159,108 research outputs found

    Uncertainty And Risk Analysis Of Macroeconomic Forecasts: Fan Charts Revisited

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    Since 1996 the Bank of England (BoE) has been publishing estimates of probability distribution of the future outcomes of inflation and output growth. These density forecasts, known as "fan charts", became very popular with other central banks (e.g. Riskbank) as a tool to quantify uncertainties and risks of conditional point forecasts. The BoE's procedure is mainly a methodology to determine the distribution of a linear combination of independent random variables. In this article we propose an alternative methodology that addresses two issues with the BoE procedure that may affect the estimation of the densities. The first issue relates to a statistical shortcut taken by the BoE that implicitly considers that the mode of the linear combination of random variables is the (same) linear combination of the modes of those variables. The second issue deals with the assumption of independence, which may be restrictive. An illustration of the new methodology is presented and its results compared with the BoE approach.

    Prediction of the relationship between body weight and body condition score in sheep

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    During the whole production cycle it is important to monitor the energy balance and to quantify body reserve changes of the ewes. This can be done, both in experimental settings and in the field, by estimating the body condition score (BCS) of the ewes and its variations. However, if this tool is used to balance the diets it is necessary to know the relationship between BCS and body weight (BW), which varies depending on the mature size of the breed and of the population considered within each breed. The relationship between BW and BCS has been studied only for some sheep breeds and populations. For this reason, this research aimed to develop a prediction model of this relationship in ewes for any breed or population


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    School Boards in the United States have existed for over 200 years. During this time, they have evolved into complex governing bodies that yield great fiscal power over school districts. Membership is comprised mostly of laypersons and requirements of membership continue to be minimal. While oversight and policy are key roles of Boards of Education, the relationship among School Board members, school superintendents, and various stakeholders is crucial to effective leadership and meeting district goals. Utilizing a qualitative research approach, this phenomenological study explored School Board members’ motives for membership, eligibility requirements, and the perceptions of School Board members’ influence on education policy. A survey was sent to 5,000 New York State Board of Education (NYS BOE) members and 5,006 community members. Respondents included 60 NYS BOE members and 191 community members. Data were collected from the survey and served to inform and guide focus group discussions and interview questions. Additionally, a reflexive journal was kept to add qualitative validity. All items were analyzed and coded by the researcher and subsequently, by outside, independent auditors. The triangulation of data sources was survey data, focus group information, and interview transcriptions. Data analysis resulted in eight themes as it related to the study of BOE members’ motivation for membership, eligibility requirements, and perceptions of influence on education policy. Research indicated that BOE members recognized there was a level of power and influence to service in terms of decision-making. However, BOE members were largely motivated to have a positive impact on children and give back to their community by making positive changes on programs and policies for future generations. These BOE members indicated that serving on the BOE is one of the purest forms of democracy in the United States. Respondents noted that BOE members are elected by their peers, are not affiliated with a political party, and membership criteria is minimal thus allowing a cross-representation of skills and backgrounds. Data analysis also indicated there was a misperception why BOE members serve. This was in contrast to what BOE members indicated as their motives of why they serve. The study participants indicated that while they believed BOE members served for altruistic intentions of making a positive impact on children and giving back to their community, the perception by both BOE and community members of why they serve was in a more self-regarding manner. The study found that there is frustration over the loss of local control with unfunded mandates by the federal government. Results further indicated that Boards of Education would be better served if their BOE were branded. Results suggested that BOE members use the school district’s mission or vision to brand themselves and then market this mission or vision to their community with consistent messages. Finally, data suggested there was a negative stigma to serving on the BOE that correlates to the misperception of why BOE members serve. Study participants indicated that transparency and communication were crucial in creating positive change for school districts

    Does Fed Funds Target Interest Rate Lead Bank of England’s Bank Rate and European Central Bank’s Key Interest Rate?

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    It has been a long debate whether Fed Funds target interest rate (FFTR) has significant explanatory power on interest rates in other countries. In this paper, we analyze the effects of FFTR on Bank of England (BOE) bank rate and European Central Bank (ECB) key interest rate employing-the rather new and trustworthy technique of-Bounds testing developed by Pesaran (2001). Our empirical results are consistent with a priori expectations as BOE and ECB interest rates are highly dependent on FFTR. This finding can be interpreted as a clear signal of how globally tight-knit the world currencies have been. Moreover, it emphasizes the importance of US dollar as the world currency and rather serves as an argument against alternative global currency propositions.Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Bounds Testing

    Systematic investigation of changes in oxidized cerebral cytochrome c oxidase concentration during frontal lobe activation in healthy adults

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    Using transcranial near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) to measure changes in the redox state of cerebral cytochrome c oxidase (Δ[oxCCO]) during functional activation in healthy adults is hampered by instrumentation and algorithm issues. This study reports the Δ[oxCCO] response measured in such a setting and investigates possible confounders of this measurement. Continuous frontal lobe NIRS measurements were collected from 11 healthy volunteers during a 6-minute anagram-solving task, using a hybrid optical spectrometer (pHOS) that combines multi-distance frequency and broadband components. Only data sets showing a hemodynamic response consistent with functional activation were interrogated for a Δ[oxCCO] response. Simultaneous systemic monitoring data were also available. Possible influences on the Δ[oxCCO] response were systematically investigated and there was no effect of: 1) wavelength range chosen for fitting the measured attenuation spectra; 2) constant or measured, with the pHOS in real-time, differential pathlength factor; 3) systemic hemodynamic changes during functional activation; 4) changes in optical scattering during functional activation. The Δ[oxCCO] response measured in the presence of functional activation was heterogeneous, with the majority of subjects showing significant increase in oxidation, but others having a decrease. We conclude that the heterogeneity in the Δ[oxCCO] response is physiological and not induced by confounding factors in the measurements. © 2012 Optical Society of America

    RegiĂł de MĂșrcia: resultats electorals des de 1983 fins a l'actualitat

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    L'Estatut d'Autonomia de MĂșrcia Ă©s la Llei OrgĂ nica 4/1982, de 9 de juny publicada al BOE nĂșm. 146 de 19 de juny de 1982. La primera modificaciĂł estatutĂ ria fou l'any 1991 i es va publicar al BOE com a Llei OrgĂ nica dia 14 de març de 1993. La segona modificaciĂł estatutĂ ria apareix a la Llei OrgĂ nica 4/1994, de 24 de març, publicada al BOE nĂșm. 72, de 25 de març de 1994. L'Ășltima modificaciĂł Ă©s la Llei OrgĂ nica 1/1998, de 15 de juny de 1998 publicada al BOE nĂșm. 143, de 16 de juny de 1998

    Methanol immersion reduces spherical aberration of water dipping lenses at long wavelengths used in multi-photon laser scanning microscopy

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    Dipping objectives were tested for multi-photon laser scanning microscopy, since their large working distances are advantageous for thick specimens and the absence of a coverslip facilitates examination of living material. Images of fluorescent bead specimens, particularly at wavelengths greater than 850 nm showed defects consistent with spherical aberration. Substituting methanol for water as the immersion medium surrounding the beads corrected these defects and produced an increase in fluorescence signal intensity. The same immersion method was applied to two representative biological samples of fixed tissue: mouse brain labeled with FITC for tubulin and mouse gut in which the Peyer’s patches were labeled with Texas Red bilosomes. Tissue morphology was well preserved by methanol immersion of both tissues; the two-photon-excited fluorescence signal was six times higher than in water and the depth of penetration of useful imaging was doubled. No modification of the microscope was needed except the provision of a ring to retain a sufficient depth of methanol for imaging

    Haywood, Boe

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