8 research outputs found

    Статистический анализ влияния загрязнения среды обитания на заболеваемость населения в Республике Марий Эл

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    The article considers an econometric approach to the analysis of relation between the population morbidity rate depending on ecology and the environmental pollution index. Panel data are used in this approach.The purpose is to find quantitative relations between the state of the environment and public health under the differentiated man-caused load threatening public health in the Republic of Mari El. Materials and methods. The research methods are based on the approaches to correlation and regression analysis of the panel data. In order to identify the environmental pollution index statistically related to the morbidity rate, Pearson and Spearman's correlation coefficients were calculated. Then the regression models for the panel data were developed: a fixed-effect model and a random-effect model. The sources of the panel data are the following: Regional Statistics Office in the Mari El Republic (Maristat), Office of the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing in the Mari El Republic (Rospotrebnadzor) and Ministry of Healthcare of the Mari El Republic. The data include six air and water pollution indexes and seven priority indicators of the population morbidity rate in 15 municipal districts of the Mari El Republic in the period of 2009–2017.Results. The analysis of the Pearson and Spearman's correlation coefficients helped to identify environmental pollution indexes closely related to the population morbidity rate. These indicators were used as input data of the panel regression model. Three statistically significant panel regression models were identified. They describe the impact of pollution of drinking water from the distributed network on bronchial asthma morbidity among 0–14-aged children diagnosed for the first time in their life; and the impact of emission into the atmosphere of pollutants from the point emission sources on gastritis and duodenitis morbidity among 15–17 aged teenagers diagnosed for the first time in their life.Conclusion. The identified models have biological plausibility. The ethiopathogenetic analysis confirms the possibility of existence of the identified relations. The statistically significant relations between environmental pollution and public health do not prove existence of cause-and-effect links between them. It is statistical demonstration of the hypothesis of their possible existence. This demonstration is an essential work stage to make the hypothesis a hard fact. In the future, it is proposed to use additional, more objective and integral evaluation of environmental quality, for example, the fluctuating asymmetry of bilateral features of biological objects.В статье предложен эконометрической подход к анализу связи показателей экологически зависимой заболеваемости населения и показателей загрязнения среды обитания, отличающийся использованием панельных данных.Цель. Установить количественные связи между состоянием среды обитания и здоровьем населения в условиях дифференцированных антропогенных нагрузок, при которых существует значимый риск здоровью населения в Республике Марий Эл.Материалы и методы. Методология исследования основана на подходах к корреляционно-регрессионному анализу панельных данных. Для выявления показателей загрязнения среды обитания, статистически связанных с показателями экологически зависимой заболеваемости, рассчитываются коэффициенты корреляции Пирсона и ранговые коэффициенты корреляции Спирмена. Затем строятся модели регрессии для панельных данных: модель с фиксированными эффектами и модель со случайными эффектами. Источники панельных данных: Маристат, Управление Роспотребнадзора по Республике Марий Эл и Министерство здравоохранения Республики Марий Эл. В исходный набор вошли 6 показателей загрязнения воды и атмосферы и 7 приоритетных показателей заболеваемости населения в разрезе 15 муниципальных образований Республики Марий Эл за период с 2009 по 2017 гг.Результаты. Анализ матриц коэффициентов Пирсона и Спирмена позволил выявить показатели загрязнения среды обитания, наиболее тесно связанные с показателями заболеваемости населения. Указанные показатели вошли в исходные спецификации моделей панельной регрессии. Получено три статистически значимых модели панельной регрессии, описывающих влияние загрязнения питьевой воды из распределительной сети на заболеваемость бронхиальной астмой детей 0-14 лет с диагнозом, установленным впервые в жизни, и выбросов в атмосферу загрязняющих веществ, отходящих от стационарных источников загрязнения на заболеваемость гастритом и дуоденитом подростков 15–17 лет с диагнозом, установленным впервые в жизни.Заключение. Полученные модели обладают биологическим правдоподобием. Этиопатогенетический анализ подтверждает возможность существования выявленных связей. Найденные статистически значимые связи между загрязнениями среды обитания и здоровьем населения – это не доказательство наличия причинно-следственной связи между ними, а лишь статистическое подтверждение гипотезы о возможном ее наличии. Это подтверждение является необходимым этапом работы для перевода гипотезы в разряд твердо установленных фактов. В дальнейшем предлагается использовать дополнительные, более объективные и полные интегральные оценки качества окружающей среды, например, флуктуирующую асимметрию билатеральных признаков биологических объектов

    Изменение частоты самоубийств под влиянием повседневной деятельности в странах Европейского союза

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    The article examines the impact of daily activities on the suicide rate on the basis of data from the European Detailed Mortality Database of the World Health Organization and the Harmonized European Time Use Survey.Purpose. To evaluate the relation between the suicide rate and duration of the main daily activities of employees in the spheres of work, household and leisure activities in terms of the multifactor models. Materials and methods. Daily activities are understood as time spent on work, household and leisure activities. In order to analyze the relation between the variables an end-to-end linear regression model arranged by all years and countries is used; the panel data structures are not taken into account in the model (as we have to deal with pseudo panel data). In addition, in order to weaken prerequisites of parametric models, a non-parametric estimate is used. The calculations are made in the econometric package STATA IC 16. The source of the data on the suicide rate (total, men, women) at the ages of 15-74 is the European Detailed Mortality Database of the World Health Organization; the source of the data on time spent on the main daily activities of employees in the spheres of work, household and leisure activities and the level of employees’ occupation is Eurostat.Results. The analysis revealed that with the increase in time spent on TV and video the suicide rate increases for the employed men; and with the increase in time spent on housekeeping the suicide rate increases for the employed women. In addition, during working days employed men are expected to be at risk of suicide due to the time spent on work, related activities and travel to and from work; employed women remain at risk due to the time spent on housekeeping. The duration of TV and video watching and housekeeping is a referent of suicide risk factors – loneliness and retreat from the society. It has been established that a possible shift to a four-day working week with an increase in the working hours while maintaining weekly hours leads to the suicide rate increase. Conclusion. In order to reduce the suicide rate in European countries, it is necessary to have such an organization of labour, daily routine and leisure activities, which will allow male employees to reduce their working hours to a minimum of 7.4 hours and to displace watching TV and video on the periphery of the hierarchy of occupations, primarily on weekends, as well as to eradicate "kitchen slavery" among female employees. While evaluating the possible shift to a four-day working week, it is necessary to conduct more research on the impact of the number (ratio) of working days and full days off on the suicide rate.В статье на основе данных Европейской базы детализированных данных о смертности Всемирной организации здравоохранения и Гармонизированного европейского обследования использования времени исследуется влияние повседневной деятельности на частоту самоубийств.Цель. В рамках многофакторных моделей оценить связь частоты самоубийств и продолжительности основных видов повседневной деятельности, работающих по найму в сферах труда, быта и досуга.Материалы и методы. Повседневная деятельность операционализируется как затраты времени на занятия в сферах труда, быта и досуга. Для анализа связи переменных используется сквозная модель линейной регрессии по всем годам и странам, не учитывающая панельной структуры данных (поскольку мы имеем дело с псевдопанельными данными). Для ослабления предпосылок параметрических моделей, дополнительно используется непараметрическая оценка. Расчеты осуществляются в эконометрическом пакете STATA IC 16. Источник данных о частоте самоубийств среди населения (всего, мужчины, женщины) в возрасте 15–74 лет – Европейская база детализированных данных о смертности (DMDB) ВОЗ; о затратах времени на основные виды повседневной деятельности работающих по найму в сферах труда, быта и досуга и степени включенности в занятия работающих по найму – Евростат.Результаты. Выявлена тенденция роста частоты самоубийств при увеличении затрат времени на просмотр телевизора и видео для работающего по найму населения, мужчин; при увеличении затрат времени на ведение домашнего хозяйства – для работающих по найму женщин. Вместе с тем в рабочие дни для работающего населения, мужчин фактором риска самоубийства ожидаемо выступают затраты времени на работу, связанные с ней активности и проезд; для работающих женщин – по-прежнему затраты времени на ведение домашнего хозяйства. Продолжительность просмотра телевизора и видео, ведения домашнего хозяйства – референты факторов риска самоубийства – одиночества и сокращения присутствия в социуме. Установлено, что возможный переход на «четырехдневку» с увеличением продолжительности рабочего дня при сохранении продолжительности рабочей недели приводит к увеличению частоты самоубийств.Заключение. Для снижения частоты самоубийств в европейских странах необходима такая организация труда, быта и досуга, которая позволит у работающих по найму мужчин сократить рабочий день минимум до 7,4 часов и вытеснить просмотр телевизора и видео на периферию иерархии занятий, прежде всего, в выходные дни, а также искоренить «кухонное рабство» – у работающих по найму женщин. При оценке возможного перехода на «четырехдневку» необходимы дополнительные исследования влияния количества (соотношения) рабочих и целодневных дней отдыха на частоту самоубийств

    Statistical Analysis of Environmental Pollution Impact on Population Morbidity in the Republic of Mari El

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    The article considers an econometric approach to the analysis of relation between the population morbidity rate depending on ecology and the environmental pollution index. Panel data are used in this approach.The purpose is to find quantitative relations between the state of the environment and public health under the differentiated man-caused load threatening public health in the Republic of Mari El. Materials and methods. The research methods are based on the approaches to correlation and regression analysis of the panel data. In order to identify the environmental pollution index statistically related to the morbidity rate, Pearson and Spearman's correlation coefficients were calculated. Then the regression models for the panel data were developed: a fixed-effect model and a random-effect model. The sources of the panel data are the following: Regional Statistics Office in the Mari El Republic (Maristat), Office of the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing in the Mari El Republic (Rospotrebnadzor) and Ministry of Healthcare of the Mari El Republic. The data include six air and water pollution indexes and seven priority indicators of the population morbidity rate in 15 municipal districts of the Mari El Republic in the period of 2009–2017.Results. The analysis of the Pearson and Spearman's correlation coefficients helped to identify environmental pollution indexes closely related to the population morbidity rate. These indicators were used as input data of the panel regression model. Three statistically significant panel regression models were identified. They describe the impact of pollution of drinking water from the distributed network on bronchial asthma morbidity among 0–14-aged children diagnosed for the first time in their life; and the impact of emission into the atmosphere of pollutants from the point emission sources on gastritis and duodenitis morbidity among 15–17 aged teenagers diagnosed for the first time in their life.Conclusion. The identified models have biological plausibility. The ethiopathogenetic analysis confirms the possibility of existence of the identified relations. The statistically significant relations between environmental pollution and public health do not prove existence of cause-and-effect links between them. It is statistical demonstration of the hypothesis of their possible existence. This demonstration is an essential work stage to make the hypothesis a hard fact. In the future, it is proposed to use additional, more objective and integral evaluation of environmental quality, for example, the fluctuating asymmetry of bilateral features of biological objects

    Correlation structure of bilateral traits

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    Changes in the Suicide Rate under the Influence of Daily Activities in EU Countries

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    The article examines the impact of daily activities on the suicide rate on the basis of data from the European Detailed Mortality Database of the World Health Organization and the Harmonized European Time Use Survey.Purpose. To evaluate the relation between the suicide rate and duration of the main daily activities of employees in the spheres of work, household and leisure activities in terms of the multifactor models. Materials and methods. Daily activities are understood as time spent on work, household and leisure activities. In order to analyze the relation between the variables an end-to-end linear regression model arranged by all years and countries is used; the panel data structures are not taken into account in the model (as we have to deal with pseudo panel data). In addition, in order to weaken prerequisites of parametric models, a non-parametric estimate is used. The calculations are made in the econometric package STATA IC 16. The source of the data on the suicide rate (total, men, women) at the ages of 15-74 is the European Detailed Mortality Database of the World Health Organization; the source of the data on time spent on the main daily activities of employees in the spheres of work, household and leisure activities and the level of employees’ occupation is Eurostat.Results. The analysis revealed that with the increase in time spent on TV and video the suicide rate increases for the employed men; and with the increase in time spent on housekeeping the suicide rate increases for the employed women. In addition, during working days employed men are expected to be at risk of suicide due to the time spent on work, related activities and travel to and from work; employed women remain at risk due to the time spent on housekeeping. The duration of TV and video watching and housekeeping is a referent of suicide risk factors – loneliness and retreat from the society. It has been established that a possible shift to a four-day working week with an increase in the working hours while maintaining weekly hours leads to the suicide rate increase. Conclusion. In order to reduce the suicide rate in European countries, it is necessary to have such an organization of labour, daily routine and leisure activities, which will allow male employees to reduce their working hours to a minimum of 7.4 hours and to displace watching TV and video on the periphery of the hierarchy of occupations, primarily on weekends, as well as to eradicate "kitchen slavery" among female employees. While evaluating the possible shift to a four-day working week, it is necessary to conduct more research on the impact of the number (ratio) of working days and full days off on the suicide rate

    Aboveground phytomass and rate of plant debris decomposition in herbaceous communities exposed to soil pollution with heavy metals

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    Consideration is given to production and decomposition processes in herbaceous communities exposed to chemical pollution with heavy metals in the Middle Urals. High variation in the aboveground phytomass of agrobotanical groups (legumes, forbs, grasses) is due to spatial heterogeneity of soil pollution levels and consequent changes in the species composition of plant communities in the areas studied. Therefore, nonparametric statistical methods have been used (Kruskal–Wallis test with subsequent pairwise comparisons by Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney with Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons). The phytomass of legumes remains unchanged in the increasing pollution gradient, while the contribution of forbs to the total phytomass decreases and that of grasses increases. Soils rich in nutrient elements can maintain a high rate of plant debris decomposition, counterbalancing the adverse effect of increased heavy metal concentrations on relevant processes. The balance between production and mineralization processes provides for the sustainable, long-term existence of herbaceous communities under conditions of intense pollution of the natural environment. © 2016, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd

    Genetic structure, morphological variation, and gametogenic peculiarities in water frogs (Pelophylax) from northeastern European Russia

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    The edible frog, Pelophylax esculentus, is a hybrid form that reproduces via clonal propagation of only one of the parental genomes through generations of hybrids while the genome of other parental species is eliminated during gametogenesis. Such reproductive ability requires hybrids to coexist with one of the parental species or rarely both parental species causing the formation of so-called population systems. Population systems and reproductive biology of water frogs from the east of the range remained partially unexplored. In this study, we investigated the distributions, population systems, genetic structure, types of gametes, and morphological variability of water frogs of the genus Pelophylax from the northeastern parts of their ranges (Mari El Republic and adjacent territories, Russia). We examined 1,337 individuals from 68 localities using morphological traits combined with DNA flow cytometry and a multilocus approach (fragments of a nuclear and two mitochondrial genes). We revealed five types of population systems: “pure” populations of the parental P. ridibundus (R) and P. lessonae (L), mixed populations of parental species (R-L) along and with their hybrids (R-E-L), as well as mixed populations of P. lessonae and P. esculentus (L-E). However, the “pure” hybrid (E) and the mixed P. ridibundus and P. esculentus (R-E) population systems were not found. All hybrids studied by DNA flow cytometry were diploid. Analysis of gametogenesis showed that the majority of hybrid males, as well as hybrid females from the L-E system, produced gametes with the P. ridibundus genome. However, in the R-E-L system, hybrid females were usually sterile. The reproduction of hybrids in such systems is primarily based on crosses of P. esculentus males with P. lessonae females. Molecular analysis showed the presence of mitochondrial and nuclear DN
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