The Impact of Affinity on World Economic Integration: The Case of Japanese Foreign Direct Investment

This paper finds that a country’s affinity with a foreign country has a positive effect on foreign direct investment flows from it to that country, by analyzing Japanese foreign direct investment outflows during the period of 1995 to 2009. A rise in affinity between countries is thought to enhance their mutual trust and as a result lower the transaction costs of economic activities between them, thereby helping to promote bilateral foreign direct investment flows. These findings imply that a rise in affinity among countries is likely to facilitate international economic integration.JEL Classification Codes: F2Embargo Period 24 monthshttp://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/chey_hyoung-kyu

Using experimental manipulation of questionnaire design and a Kenyan panel to test for the reliability of reported perceptions of climate change and adaptation

While the use of surveys to understand perception of climate change and adaptation is common in research on agriculture, the reliability of aspects of the methodology is still largely untested. In particular there is limited evidence on (i) the degree to which measures of perception are sensitive to questionnaire design (ii) the accuracy of recall methods for climate change and (iii) the degree to which measures of adaptation based on recall from one-time surveys match the historical record. Using an established panel of farmers from across Kenya and a split sample method, I test both the sensitivity of stated perceptions of climate change to question format and the accuracy of recalled adaptations. In one treatment farmers face open-ended questions about temperature and rainfall changes while in the other treatment farmers are offered closed-end questions. Both approaches are common in the voluminous literature on climate change adaptation. Responses are highly sensitive to question format, both in the degree of perceived change and in the types of changes. Stated adaptations are not so sensitive to question format, but still diverge. Stated adaptations do not correspond well to the historical record of farming practices over the 15 years of the panel. Overall, the evidence suggests that researchers and policy-makers should be highly cautious in their use of subjective perceptions of climate change and the use of adaptation measures based on recall data.I gratefully acknowledge funding from the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies for piloting work and from JSPS Kakenhi Grant Number 25101002 for the main eld work.http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/munro_alistair

Innovation Indicators: for a critical reflection on their use in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs)

It has been widely recognized that innovation is an important driver of economic growth. Many Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) have adopted innovation indicators to monitor innovation performance and to evaluate the impact of innovation policies. This paper argues that innovation indicators should be customized to the different socio-economic structures of LMICs. For this, the definition of innovation needs to be relevant to the multitude of innovation actors and processes in LMICs. LMICs also need to build competences not only in the construction of innovation indicators within their statistical systems, but also in the use of these indicators by among others policy makers. Especially as the fourth edition of the Oslo Manual (OM 2018) has broadened the scope of “innovation”, opening up policy space for LMICs to accommodate the diversity in their national systems of innovation and to develop accompanying innovation indicators.JEL Classification Codes: O38, O32, O29, P47http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/iizuka-michiko

Intrahousehold Bargaining and Agricultural Technology Adoption : Experimental Evidence from Zambia

This study examines how technology adoption is determined in an intra-household bargaining process between spouses with different incentives and resource constraints. We develop a noncooperative bargaining model in which individual investments affect not only a household’s total income but also its members’ future bargaining position, which can yield Pareto-inferior outcomes. To test for possible inefficiency, we introduce rice seeds to farmers in rural Zambia and randomly distribute vouchers for transportation from the village to a miller in town to husbands and wives. The results show that the identity of the voucher recipients matters for rice seed take-up when wives choose which crop to grow on suitable plots for rice production. We also find that the voucher given to husbands is effective only when they manage the plots by themselves. Furthermore, intra-household information flows are distorted by the recipients. The heterogeneous effects and incomplete information sharing among spouses provide evidence against efficient resource pooling within the family. We present suggestive evidence that limited commitment to the production plan is a key mechanism behind strategic spousal behavior. Overall, this study highlights the importance of directly targeting individuals with productive resources relevant to a technology.This study was financially supported by JSPS KAKENHI No. 16H02733.http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/kijima-yoko

Effect of a Health Shock on Working Hours and Health Care Usage: The role of Financial Inclusion

This study explores the role of financial inclusion in the mitigation of the effects of a health shock at the household level. To that end, we examine empirically the effect of financial inclusion on household working hours and health care utilization, using round six of the Ghana Living Standard Survey data. We find that a health shock does decrease household working hours and increase the likelihood of health care utilization. This suggests that households in Ghana are not able to fully insure themselves against a health shock. However, we find that, faced with a health shock, households who are financially excluded see their working hours reduce more than those who enjoy full financial inclusion. Also, financial inclusion increases the likelihood of health care utilization when households experience a health shock. We find evidence that loan acquisition (borrowing) is one of the main mechanisms by which households can insure themselves against a health shock. Generally, our findings support the financial inclusion agenda of policymakers in Ghana and many other countries. Thus, efforts to ensure full financial inclusion will increase the probability of households using the financial sector as a means of insulating themselves against the effects of health shocks.JEL Classification Codes: O12, I10, G21, J22http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/leon_gonzalez_roberto

Economic De-integration in North America and Foreign Direct Investment from Japan

We investigate the impact of US steel and aluminum tariffs, and the resumption of auto tariffs under the revised North American Free Trade Agreement, on trade in North America and foreign direct investment (FDI) from Japan, from the perspective of the auto industry. The results of policy simulation analyses with a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model are as follows. Canada and Mexico would benefit from US steel and aluminum tariffs, being alternative trade partners with both the US and other countries. Due to the auto tariffs on intra-North America exports, Canada and Mexico would lose a large part of the windfall benefits from the US steel and aluminum tariffs. Japan’s FDI in Canada and Mexico would fall sharply. The more de-integrated North American economies become, the more Japan would regain its auto production, although at a painful cost in terms of welfare. That negative welfare impact would be neutralized by abolition of auto tariffs with the US.This study is partly supported by JSPS KAKENHI (Nos. 16H0360, 19K01622). Firm-level data in the Survey on Overseas Business Activities are provided by the Japanese Ministry of Economy,Trade and Industry.http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/hosoe_nobuhiro

Transformation of the rural economy in the Philippines, 1988-2006

This research explores the changing structure of the rural economy in the Philippines from 1988 to 2006. We found that the expansion and upgrade of infrastructure such as electricity and roads and investment in secondary and tertiary education are important factors that induced the economic transformation of the rural economy. The importance of higher education as an entry requirement to the nonfarm labor market has declined over time, indicating that the rural nonfarm sector has been increasingly providing employment opportunities to the unskilled and the uneducated, which form the bulk of the rural poor.Embargo Period 18 monthshttp://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/estudillo_jonna/http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/otsuka_keijiro

新型コロナウイルス感染症の広がりに関する一考察

1. 本研究では，東京都，大阪府，神奈川県の3自治体を取り上げ，簡単な感染症数理モデルをあてはめて種々のデータと整合性のある形で新型コロナウイルス感染症の感染実態を説明することを試みた．項目4から8がモデルによる解析の主たる結果である．2. 解析に用いるモデルはSIRモデルの単純な一変種で，未感染者・感染者・免疫保持者の割合の時間的変化を記述する．感染者は感染後一定期間(15日間) は他人に感染させる力があり，その後免疫保持者となる．感染者が感染力を持つ期間の感染力は(感染力パラメータβ) × (その時点での未感染者率) である．自粛や緊急事態宣言等の影響を，βの日毎の変化としてモデル化した．モデル自身はその考え方も記述も高等学校の数学の範疇で理解できるものである．3. 解析に用いたデータは下記の通りである．(a) 各自治体によって発表されている日ごとのPCR検査の陽性者数,(b) 厚生労働省新型コロナウイルス感染症対策専門家会議より2020年5月1日に発表された，東京都における日ごとの発症数（のグラフ），(c) 東京大学(2020年５月15日プレスリリース) と大阪市立大学(2020年5月1日プレスリリース) から発表された抗体検査の結果.4. 本感染症の実際の新規感染者数は，各自治体が把握している新規陽性者数の20倍程度はいる可能性があることが判明した．おそらくはこれらの感染者は，罹患中は感染源となるにもかかわらず，本人自身は未発症かごく軽症に終わり，自治体がその実態，感染プロセスを遅滞なく把握することは困難であると考えられる．仮に，発症者よりも感染力が弱いとしても，これらの未把握感染者は人数的には発症者の20倍程度おり，自由に活動し続けるため，感染が拡大していく上で主要な役割を果たしている可能性もある．したがって，ウイルス根絶のためには，行政が把握している新規陽性者が0となっただけでは不十分で，その状態をそれなりの期間継続する必要がある．5. 東京都において，5月25日に緊急事態宣言の解除が行われた．仮に3週間前後かけて3月26日以前のレベルの社会・経済活動に戻し，そのまま活動を続けると，7月上旬から中旬には感染者が急増する．さらに，仮に，それをそのまま放置すると，10月中旬にピークを迎える大流行となり，12月初旬には収束する．都民の88％が罹患し，36万人が発症し，7万2千人が重症化する．ピーク時には（現在の行政的意味で）1万7千人強の陽性者が1日に発生すると予測される．(これは，あくまでモデルによる試算である．実際には，今回すでに行われたような適切な活動制限・自粛を行うことによって回避可能である．西浦による4月15日の全国についての予測とオーダー的には合致している．)6. 直近の戦略について述べると，6月30日まで緊急事態宣言解除を延期して，その後比較的早く3月下旬のレベルまで社会活動を戻す方が，現行の解除戦略よりも，第２波が起こるまでにより長期間の活動が可能となるだけではなく，クラスター対策がより有効なレベルまでウイルス感染者が減少しうる点で，活動制限延長の損失を補って社会的には利得が大きいと考える．現行の戦略は，ウイルスが減少しきっていないうちに社会・経済活動を戻すため，最悪の場合には6月中に感染者が再増加し，再び行動制限や自粛をしなくてはいけなくなる可能性がある．7. 現行のシステムにおいても，ウイルス感染拡大を抑えるという立場だけからだけであれば，社会・経済活動を2ヶ月の活動期間と3ヶ月の活動制限期間を繰り返す形で，最大1日100人程度の(行政的意味での) 陽性者発生に抑え，周期的に持続していくことは可能であると思われる．（過去4ヶ月の内2月，3月を活動期間，4月，5月を活動制限期間として，仮にさらにもう一月，ウイルス感染鎮静化のため，6月までを活動制限期間としてみれば良い.) 　ただし，これでは経済的に持続可能とは限らないので，いろいろな工夫をして，3ヶ月の活動期間と1-2ヶ月の活動制限期間を繰り返す形にできるようにすることが，まずは，一つの現実的社会的目標として考えられる．8. 大規模な抗体検査，PCR検査, ＩＣＴの活用等，ウイルスの感染実態をつかむ継続的なサーベランスによる予測精度向上と社会全体での情報共有が重要である．9. なお，筆者は統計数理や数理工学の研究者ではあるが，感染症の数理モデルの専門家ではない．流行の態様と行く末を定量的に理解することを目的として，公開されているデータと素朴な数理モデルのみを利用して何ができるか，非力ながらも自分なりに真剣に考えてまとめたものが本小論である．モデルの帰結として若干の予測なども行っているが，これを読まれる方は，書かれている予測結果を鵜呑みにすることはせず，自身の責任で，検討材料の一つとしていただければ幸いである．モデルの検証に必要なことはすべて小論内に書かれている．なお，本小論の結果や考察はあくまで筆者個人の意見として発信されるものであり，筆者の所属大学の公式見解とは無関係である．https://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/tsuchiya_takashi

東アジアにおける域内為替レート管理と貿易の域内統合に関する論考

公共政策プログラム / Public Policy Program政策研究大学院大学 / National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies論文審査委員: Kaliappa Kalirajan, 大来 洋一, 大山 達雄, 福島 隆司, James R. Rhodes, バク･サンジュン（早稲田大学国際教養学部

インドネシア、アジア諸国、先進国における銀行預金および退職貯蓄に関する研究

政策分析プログラム / Policy Analysis Program政策研究大学院大学 / National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies論文審査委員: Wade D. Pfau（主査）, 大山 達雄, James R. Rhodes, Julen Esteban Pretel, 渡辺 和孝（慶應義塾大学