Padi dapat tumbuh di hampir seluruh pulau di Indonesia, tetapi 57 persen padi di produksi di Pulau Jawa, dengan luasan kurang dari 10 persen dari total luasan di Indonesia. Studi mengenai prospek peningkatan produksi padi nasional penting dilakukan sebagai antisipasi meningkatnya konsumsi beras, terkhusus dengan memanfaatkan lahan di luar Pulau Jawa. Tujuan penelitian ini yaitumengidentifikasi prospek peningkatan produksi beras nasional, terutama di luar Jawa, dari perspektif faktor produksi padi dan efisiensin teknis ditingkat petani. Dengan menggunakan stochastic frontier, fungsi produksi translog menunjukan bahwa peningkatan input (lahan, benih, pupuk dan pestisida) tidak banyak meningkatkan produksi padi di Pulau Jawa dan luar Pulau Jawa (inelastis), sedangkan tenaga kerja bertanda negatif. Berdasarkan hasil efisiensi teknis, potensi petani untuk meningkatkan produksi padi di Jawa dan luar Jawa sebesar 28 dan 39 persen. Selain itu, analisis menunjukan irigasi, status lahan, kelompok tani dan pendidikan petani memengaruhi efisiensi teknis. Penelitian ini dapat disimpukan bahwa prospek peningkatkan produksi padi dengan efisiensi teknis di luar Pulau Jawa lebih tinggi daripada di Pulau Jawa. Namun, peningkatan produksi padi di luar Pulau Jawa dapat dilakukan dengan membangun lahan irigasi. Selain itu, untuk meningkatkan produksi padi secara signifikan diperlukannya teknologi produksi padi baru baik di Jawa dan luar Jawa.Rice can grow in almost all of the islands in Indonesia, but 57 per cent of it was produced in Java, which is less than 10 per cent of the national area in Indonesia. To anticipate the increasing need for rice consumption, it is important to study the prospects for increasing national rice production, especially by utilizing the potential of agricultural land outside Java island. The purpose of this study was to identify the prospects for the development of national rice, especially outside Java island, from the perspective of rice production factors and technical efficiency at the farm level. Using stochastic frontier analysis, the translog production function showed that the increasing use of inputs (land, seeds, fertilizers, pesticides) will not significantly increase rice production both in Java and outside Java island (inelastic). Technical efficiency analysis indicated that rice production in Java and outside Java island was 28 and 39 per cent below its frontier, respectively. Further analysis showed that irrigation, land status, farmer groups, and farmer education were significantly improved technical efficiency. This study concluded that the potential to increase rice production by increasing technical efficiency outside of Java island was greater than in Java island. However, increasing the efficiency of rice production outside Java may be constrained by the availability of irrigated agricultural land. To significantly increase national rice production both in Java and outside Java island, a breakthrough in new rice production technology is needed
