Bayesian island biogeography in a continental setting: the Rand Flora case

We here explore the use of a Bayesian approach to island biogeography for disentangling the evolutionary origins of a continental-scale floristic pattern, the enigmatic ‘Rand Flora’. The existence of disjunct distributions across many plant lineages between Macaronesia–northwest Africa, Horn of Africa–southern Arabia and east–south Africa has long intrigued botanists, but only now can we start analysing it within a statistical framework