Czeskleba-Dupont, Rolf

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At udskyde investeringerne mod global opvarmning fører ifølge Stern 2006 til meget højere omkostninger i fremtiden. Historisk har Verden allerede oplevet en sådan udskydelse og dennes omkostninger. Efter Berlinmurens fald ville mindre end 2% af det globale BNP over to årtier, svarende til en halvering af militærudgifterne, have været tistrækkeligt til at sikre Verden mod den globale opvarmning. Energiforsyningen, kemiindustrien, trnaportsektoren, landbruget og andre energianvendelsessystemer kunne være blevet rekonstrueret økologisk og u-landenes gæld afskaffet (Commoner 1990). Boomerangs af den internationale gældskrise som redningsaktionerne for USAs banker, afskovning, tab af arbejdspladser, migrationer, konflikter og krig kunne være blevet undgået (Susan George 1992).Den herskende magtblok forsvarede imidlertid hellere sin geopolitiske position og udelukkede enhver fredsdividende (Fortune 1990). Under kritiske bifurkationer bliver miljømæssigt progressive alternativer nemt forkastet. Selvom teknologisk avancerede scenarier for lav-energi veje operationaliserer konceptet bæredygtig udvikling (Czeskleba-Dupont 2003), gør man som om det var irrelevant at de falsificerer prognoser der taler om en evigt stigende efterspørgsel (WCED 1987, kap.7). I et anarkisk verdenssystems raison d'état virker det mere 'sikkert' at ekspropriere andre med vold af deres naturressourcer.According to Stern 2006, postponing investments against global warming leads to much higher costs in the future. Historically, the world already experienced such a time-delay and its costs. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, less than 2% of global GDP in two decades, available from halving military expenditure, would have been sufficient to make the world safe against global warming. The energy procurement, chemicals and transport sectors, agriculture and other energy application systems could have been reconstructed ecologically and the debt burden of developing countries removed (Commoner 1990). Boomerangs of the international debt crisis including bail-out of U.S. banks, loss of jobs, deforestation, migration, conflict and war could have been avoided (Susan George 1992). Defending its geopolitical position, the dominant block at power excluded, however, any peace dividend (Fortune 1990). In crucial bifurcations, environmentally progressive alternatives are easily dismissed. Although technologically advanced scenarios for low energy paths make the very concept of sustainable development operational (Czeskleba-Dupont 2003), it is made irrelevant that they falsify prognoses of ever rising demand (WCED 1987, chapter 7). In the raison d' état of an anarchic world-system, it seems more 'secure' by violence to expropriate others of their natural resources. </p

Roskilde Universitet

RoskildeUniversityThe 1990 peace dividenda counterfactual hypothesisCzeskleba-Dupont, RolfPublication date:2009Document VersionPublisher's PDF, also known as Version of recordCitation for published version (APA):Czeskleba-Dupont, R. (2009). The 1990 peace dividend: a counterfactual hypothesis. Poster session presentedat 1. World Congress of Environmental History, København og Malmö, Denmark.General rightsCopyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright ownersand it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.            • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research.            • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain.            • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal.Take down policyIf you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact rucforsk@ruc.dk providing details, and we will remove access to thework immediately and investigate your claim.Download date: 27. Mar. 2021Climate politics and the Peace DividendRolf Czeskleba-Dupont, Ph. D., nest@ruc.dk, Roskilde UniversityProblemPolitical time delays for eco-social reforms accelerate global warmingMethodC t f t l h th i t fi d dReaction: Postponing the Peace Dividend...“American power - and the will to use it -will remain the backbone of any future collective security arrangement... That doesn't mean the post-Cold War oun er ac ua  ypo es s o n  causes an  consequences of delaying prudent investmentsGLOBAL INVESTMENT'Peace Dividend' has been cancelled; it just has been postponed.”Investment proposition  Commoner 1990 (p.238f) Billion $  (109)pr. year over … yearsRail transport 37 10Organic agriculture 45 5 to 10Soft chemistry 75 10Use of energy 122 10U.S. Pres. Bush, Sen., Fall 1990for GeopoliticsDecarbonisation 93 20Third World debt relief  (100%) 100 10MAX. pr. year 472= around half of  defense budgets (1988)“The voguish notion that the world's geopolitical center had migrated from Washington to somewhere around Berlin was among the first casualties of the Iraqi invasion.”(Both quotations: FORTUNE Sept 10 1990 OIL...  Making Peace with the Planet (Barry Commoner, Spring 1990) Published at Earth Day, Commoner’svision should guide global eco-social restructuring to be financed by de - militarisationConsequences1 2Conclusion  , . ,   – how to achieve energy security). By realizing Commoner's 20-year plan, the World could have been saved for:• global warming • bail-out of banks • drugs as cash-crops • lost jobs + markets . As this is not the case, we still live on top of a  chaotic world-system. Who dares believe that diplomats from the states of this interstate system  will be able to implement  the stern Instead of blaming individualconsumers or hoping that markets will clear the mess,state crash programs for thousands of wind  farms and solar devices  should empower people  to do the work we • mass migration • conflict  + war (Susan George 1992: The debt boomerang. How Third World debt harms us all, TNI)logic of the Stern report of 2006: NOT to allow further time delays, but within the next 20 years to invest into a plan akin to Commoner's proposal?need.Further reading: STOP  GLOBAL WARMING -CHANGE THE WORLD!  (Jonathan Neale 2008)

The 1990 peace dividend:a counterfactual hypothesis

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The 1990 peace dividend:a counterfactual hypothesis

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