World markets for conventional and advanced biofuels over the next five years

Production of transport biofuels grew by just 2% in 2017. To achieve the 2030 SDS target, use of biofuels needs to triple, driven by cost reductions of advanced biofuels, widespread sustainability governance and more adoption in aviation and marine transport. This presentation provides an overview of the market prospects for conventional biofuels over the next five years. It would analyse the current status of deployment and costs for novel advanced biofuels. It would also draw comparisons with electric cars, the extent of their renewable electricity utilisation and decarbonisation potential. It would include the contribution of renewables to road transport demand over the next 5 years and focus on the main biofuels available to decarbonise road freight, now and in the long term. Finally, it will present a case study from India, focusing on ethanol-based chemicals

Cellulosic Biofuels

Cellulosic biofuels are not as far off as often assumed. EESI's investigation of this issue found some pilot scale cellulosic biofuel production facilities already online and many more demonstration and commercial scale biorefineries under construction or on the drawing board. In fact, 55 cellulosic biorefineries are complete, under construction or in the planning stage in a total of 31 states across the country, adding up to an expected nameplate capacity of 629.5 million gallons per year (MGY) and a potential expansion to 995 MGY. Most of the demonstration and commercial scale facilities are scheduled to start operation in 2009 or 2010

Modeling the Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts of Biofuels

This paper provides a general overview of the social, environmental, and economical issues related to biofuels and a review of economic modeling of biofuels. The increasing importance of biofuels is driven primarily by government policies since currently available biofuels are generally not economically viable in the absence of fiscal incentives or high oil prices. Also the environmental impacts of biofuels as an alternative to fossil fuels are quite ambiguous. The literature review of the most recent economic models dealing with biofuels and their economic impacts provides a distinction between structural and reduced form models. The discussion of structural models centers primarily on computable general equilibrium models. The review of reduced models is structured toward the time series analysis approach to the dependencies between prices of biofuels, prices of agricultural commodities used for the biofuel production and prices of the fossil fuels.Biofuels; Ethanol; Biodiesel; Prices; Time-series

Developing Energy Plants for Biofuels Production may Comply to Organic Principles

Biofuels are the only source of renewable environmentally friendly fuel currently suitable for road transport without any negative traits associated with traditional biodiesel or other green energy alternatives. The combustion of petrol and diesel produces many different types of local air pollutants, but the use of biofuels may result in the reductions in emissions of greenhouse gas carbon dioxide up to 70%. Impacts on land use require careful planning to maximise the gains and minimise the losses. The role of biofuels in organic farming will solve three significant problems: 1) waste will become valuable resources; 2) low quality forage products can be utilized for biofuels and thus get value-added; and 3) the trafficable damage on soil fertilities will be reduced by the minimized recirculation rate of bulky watery waste products

Biodiesel: Freedom from Dependence on Fossil Fuels?

In view of the depleting oil reserves and exponential rise in petroleum prices, the search for alternative sources of fuel is very timely and important. The present paper addresses the underlying issues in biodiesel production from biomaterials and sustainable production and supply of first-generation biofuels, especially the one from jatropha. The agencies and research institutions involved in the production of biofuels and the national and international efforts made in this regard are discussed here. There is also a dire need of a step towards large-scale production and supply of second-generation biofuels, although in infant stage, to strengthen the world economy in general and Indian economy in particular. However, the production of biofuels are likely to have serious socio-economic implications especially to the lesser developed societies. This needs serious attention from policy makers and public at large

A DYNAMIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF U.S. BIOFUELS PRODUCTION

With the rising global interest in energy security and climate change mitigation, biofuels have gained the prominent attention of researchers and policy makers. The U.S. has emerged as the leading producer of biofuels and is aiming for achieving a target of 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels by 2022 under its updated renewable fuels standard (RFS2) policy. In this paper, we study the longer-term global implications of large-scale renewable fuels production in the U.S. We utilize the GTAP v7.1 data base and introduce a detailed breakdown of agricultural crops, first and second generation biofuels and by-products. We update this fully disaggregated data base to reflect the 2010 global economy, based on secondary data for the sectors and regions included. We adapt the Applied Dynamic Analysis of Global Economy (ADAGE) model developed by Ross (2009) into a recursive dynamic framework and introduce agriculture, biofuels, and land use linkages. We construct a dynamic baseline from 2010 through 2050 in five-year time steps. The dynamics in the model comes from growth in GDP, population, capital accumulation, labor productivity, growth in natural resource stocks, and technological changes in the energy intensive and agricultural sectors. We implement a representative RFS2 policy scenario in the U.S for 2025, using two alternative approaches: (i) RFS permits approach – which assumes biofuels and petroleum fuels are perfect substitutes after adjusting for energy content, and (ii) Target share of biofuels in transportation fuels approach – which treats biofuels and petroleum fuels as imperfect substitutes. Both approaches offer insights regarding potential policy impacts, particularly on the international market and indirect land use change. Because the share approach keeps the biofuels share fixed in the regions outside the U.S., it does not result in dramatic changes in the rest of the world. In the permits approach, however, the regions without a specific policy requiring a given level of biofuels tend to reduce biofuels consumption. This is a result of the reduction in relative price of petroleum products as U.S. policy increases demand for biofuels and reduces global demand for petroleum, making renewable fuels less cost-competitive in the rest of the world.ADAGE, Biofuels, Computable General Equilibrium, Recursive Dynamic, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Unintended Environmental Consequences of a Global Biofuels Program

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).Biofuels are being promoted as an important part of the global energy mix to meet the climate change challenge. The environmental costs of biofuels produced with current technologies at small scales have been studied, but little research has been done on the consequences of an aggressive global biofuels program with advanced technologies using cellulosic feedstocks. Here, with simulation modeling, we explore two scenarios for cellulosic biofuels production and find that both could contribute substantially to future global-scale energy needs, but with significant unintended environmental consequences. As the land supply is squeezed to make way for vast areas of biofuels crops, the global landscape is defined by either the clearing of large swathes of natural forest, or the intensification of agricultural operations worldwide. The greenhouse gas implications of land-use conversion differ substantially between the two scenarios, but in both, numerous biodiversity hotspots suffer from serious habitat loss. Cellulosic biofuels may yet serve as a crucial wedge in the solution to the climate change problem, but must be deployed with caution so as not to jeopardize biodiversity, compromise ecosystems services, or undermine climate policy.This study received funding from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is supported by a onsortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors

Recent developments and prospects for the production of biofuels in the EU: Can they really be "Part of Solution"?

The European Union has launched an ambitious policy aiming at increasing the use of biofuels in land transport “with a view to contributing to objectives such as meeting climate change commitments, environmentally friendly security of supply and promoting renewable energy sources”. Another motivation, at least for some member states, is that the development of biofuels is expected to provide larger outlets for domestic farm products and new employment opportunities in rural areas and make future adjustments of the Common agricultural policy easier. The EU policy of support to energy crops, tax exemption for biofuels and mandatory incorporation targets in some member states, has resulted in a significant increase in the demand and supply of biofuels. The market share of biofuels remains modest (1 % in 2005 in the EU-25) but has increased dramatically over the last few months. The paper provides an analysis of recent developments and prospects for the production and utilization of biofuels in the EU. Its presents the potential benefits of biofuels in the EU as well as their possible drawbacks. In particular, it addresses the three related issues of energy efficiency, environmental benefits and cost competitiveness of EU biofuels.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,