Species distribution models in climate change scenarios are still not useful for informing policy planning: an uncertainty assessment using fuzzy logic

We compared the effect of general circulation models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios on the uncertainty associated with models predicting changes in areas favourable to animal species. Given that mountain species are particularly at risk due to climate warming, we selected one amphibian (Baetic midwife toad), one reptile (Lataste's viper), one bird (Bonelli's eagle), and one mammal (Iberian wild goat) present in Spanish mountains to model their distributional response to climate change during this century. Climate forecasts for the whole century were provided by the Agencia Estatal de Meteorologiá (AEMET; National Meteorological Agency) of Spain, which adapted the general circulation models CGCM2 and ECHAM4 and produced expected temperature and precipitation values for Spain according to the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. We constructed separate models of the species response to spatial, topographic, human, and climate variables using current values of the corresponding variables. We predicted future areas favourable to the species by replacing the current climate values with those expected according to each climate change scenario, while keeping spatial, topographic and human variables constant. Fuzzy logic was used to compute the coincidence between predictions for different emission scenarios in the same global circulation model, and the consistency between predictions for the same emission scenario applying different general circulation models. In general, coincidences were higher than consistencies and, thus, discrepancies between predictions were more attributable to uncertainty in global circulation models, i.e. our insufficient knowledge concerning the effect of the oceans and atmosphere on climate, than to the putative effect of different emission scenarios on future climates. Our conclusion is that species distribution models in climate warming scenarios are still not useful for informing emission policy planning, although they have great potential as tools once consistencies become higher than coincidences.This work was partially financed by the Consejeria de Innovacion, Ciencia y Empresa, Junta de Andalucía,Spain (project P05-RNM-00935) and the Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia of Spain and FEDER (projects CGL2006-09567and CGL2009-11316). A. Estrada has a postdoctoral contract jointly financed by the European Social Fund and by the Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha (Spain), in the framework of the Operational Programme FSE 2007-2013.Peer Reviewe