Are the dimensions of private information more multiple than expected? Information asymmetries in the market of supplementary private health insurance in England

Our study reexamines standard econometric approaches for the detection of information asymmetries on insurance markets. We claim that evidence based on a standard framework with 2 equations, which uses potential sources of information asymmetries, should stress the importance of heterogeneity in the parameters. We argue that conclusions derived from this methodology can be misleading if the estimated coefficients in such an `unused characteristics' framework are driven by different parts of the population. We show formally that an individual's expected risk from the perspective of insurance, conditioned on certain characteristics (which are not used for calculating the risk premium), can equal the population's expectation in risk { although such characteristics are both related to risk and insurance probability, which is usually interpreted as an indicator of information asymmetries. We provide empirical evidence on the existence of information asymmetries in the market for supplementary private health insurance in the UK. Overall, we found evidence for advantageous selection into the private risk pool; ie people with lower health risk tend to insure more. The main drivers of this phenomenon seem to be characteristics such as income and wealth. Nevertheless, we also found parameter heterogeneity to be relevant, leading to possible misinterpretation if the standard `unused characteristics' approach is applied

Residual Log-Periodogram Inference for Long-Run-Relationships

We assume that some consistent estimator of an equilibrium relation between non-stationary series integrated of order d E (0:5; 1:5) is used to compute residuals ˆut = yt - xt (or differences there of). We propose to apply the semiparametric log-periodogram regression to the (differenced) residuals in order to estimate or test the degree of persistence ± of the equilibrium deviation ut. Provided converges fast enough, we describe simple semiparametric conditions around zero frequency that guarantee consistent estimation of ±. At the same time limiting normality is derived, which allows to construct approximate confidence intervals to test hypotheses on ±. This requires that d ¡ ± > 0:5 for superconsistent b¯, so the residuals can be good proxies of true cointegrating errors. Our assumptions allow for stationary deviations with long memory, 0 · ± < 0:5, as well as for non-stationary but transitory equilibrium errors, 0:5 < ± < 1. In particular, if xt contains several series we consider the joint estimation of d and ±. Wald statistics to test for parameter restrictions of the system have a limiting Â2 distribution. We also analyze the benefits of a pooled version of the estimate. The empirical applicability of our general cointegration test is investigated by means of Monte Carlo experiments and illustrated with a study of exchange rate dynamics

A Minimal Model of Burst-Noise Induced Bistability

We investigate the influence of intrinsic noise on stable states of a one-dimensional dynamical system that shows in its deterministic version a saddle-node bifurcation between monostable and bistable behaviour. The system is a modified version of the Schl\"ogl model, which is a chemical reaction system with only one type of molecule. The strength of the intrinsic noise is varied without changing the deterministic description by introducing bursts in the autocatalytic production step. We study the transitions between monostable and bistable behavior in this system by evaluating the number of maxima of the stationary probability distribution. We find that changing the size of bursts can destroy and even induce saddle-node bifurcations. This means that a bursty production of molecules can qualitatively change the dynamics of a chemical reaction system even when the deterministic description remains unchanged.Comment: 7 pages, 9 figure

Motion of inertial particles in Gaussian fields driven by an infinite-dimensional fractional Brownian motion

We study the motion of an inertial particle in a fractional Gaussian random field. The motion of the particle is described by Newton's second law, where the force is proportional to the difference between a background fluid velocity and the particle velocity. The fluid velocity satisfies a linear stochastic partial differential equation driven by an infinite-dimensional fractional Brownian motion with arbitrary Hurst parameter H in (0,1). The usefulness of such random velocity fields in simulations is that we can create random velocity fields with desired statistical properties, thus generating artificial images of realistic turbulent flows. This model captures also the clustering phenomenon of preferential concentration, observed in real world and numerical experiments, i.e. particles cluster in regions of low vorticity and high strain rate. We prove almost sure existence and uniqueness of particle paths and give sufficient conditions to rewrite this system as a random dynamical system with a global random pullback attractor. Finally, we visualize the random attractor through a numerical experiment.Comment: 30 pages, 1 figur

Finiteness Properties of Chevalley Groups over the Laurent Polynomial Ring over a Finite Field

We show that if G is a Chevalley group of rank n and F_q[t,t^{-1}] is the ring of Laurent polynomials over a finite field, then G(F_q[t,t^{-1}]) is of type F_{2n-1}. This bound is optimal because it is known -- and we show again -- that the group is not of type F_{2n}.Comment: 36 pages, 4 figure

The Principle of Population vs. the Malthusian Trap

In spite of two centuries of extensive debate, a consistent framework of the classical theory of population on which economists can universally agree has not been established. This means that either the theory lacks consistency or it has been misunderstood in important ways. This paper attempts to settle this issue by arguing that the latter was the case, revealing prevailing misconceptions. Since a large amount of these misconceptions most probably arose from the lack of a consistent nomenclature, the paper intends to clarify the classical theory of population by employing unambiguous definitions of the principle of population, the Malthusian trap, positive checks and preventive checks to population. The classical theory of population can then be applied to analyze the transition from economic stagnation to economic growth. As a result, numerous current theories trying to explain the transition to growth that are based on an increase of pro- duction will prove secondary when compared to the great preventive check

Noumenal Technology: Reflections on the Incredible Tininess of Nano

Noumena are distinct from phenomena. While the latter are the things as they appear to us and as we experience them, the noumena are the philosophically infamous and mysterious things-in- themselves.2 The “noumenal technology” referred to in the title of this paper would therefore appear to be a contradiction in terms: Technology is a human creation that involves human knowledge and serves human needs; this firmly roots it in phenomena and it appears absurd to speak of technology that exists beyond human perception and experience among the things-in-themselves. The noumenal world is nature uncomprehended, unexperienced, and uncontrolled; it is nature in the sense of uncultivated, uncanny otherness. By speaking of “noumenal technology” this paper argues that some technologies are retreating from human access, perception, and control, and thus assume the character of this uncanny otherness. Three seemingly disparate reflections prepare the formulation of this thesis, and the remaining sections work to establish at least its plausibility

Information Exchange for Connection Dispatching

Travellers in public transport today expect current, precise and individual information. Existing systems have different approaches to provide this information. Most of them use proprietary exchange formats as existing standardized interfaces do not fulfil all needs. The German standardization project IP-KOM-OeV develops an interface that fulfils focuses on a service which allows to inform the traveller about his connections but also to inform the transportation companies about the travellers’ planned connections. The latter can have a direct impact on the operations when the connection demands are taken into consideration for the connection dispatching. We will present the results of the standardization project regarding the connection service and show how this service can be used by transportation companies to improve connection dispatching

Only in the Heat of the Moment? A Study of the Relationship between Weather and Mortality in Germany

In this study we analyze the relationship between heat events and mortality in Germany. The main research questions are: Does heat lead to rising mortality and if yes, are the effects persistent or compensated for in the near future? Furthermore, we consider differences between heat effects in urban and rural environments. Cause specific daily mortality and meteorological data is connected on the county level. We allow for static as well as dynamic relations between extreme temperatures and mortality and implement several panel data estimation approaches. We find that heat has a significant positive impact on mortality. The strongest effects can be measured on the day when heat occurs and the first week afterwards. The mortality increase ranges between 0.003 and 3.5 per 100,000 inhabitants depending on the particular death cause. We do not find a significant negative, and thus compensating impact in a medium term, which is in the contrary to the Harvesting Hypothesis. Using a value of statistical life approach we estimate that one additional hot day in Germany induces for the overall population a loss of m € 1,861. Moreover, the environment plays an important role. The heat induced increase in mortality is significantly higher in urban areas