The correlation between high potential and career progression is a heatedly discussion in both academic and practitioner arenas. Validity of four signposts of high potential leaders-key career experience, learning ability, self-awareness and proactive personality-have been highlighted by empirical studies. In addition, methodology and challenges of developing high potentials are outlined to offer recommendations of real-world implications

Li, Lin

English

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What are the Academic Findings About Top Variables for 
Predicting Career Progression Potential? 
Lin Li 
Cornell University 
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What are the Academic Findings About Top Variables for Predicting Career 
Progression Potential? 
Abstract 
The correlation between high potential and career progression is a heatedly discussion in both academic 
and practitioner arenas. Validity of four signposts of high potential leaders-key career experience, learning 
ability, self-awareness and proactive personality-have been highlighted by empirical studies. In addition, 
methodology and challenges of developing high potentials are outlined to offer recommendations of real-
world implications. 
Keywords 
human resources, high potential employees, predicting career progression, development program 
Comments 
Suggested Citation 
Li, L. (2014). What are the academic findings about top variables for predicting career progression 
potential? Retrieved [insert date] from Cornell University, ILR School site: 
http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/student/56 
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Copyright by the authors. 
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ILRHR 6640 
Case #3  
Lin Li 
April 11, 2014 
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
 
FINAL QUESTION     
What are the academic findings about top variables for predicting career progression potential? How 
to develop a high potential development program? 
 
INTRODUCTION    
The correlation between high potential and career progression is a heatedly discussion in both 
academic and practitioner arenas. Validity of four signposts of high potential leaders-key career 
experience, learning ability, self-awareness and proactive personality-have been highlighted by 
empirical studies. In addition, methodology and challenges of developing high potentials are outlined 
to offer recommendations of real-world implications. 
 
FOUR SIGNPOSTS OF HIGH POTENTIAL  
Key Career Experience 
Key career experiences have been identified as a building block of high-performing leaders. A leader 
can develop a strategy, manage difficult financial situations, or hone external relationship 
management through experience, which leads to advantages to succeed when promoted to the next 
level.1 A Belgian study covers seven companies in four industries proved that variety in job 
experience is positively related to potential. 2 Appendix1 shows that on average, leaders at the highest 
levels are more likely to have had a wide range of key career experiences. 1 
 
Learning Ability 
In the increasingly complex global economy, leaders will have to tackle the new, the never-before, the 
yet-unknown, and drive positive results. People who learn from experience are skilled at recognizing 
and extracting the underlying principles of a challenge. Learning Ability, denoted by g, has been 
proved as a strong predictor of occupational attainment, even with background and socioeconomic 
status controlled.1,3 
 
Self-awareness 
Being self-aware allows high-potential leaders to understand the impact that people and situations 
have on them. They also observe the effect they have on people and situations and use that knowledge 
to manage and influence people. Korn/Ferry Institute analyzed 6,977 self-assessments from 
professionals at 486 publicly traded companies and found that those with high self-awareness tend to 
be concentrated in companies with a robust rate of return, suggesting that they might contribute to 
greater business outcomes, as illustrated by Appendix 2.1 
 
Proactive Personality   
Proactive personality is defined as “a dispositional construct that identifies differences among people 
in the extent to which they take action to influence their environment”. Proactive behavior entails a 
dynamic approach toward work seeking to improvise the existing job along with developing personal 
prerequisites for furthering career success and organizational effectiveness. A study conducted with 
120 samples shows that proactive personality had a robust relationship with career future and 
explained 45% of the variance. 4,5 
HOW TO DEVELOP HIGH POTENTIALS  
Roadmap 
By definition, developing high potentials mandates critical investment of time and resources for the 
employer. The process for identifying high potentials requires due diligence, clear criteria, accurate 
data, and careful decision making. High-potential programs often fail because they focus too much on 
optimizing the technical process and too little on the leader’s personal experience.6 A dynamic system 
is essential component in organizational strategic talent management that aligns to increase 
identification, engagement, and retention of talented leaders. Appendix 3 illustrates the conceptual 
model of high potential development roadmap. 6 
 
Roadblocks 
Challenge #1: High Potential Evaluation Conducted as Part of General Talent Review Process 
As mentioned, the leader’s personal experience is key to the success of high potential development. 
High potential talents should be considered a separate group in evaluation and review process to 
maximize strategic alignment and personal experience. In real practice, however, the critical task of 
evaluating talent often isn’t afforded the time and rigor it deserves. Frankly, this neglect can amount 
to a dangerous process gap that prevents an organization from making accurate talent decisions and 
ensuring the right high potentials are selected for accelerated development. 
Solution #1: Create focus and rigor by engaging key managers in talent review and evaluation
6
 
 
Challenge #2: Rating Too Many Candidates 
A common practice in talent reviews is to have managers evaluate all direct reports on potential. But a 
top-talent or acceleration pool is to be selective—to identify a relatively small number of individuals 
as prime investment targets. Generating a pool of high potentials by rating all candidates, even lower 
performers or newer people, can be time-consuming and ineffective.  
Solution #2: Limit the talent review to initial prospective high-potential candidates, and 
thoroughly consider their candidacy by criteria, tools, and consensus-building techniques 
6
 
 
Challenge #3: Vaguely Definition of Potential 
Not surprisingly, high potential still remains a somewhat vague concept for many companies with 
established process of talent review. The constitution of potential is often subject to variety in opinion 
and the rater’s own preferences and biases. Another challenge is that development is often left out in 
the process. Motivation, diligence in developing, as well as the development opportunities made 
available, have considerable impact on individuals’ ability to reach their potential. 6 
Solution #3: Replace intuitive definitions of high potential with standard, research-based factors 
that are predictive of future potential 
 
Challenge #4: Potential vs. Readiness 
Often the determination of potential exhibits readiness for a senior-level role or job due to risk-
adverse judgments, i.e. “best guess” of the candidate’s possible trajectory. The confusion between 
potential and readiness is commonplace in evaluating high potential and planning development 
programs. Appendix 4 outlines the definition of performance, potential and readiness.7 
Solution #4: Clarify terms by thinking about potential and readiness as sequential steps in high-
potential development 
6 
 
 
 
 
APPENDICES  
 
APPENDIX 1 
 
 
APPENDIX 2 
 
 
 
 
 
 
APPENDIX 3 
 
 
APPENDIX 4 
 
 
 
REFERENCES  
1. Sevy, B., Swisher, V., & Orr, J. E. (n.d.). Seven Signposts Pointing to High-Potential Leaders. PDI 
Ninth House News RSS. Retrieved April 10, 2014, from http://www.pdinh.com/thought-
leadership/research/seven-signposts-pointing-high-potential-leaders 
 
2. Jencks, C., Bartlett, S., Corcoran, M., Crouse, J., Eaglesfield, D., Jackson,G. et al. (1979). Who gets 
ahead? The determinants of economic successin America. New York: Basic Books, Inc. 
 
3. Dries, N., Vantilborgh, T., & Pepermans, R. (2012). The role of learning agility and career variety 
in the identification and development of high potential employees. Personnel Review, 41(3), 340-358. 
doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/00483481211212977 
 
4. Seibert, S. E., Kraimer, M. L., & Crant, J. M. (2001). What do proactive people do? A longitudinal 
model linking proactive personality and career success. Personnel Psychology, 54(4), 845-874.  
 
5. Prabhu, V. P. (2013). Proactive personality and career future: Testing a conceptual model and 
exploring potential mediators and moderators. American Journal of Management, 13(1), 11-31.  
 
6. Hanson, E. (n.d.). TALENT REVIEWS AND HIGH-POTENTIAL IDENTIFICATION: 
OVERCOMING FIVE COMMON CHALLENGES. DDIWORLD. Retrieved from 
http://www.ddiworld.com/DDIWorld/media/white-
papers/talentreviewsandhighpotentialidentification_wp_ddi.pdf?ext=.pdf 
 
7. High-Potential Experience Cycle™ Reframe Your Organization’s High-Potential Program for 
Optimal Impact. (n.d.). PDI Ninth House. Retrieved from 
http://www.pdinh.com/sites/default/files/HighPotentialExperienceCycle_GlanceSeries_0.pdf 
 
ADDITIONAL READINGS  
1. Murphy, T. (2004). Predicting career progression amongst high-potential employees: Job 
performance, career clarity, and developmental implications. (Order No. NQ94230, University of 
Toronto (Canada)). Retrieved from 
http://link.library.utoronto.ca/eir/EIRdetail.cfm?Resources__ID=94615&T=F 
 
2. Fernández-Aráoz, C., Groysberg, B., & Nohria, N. (2011). How to Hang On to Your High 
Potentials. Harvard Business Review. Retrieved April 11, 2014, from http://hbr.org/2011/10/how-to-
hang-on-to-your-high-potentials/ar/1 Full text available at 
http://ahen.ache.org/Documents/Fernandez%20-
%20How%20to%20Hang%20on%20to%20Your%20High%20Potentials.pdf 
 
3.  Getting to Leadership Talent Analytics. (n.d.). PDI Ninth House. Retrieved April 10, 2014, from 
http://www.pdinh.com/sites/default/files/u20/GettingLeadershipTalentAna2011_12-2011_Final.pdf 
 
4. Zehner, R. L., & Holton,Elwood F., I.,II. (2004). Development and validation of an instrument for 
early assessment of management potential in a mid-size chemical company. Performance 
Improvement Quarterly, 17(3), 5-22. Retrieved from: 
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1937-8327.2004.tb00311.x/abstract 


What are the Academic Findings About Top Variables for Predicting Career Progression Potential?

The correlation between high potential and career progression is a heatedly discussion in both academic and practitioner arenas. Validity of four signposts of high potential leaders-key career experience, learning ability, self-awareness and proactive personality-have been highlighted by empirical studies. In addition, methodology and challenges of developing high potentials are outlined to offer recommendations of real-world implications.What_Are_the_Academic_Findings_About_Top_Variables_for_Predicting_Career_Progresssion_Potential.pdf: 350 downloads, before Oct. 1, 2020

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