Comparing Strategies for Estimating Constituency Opinion from National Survey Samples

Political scientists interested in estimating how public opinion varies by constituency have developed several strategies for supplementing limited constituency survey data with additional sources of information. We present two evaluation studies in the previously unexamined context of British constituency-level opinion: an external validation study of party vote share in the 2010 general election and a cross-validation of opinion toward the European Union. We find that most of the gains over direct estimation come from the inclusion of constituency-level predictors, which are also the easiest source of additional information to incorporate. Individual-level predictors combined with post-stratification particularly improve estimates from unrepresentative samples, and geographic local smoothing can compensate for weak constituency-level predictors. We argue that these findings are likely to be representative of applications of these methods where the number of constituencies is large

Revisiting Local Campaign Effects: An Experiment Involving Literature Mail Drops in the 2007 Ontario Election

An invariant feature of constituency election campaigns is the literature mail drop, usually a one-page leaflet or card left at the door profiling the candidate and appealing for electoral support. In this article, we report on a field experiment designed to assess the effects of such mail drops. The experiment was conducted during the 2007 Ontario provincial election campaign in the constituency of Cambridge and entailed distributing literature for the Green party candidate in that constituency. After randomly assigning constituency polls to treatment and control groups, and delivering the Green candidate’s partisan literature only to the selected treatment group polls, we compared the candidate’s support levels in the treated polls with those in the control group. Our research detected a modest effect associated with the literature drop. The effect was largely limited to constituency neighbourhoods fitting at least part of the Green party’s traditional demographic, that is, those with higher than average socio-economic status

Constituency campaigning at the 2015 general election

The context of the 2015 general election suggested that the electoral impact of parties’ constituency campaigns could vary as a consequence in particular of the relative unpopularity of the Liberal Democrats. Using data from a survey of election agents, this paper analyses how the main GB level political parties adapted the intensity of their constituency level campaign’s to ensure that to varying degrees they produced positive electoral payoffs. It further analyses the electoral effects of face-to-face campaigning and e-campaigning at constituency level and shows that while e-campaigning has grown in importance, face-to-face campaigning continues to deliver stronger electoral benefits. Overall, the 2015 election illustrated that intense constituency level campaigning continues to be electorally beneficial for all the parties, but that this was the election when the Conservative Party became genuinely effective in terms of the delivery of electoral payoffs.This research was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (Grant No. ES/M007251/1

Comparing constituency and dependency representations for SMT phrase-extraction

We consider the value of replacing and/or combining string-based methods with syntax-based methods for phrase-based statistical machine translation (PBSMT), and we also consider the relative merits of using constituency-annotated vs. dependency-annotated training data. We automatically derive two subtree-aligned treebanks, dependency-based and constituency-based, from a parallel English–French corpus and extract syntactically motivated word- and phrase-pairs. We automatically measure PB-SMT quality. The results show that combining string-based and syntax-based word- and phrase-pairs can improve translation quality irrespective of the type of syntactic annotation. Furthermore, using dependency annotation yields greater translation quality than constituency annotation for PB-SMT

Legislature and Constituency Size in Italian Regions: Forecasting the Effects of a Reform

In this paper we analyze the effect of different legislature and constituency size on per capita regional expenditure in Italy. According to the theory, legislature size has an indefinite effect on government spending because logrolling and transaction costs may have canceling effects. In turn, smaller constituency size is predicted to decrease government spending, because of homogeneity of interests and low monitoring costs. We find a large and significantly positive effect of the number of legislators and a negative effect for constituency size. We use these findings to forecast the effects of the increase in the number of legislators that are occurring in some regionsLegislature size, constituency size, regional expenditure

DCU-Paris13 systems for the SANCL 2012 shared task

The DCU-Paris13 team submitted three systems to the SANCL 2012 shared task on parsing English web text. The first submission, the highest ranked constituency parsing system, uses a combination of PCFG-LA product grammar parsing and self-training. In the second submission, also a constituency parsing system, the n-best lists of various parsing models are combined using an approximate sentence-level product model. The third system, the highest ranked system in the dependency parsing track, uses voting over dependency arcs to combine the output of three constituency parsing systems which have been converted to dependency trees. All systems make use of a data-normalisation component, a parser accuracy predictor and a genre classifier

Applications of set covering theory to the partitioning of political electoral constituencies

The present work reviews recent computer techniques to the constituency boundary problem. A computer technique based on the set-covering theory is developed and it is shown how the computer results based on the choice of objective can help decision making as regards the optimal plan with respect to equitable apportionment. Data based on the Northern Counties of England was used for the European Assembly Constituency apportionment

Exit Polling in Canada: An Experiment

Although exit polling has not been used to study Canadian elections before, such polls have methodological features that make them a potentially useful complement to data collected through more conventional designs. This paper reports on an experiment with exit polling in one constituency in the 2003 Ontario provincial election. Using student volunteers, a research team at Wilfrid Laurier University conducted an exit poll in the bellwether constituency of Kitchener Centre to assess the feasibility of mounting this kind of study on a broader scale. The experiment was successful in a number of respects. It produced a sample of 653 voters that broadly reflected the partisan character of the constituency, and which can hence be used to shed light on patterns of vote-switching and voter motivations in that constituency. It also yielded insights about best practices in mounting an exit poll in the Ontario context, as well as about the potential for using wireless communication devices to transmit respondent data from the field. The researchers conclude that exit polling on a limited basis (selected constituencies) is feasible, but the costs and logistics associated with this methodology make a province-wide or country-wide study unsupportable at present

Congressional Representation of Black Interests: Recognizing the Importance of Stability

The relationship between black constituency size and congressional support for black interests has two important attributes: magnitude and stability. Although previous research has examined the first characteristic, scant attention has been directed at the second. This article examines the relationship between district racial composition and congressional voting patterns with a particular emphasis on the stability of support across different types of votes and different types of districts. We hypothesize that, among white Democrats, the influence of black constituency size will be less stable in the South, owing in part to this region’s more racially divided constituencies. Examining LCCR scores from the 101st through 103rd Congress, we find that this expectation is largely confirmed. We also find that, among Republicans, the impact of black constituency size is most stable—albeit negligible in size— in the South. We conclude by discussing the implications of these findings for the relative merits of “influence districts” and “majority minority” districts