Forecast Intervals for Inflation Rate and Unemployment Rate in Romania

Abstract

The main objective of this research is to construct forecast intervals for inflation and unemployment rate in Romania. Two types of techniques were employed: bootstrap technique (tpercentile method) and historical error technique (root mean square error method- RMSE). The forecast intervals based on point forecasts of National Bank of Romania (NBR) include more actual values of quarterly inflation rate during Q1:2011-Q4:2013. The proposed prediction intervals for quarterly inflation and unemployment rate contain the registered values. Considering as constant the error from previous year, we will build forecast intervals for annual inflation and unemployment rate based predictions provided by two anonymous experts on the horizon 2004-2015.All the forecast intervals for inflation rate based on first expert expectations included the actual values during 2004- 2013

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