42 research outputs found

    Economic Stability and the Central Bank: Rule or Discretion

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    The history of monetary policy in Iran, judging by their performance in keeping the value of the currency, maintaining a steady growth in the Gross Domestic Product, faltering investment, show that monetary policy has not been a portrait of consistent successes, to say the least. It has been employed in an on-again-off-again manner rather than as a tool for proactive decision making. In this paper the author shows the simulation results for the GDP growth under a regime of fixed monetary rule under different assumptions Comparing the historical changes in the monetary base with a policy rule would highlight the benefits of a response rule. One could see wider fluctuations in the monetary base compare to what was warranted according to the response function. They also show that in most of the cases, monetary base moved the opposite of what should have been done according to the response function. That is, in most years, they reduced the money supply when they should have increased it and increased the money supply when they should have decreased it. At times, it seems that they made a wrong monetary policy and the next year, found their mistake and over compensated for the mistake by overshooting or undershooting.Monetary rules v. discretion; Monetary policy, Response function, GDP growth and monetary stability

    Saving, Investment and Growth: A Causality Test

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    All agree to the answer, i.e., they agree that accumulation of capital was, is, and will remain the most significant problem of the third world (the south) countries. The third world countries cannot accumulate capital because of low-income levels, which in turn, leads to low saving and investments. But low saving and hence low investments are responsible for low income. A catch 22 problem for the third world countries that is badly in need of solutions. This paper shows that we could conclude a one-way Granger causalities running from savings to investment, and from disposable income to investment. This is true with one or more lagged values as independent variable. This means, we need undertake policies that foster savings to spur investment, and as a result, capital accumulation.Granger causalities, Iranian saving and investment and economic growth

    An Analysis of Structural Economic Change in Iran

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    در سال گذشته مجلس شورای اسلامی با موافقت شورای نگهبان و ریاست جمهوری قانونی برای حذف یارانه ها به کالاهای مصرفی (بنزین ، گازوئيل، گاز، برق، آب، آرد، برنج، شير، شکر، روغن خوراکی، حمل و نقل هوائی و زمينی، و پست) تصویب و امسال به اجرا گذاشت. در این نوشته سعی خواهم کرد که منافع و معایب و پی آمدهای احتمالی آن را نشان دهم. در این نوشته سعی خواهم کرد که از بحث ليبرالی و نئو ليبرالی و چگونگی خصوصی سازی بر مبنای اصل ۴۴ قانون اساسی خودداری کنم و بحث امروز ما تحليلی است بر حذف یارانه های مستقيم به کالا های پایه ای و جایگزین کردن آن ها با یارانه های نقدی به شهروندان که برای جبران تورم پيش بينی شده است.Iran, Subsidies, Iranian Economy, Inflationary expectation

    يک نظريه برقانون تعديل ساختاری اقتصادی ايران

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    در سال گذشته مجلس شورای اسلامی با موافقت شورای نگهبان و ریاست جمهوری قانونی برای حذف یارانه ها به کالاهای مصرفی (بنزین ، گازوئيل، گاز، برق، آب، آرد، برنج، شير، شکر، روغن خوراکی، حمل و نقل هوائی و زمينی، و پست) تصویب و امسال به اجرا گذاشت. در این نوشته سعی خواهم کرد که منافع و معایب و پی آمدهای احتمالی آن را نشان دهم. در این نوشته سعی خواهم کرد که از بحث ليبرالی و نئو ليبرالی و چگونگی خصوصی سازی بر مبنای اصل ۴۴ قانون اساسی خودداری کنم و بحث امروز ما تحليلی است بر حذف یارانه های مستقيم به کالا های پایه ای و جایگزین کردن آن ها با یارانه های نقدی به شهروندان که برای جبران تورم پيش بينی شده است

    An Estimate of Iran’s Underground Economy: A Monetary Approach.

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    It is important to note that in rationalizing the low GDP, there are those who believe that the officially reported GDP is only a part of the total actual real GDP. That is, some believe that a large part of Iranian economy is not reported. Therefore, there is a great deal of underground (unreported) economic activities in Iran that are not included in the reported data. Even though one cannot deny the existence of this unofficial underground economy, it cannot be shown that they are not included in the official data reported by the Central Bank of Iran. Therefore, we can safely assume that, by all approximations, the official data to be a good representative of actual real Iranian economy and the proposition of much larger economy due to the existence of a large underground economy beyond and in addition to the officially published data is, more or less, an exaggeration

    Economic Stability and the Central Bank: Rule or Discretion

    Get PDF
    The history of monetary policy in Iran, judging by their performance in keeping the value of the currency, maintaining a steady growth in the Gross Domestic Product, faltering investment, show that monetary policy has not been a portrait of consistent successes, to say the least. It has been employed in an on-again-off-again manner rather than as a tool for proactive decision making. In this paper the author shows the simulation results for the GDP growth under a regime of fixed monetary rule under different assumptions Comparing the historical changes in the monetary base with a policy rule would highlight the benefits of a response rule. One could see wider fluctuations in the monetary base compare to what was warranted according to the response function. They also show that in most of the cases, monetary base moved the opposite of what should have been done according to the response function. That is, in most years, they reduced the money supply when they should have increased it and increased the money supply when they should have decreased it. At times, it seems that they made a wrong monetary policy and the next year, found their mistake and over compensated for the mistake by overshooting or undershooting

    يک نظريه برقانون تعديل ساختاری اقتصادی ايران

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    در سال گذشته مجلس شورای اسلامی با موافقت شورای نگهبان و ریاست جمهوری قانونی برای حذف یارانه ها به کالاهای مصرفی (بنزین ، گازوئيل، گاز، برق، آب، آرد، برنج، شير، شکر، روغن خوراکی، حمل و نقل هوائی و زمينی، و پست) تصویب و امسال به اجرا گذاشت. در این نوشته سعی خواهم کرد که منافع و معایب و پی آمدهای احتمالی آن را نشان دهم. در این نوشته سعی خواهم کرد که از بحث ليبرالی و نئو ليبرالی و چگونگی خصوصی سازی بر مبنای اصل ۴۴ قانون اساسی خودداری کنم و بحث امروز ما تحليلی است بر حذف یارانه های مستقيم به کالا های پایه ای و جایگزین کردن آن ها با یارانه های نقدی به شهروندان که برای جبران تورم پيش بينی شده است

    Iran: Past, Present and the Future

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    Iran's unimpressive economic performance came about as a result of the Iran-Iraq War and the inevitable collapse of oil prices, both of which were beyond the government’s control, in combination with economic sanctions and many self-inflicted and self-destructive policies. Foremost among the self-inflicted and self-destructive wounds is the insecurity of individual citizens, human rights violations; the faltering private investment, is lack of uniformity in the application of the laws of the land and uncertainty due to political instability, corruption, and low exports and imports (total trade) relative to the world total trade

    Iran: Past, Present and the Future

    Get PDF
    Iran's unimpressive economic performance came about as a result of the Iran-Iraq War and the inevitable collapse of oil prices, both of which were beyond the government’s control, in combination with economic sanctions and many self-inflicted and self-destructive policies. Foremost among the self-inflicted and self-destructive wounds is the insecurity of individual citizens, human rights violations; the faltering private investment, is lack of uniformity in the application of the laws of the land and uncertainty due to political instability, corruption, and low exports and imports (total trade) relative to the world total trade

    Economic Stability and the Central Bank: Rule or Discretion

    Get PDF
    The history of monetary policy in Iran, judging by their performance in keeping the value of the currency, maintaining a steady growth in the Gross Domestic Product, faltering investment, show that monetary policy has not been a portrait of consistent successes, to say the least. It has been employed in an on-again-off-again manner rather than as a tool for proactive decision making. In this paper the author shows the simulation results for the GDP growth under a regime of fixed monetary rule under different assumptions Comparing the historical changes in the monetary base with a policy rule would highlight the benefits of a response rule. One could see wider fluctuations in the monetary base compare to what was warranted according to the response function. They also show that in most of the cases, monetary base moved the opposite of what should have been done according to the response function. That is, in most years, they reduced the money supply when they should have increased it and increased the money supply when they should have decreased it. At times, it seems that they made a wrong monetary policy and the next year, found their mistake and over compensated for the mistake by overshooting or undershooting
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