particular, the methods of time series analysis; the methods of mathematical modeling are used to evaluate the calculated volumes of empty traffic. Findings. Calculated volumes of the main-line and industrial railway stations activity are determined according to the monthly and daily irregularity. Monthly irregularity is proposed to evaluate against the trend of the indicator over the last 3-5 years, constructed using the method of weighted moving average. The 30-day period in the previous year with the largest total amount of work is proposed to use as the calculation period for the assessment of daily irregularity. The computation size of empty traffic volumes is proposed to be determined on the basis of loaded traffic volumes with the probability matrix of cars usage for dual operations. The proposed method is verified by the work volume calculation for the year 2014 according to previous time periods. The test results showed that the proposed method as compared with traditional one provides higher stability of the results when changing time periods, used for analysis, as well as a more accurate assessment of the calculated volumes of work. Originality. Authors have improved determination methods for the calculated volumes of work to railway stations through the using time series analysis methods. Practical value. The proposed methodology allows assessing more accurately the prospective volumes of work and, through this, reduce the amount of capital expenditures associated with the development of stations and operating costs associated with their operation. The method can be used to improve the governing and methodological documents regulating the design and development of technological processes of the main-line and industrial railway stations