Learning backward induction: a neural network agent approach

This paper addresses the question of whether neural networks (NNs), a realistic cognitive model of human information processing, can learn to backward induce in a two-stage game with a unique subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium. The NNs were found to predict the Nash equilibrium approximately 70% of the time in new games. Similarly to humans, the neural network agents are also found to suffer from subgame and truncation inconsistency, supporting the contention that they are appropriate models of general learning in humans. The agents were found to behave in a bounded rational manner as a result of the endogenous emergence of decision heuristics. In particular a very simple heuristic socialmax, that chooses the cell with the highest social payoff explains their behavior approximately 60% of the time, whereas the ownmax heuristic that simply chooses the cell with the maximum payoff for that agent fares worse explaining behavior roughly 38%, albeit still significantly better than chance. These two heuristics were found to be ecologically valid for the backward induction problem as they predicted the Nash equilibrium in 67% and 50% of the games respectively. Compared to various standard classification algorithms, the NNs were found to be only slightly more accurate than standard discriminant analyses. However, the latter do not model the dynamic learning process and have an ad hoc postulated functional form. In contrast, a NN agent’s behavior evolves with experience and is capable of taking on any functional form according to the universal approximation theorem.

Contemporary perspective on addictive behaviors: underpinning mechanisms, assessment, and treatment

This special issue gathered contributions from authors in the scientifc community working on addictive behaviors. In particular, authors were solicited to relate about underpinning mechanisms, assessment protocols, and intervention programs that are currently proposed for substance abuse, Internet addiction, and other forms of problematic conducts in pediatric populations, adolescence, and adulthood. Most of the papers used a biopsychosocial model for the onset and maintaining of addictive behaviors and their comorbidities with other psychopathologies. Although the intent was accept contributions focused on all forms of addictive behaviors, this special issue is composed of four papers concerning problematic use of the web and two articles focusing on substance use. Of note, all papers addressed the developmental phases of childhood and adolescence

Prevalence of and Factors Associated with Negative Microscopic Diagnosis of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Rural Peru.

Cutaneous leishmaniasis is endemic to South America where diagnosis is most commonly conducted via microscopy. Patients with suspected leishmaniasis were referred for enrollment by the Ministry of Health (MoH) in Lima, Iquitos, Puerto Maldonado, and several rural areas of Peru. A 43-question survey requesting age, gender, occupation, characterization of the lesion(s), history of leishmaniasis, and insect-deterrent behaviors was administered. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was conducted on lesion materials at the Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6 in Lima, and the results were compared with those obtained by the MoH using microscopy. Factors associated with negative microscopy and positive PCR results were identified using

Trajectories of aggressive and depressive symptoms in male and female overweight children. Do they share a common path or do they follow different routes?

The prevalence of childhood overweight is a major social and public health issue, and primary assessment should focus on early and middle childhood, because weight gain in these phases constitutes a strong predictor of subsequent negative outcomes. Studies on community samples have shown that growth curves may follow linear or non-linear trajectories from early to middle childhood, and can differ based on sex. Overweight children may exhibit a combination of physiological and psychosocial issues, and several studies have demonstrated an association between overweight and internalizing/externalizing behavior. Nevertheless, there is a dearth of longitudinal studies on depressive and aggressive symptoms in children with high BMI. This study adopted a growth curve modeling over three phases to: (1) describe BMI trajectories in two groups of children aged 2–8 (overweight and normal weight) from a community sample; (2) describe the developmental trajectories of children’s aggressive and depressive symptoms from 2 to 8 years of age. Results indicate higher BMI in 2-year-old girls, with males catching up with them by age 8. While overweight females’ BMIs were consistently high, males’ increased at 5 and 8 years. The mean scores for aggressive symptoms at T1 (2 years of age) were the same in all subjects, but a significant deviation occurred from T1 to T2 in both samples, in divergent directions. With regards to children’s depressive symptoms, the two groups had different starting points, with normal weight children scoring lower than overweight youths. Overweight females showed lower depressive scores than overweight males at T1, but they surpassed boys before T2, and showed more maladaptive symptoms at T3. This study solicits professionals working in pediatric settings to consider overweight children’s psychopathological risk, and to be aware that even when children’s BMI does not increase from 2 to 8 years, their psychopathological symptoms may grow in intensit

Sweetened beverages, snacks and overweight: findings from the Young Lives cohort study in Peru

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between consumption of snacks and sweetened beverages and risk of overweight among children. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of the Young Lives cohort study in Peru. SETTING: Twenty sentinel sites from a total of 1818 districts available in Peru. SUBJECTS: Children in the younger cohort of the Young Lives study in Peru, specifically those included in the third (2009) and the fourth (2013) rounds. RESULTS: A total of 1813 children were evaluated at baseline; 49·2 % girls and mean age 8·0 (sd 0·3) years. At baseline, 3·3 (95 % CI 2·5, 4·2) % reported daily sweetened beverage consumption, while this proportion was 3·9 (95 % CI 3·1, 4·9) % for snacks. Baseline prevalence of overweight was 22·0 (95 % CI 20·1, 23·9) %. Only 1414 children were followed for 4·0 (sd 0·1) years, with an overweight incidence of 3·6 (95 % CI 3·1, 4·1) per 100 person-years. In multivariable analysis, children who consumed sweetened beverages and snacks daily had an average weight increase of 2·29 (95 % CI 0·62, 3·96) and 2·04 (95 % CI 0·48, 3·60) kg more, respectively, than those who never consumed these products, in approximately 4 years of follow-up. Moreover, there was evidence of an association between daily consumption of sweetened beverages and risk of overweight (relative risk=2·12; 95 % CI 1·05, 4·28). CONCLUSIONS: Daily consumption of sweetened beverages and snacks was associated with increased weight gain v. never consuming these products; and in the case of sweetened beverages, with higher risk of developing overweight

Simultaneous Measurements of Star Formation and Supermassive Black Hole Growth in Galaxies

Galaxies grow their supermassive black holes in concert with their stars, although the relationship between these major galactic components is poorly understood. Observations of the cosmic growth of stars and black holes in galaxies suffer from disjoint samples and the strong effects of dust attenuation. The thermal infrared holds incredible potential for simultaneously measuring both the star formation and black hole accretion rates in large samples of galaxies covering a wide range of physical conditions. Spitzer demonstrated this potential at low redshift, and by observing some of the most luminous galaxies at z~2. JWST will apply these methods to normal galaxies at these epochs, but will not be able to generate large spectroscopic samples or access the thermal infrared at high-redshift. An order of magnitude gap in our wavelength coverage will persist between JWST and ALMA. A large, cold infrared telescope can fill this gap to determine when (in cosmic time), and where (within the cosmic web), stars and black holes co-evolve, by measuring these processes simultaneously in statistically complete and unbiased samples of galaxies to z>8. A next-generation radio interferometer will have the resolution and sensitivity to measure star-formation and nuclear accretion in even the dustiest galaxies. Together, the thermal infrared and radio can uniquely determine how stars and supermassive blackholes co-evolve in galaxies over cosmic time

EZSCAN for undiagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The EZSCAN is a non-invasive device that, by evaluating sweat gland function, may detect subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The aim of the study was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis including studies assessing the performance of the EZSCAN for detecting cases of undiagnosed T2DM. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched for observational studies including diagnostic accuracy and performance results assessing EZSCAN for detecting cases of undiagnosed T2DM. OVID (Medline, Embase, Global Health), CINAHL and SCOPUS databases, plus secondary resources, were searched until March 29, 2017. The following keywords were utilized for the systematic searching: type 2 diabetes mellitus, hyperglycemia, EZSCAN, SUDOSCAN, and sudomotor function. Two investigators extracted the information for meta-analysis and assessed the quality of the data using the Revised Version of the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) checklist. Pooled estimates were obtained by fitting the logistic-normal random-effects model without covariates but random intercepts and using the Freeman-Tukey Arcsine Transformation to stabilize variances. Heterogeneity was also assessed using the I2 measure. Four studies (n = 7,720) were included, three of them used oral glucose tolerance test as the gold standard. Using Hierarchical Summary Receiver Operating Characteristic model, summary sensitivity was 72.0% (95%CI: 60.0%- 83.0%), whereas specificity was 56.0% (95%CI: 38.0%- 74.0%). Studies were very heterogeneous (I2 for sensitivity: 79.2% and for specificity: 99.1%) regarding the inclusion criteria and bias was present mainly due to participants selection. CONCLUSIONS: The sensitivity of EZSCAN for detecting cases of undiagnosed T2DM seems to be acceptable, but evidence of high heterogeneity and participant selection bias was detected in most of the studies included. More studies are needed to evaluate the performance of the EZSCAN for undiagnosed T2DM screening, especially at the population level

Fruits and vegetables consumption and depressive symptoms: A population-based study in Peru.

OBJECTIVES: Among different factors, diet patterns seem to be related to depression. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between the consumption of fruits and/or vegetables and depressive symptoms. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A secondary data analysis was conducted using information from a population-based survey from 25 regions from Peru. The outcome was the presence of depressive symptoms according to the Patient Health Questionnaire (cutoff ≥15 to define major depressive syndrome); whereas the exposure was the self-reported consumption of fruits and/or vegetables (in tertiles and using WHO recommendation ≥5 servings/day). The association of interest was evaluated using Poisson regression models controlling for the complex-sample survey design and potential confounders. Data from 25,901 participants were analyzed, mean age 44.2 (SD: 17.7) and 13,944 (54.0%) women. Only 910 (3.8%; 95%CI: 3.5%-4.2%) individuals reported consuming ≥5 servings of fruits and/or vegetables/day; whereas 819 (2.8%; 95%CI: 2.5%-3.1%) had depressive symptoms. Those in the lowest tertile of fruits and/or vegetables consumption had greater prevalence of depressive symptoms (PR = 1.88; 95%CI: 1.39-2.55) than those in the highest tertile. This association was stronger with fruits (PR = 1.92; 95%CI: 1.46-2.53) than vegetables (PR = 1.42; 95%CI: 1.05-1.93) alone. CONCLUSIONS: An inverse relationship between consumption of fruits and/or vegetables and depressive symptoms is reported. Less than 5% of subjects reported consuming the amount of fruits and vegetables recommended by the WHO. There is a need to implement strategies to promote better diet patterns with potential impact on mental health

Introducción al concepto derivada: Un diseño experimental con estudiantes universitarios de humanidades

La investigación presenta una propuesta didáctica sobre el aprendizaje de la derivada, a través de las relaciones entre pendiente y razón de cambio, conceptos que permitirán al estudiante construir un sistema de representaciones más sólido para acceder al estudio variacional. El estudio tiene el propósito de aminorar las dificultades que estos estudiantes enfrentan al realizar el estudio de las derivadas, dificultades como: la comprensión del concepto derivada, la relación entre la razón de cambio promedio y la razón de cambio instantáneo, concebir a la derivada como una función y deducir información relevante de situaciones gráficas, entre otros. Parte fundamental del experimento consiste en recurrir a la noción de representación, pues la función simbólica es la actividad cognitiva, que permite al ser humano acceder al conocimiento. Para desarrollar la investigación nos apoyaremos en algunos aspectos de la teoría de registros semióticos de Duval (2004) y la metodología de diseños experimentales (Cobb, P. Confrey, J., DiSessa, A., Lehrer, R., Schauble, L. y Hodge, L. 2003)

Which population level environmental factors are associated with asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema? Review of the ecological analyses of ISAAC Phase One.

The International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) Phase One showed large worldwide variations in the prevalence of symptoms of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema, up to 10 to 20 fold between countries. Ecological analyses were undertaken with ISAAC Phase One data to explore factors that may have contributed to these variations, and are summarised and reviewed here.In ISAAC Phase One the prevalence of symptoms in the past 12 months of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema were estimated from studies in 463,801 children aged 13 - 14 years in 155 centres in 56 countries, and in 257,800 children aged 6-7 years in 91 centres in 38 countries. Ecological analyses were undertaken between symptom prevalence and the following: Gross National Product per capita (GNP), food intake, immunisation rates, tuberculosis notifications, climatic factors, tobacco consumption, pollen, antibiotic sales, paracetamol sales, and outdoor air pollution.Symptom prevalence of all three conditions was positively associated with GNP, trans fatty acids, paracetamol, and women smoking, and inversely associated with food of plant origin, pollen, immunisations, tuberculosis notifications, air pollution, and men smoking. The magnitude of these associations was small, but consistent in direction between conditions. There were mixed associations of climate and antibiotic sales with symptom prevalence.The potential causality of these associations warrant further investigation. Factors which prevent the development of these conditions, or where there is an absence of a positive correlation at a population level may be as important from the policy viewpoint as a focus on the positive risk factors. Interventions based on small associations may have the potential for a large public health benefit