Jury Theorems

We give a review and critique of jury theorems from a social-epistemology perspective, covering Condorcet’s (1785) classic theorem and several later refinements and departures. We assess the plausibility of the conclusions and premises featuring in jury theorems and evaluate the potential of such theorems to serve as formal arguments for the ‘wisdom of crowds’. In particular, we argue (i) that there is a fundamental tension between voters’ independence and voters’ competence, hence between the two premises of most jury theorems; (ii) that the (asymptotic) conclusion that ‘huge groups are infallible’, reached by many jury theorems, is an artifact of unjustified premises; and (iii) that the (nonasymptotic) conclusion that ‘larger groups are more reliable’, also reached by many jury theorems, is not an artifact and should be regarded as the more adequate formal rendition of the ‘wisdom of crowds’

Why populists do well on social media

A link between populism and social media is often suspected. This paper spells out a set of possible mechanisms underpinning this link: that social media changes the communication structure of the public sphere, making it harder for citizens to obtain evidence that refutes populist assumptions. By developing a model of the public sphere, four core functions of the public sphere are identified: exposing citizens to diverse information, promoting equality of deliberative opportunity, creating deliberative transparency, and producing common knowledge. A well-working public sphere allows citizens to learn that there are genuine disagreements among citizens that are held in good faith. Social media makes it harder to gain this insight, opening the door for populist ideology

Good reasons for losers: lottery justification and social risk

Many goods are distributed by processes that involve randomness. In lotteries, randomness is used to promote fairness. When taking social risks, randomness is a feature of the process. The losers of such decisions ought to be given a reason why they should accept the outcome. Surprisingly, good reasons demand more than merely equal ex ante chances. What is also required is a true statement of the form: ‘the result could easily have gone the other way and you could have been the winner’. This rules in standard lotteries but rules out many lotteries based on merely epistemic probability

Personenbezogene Daten privatwirtschaftlich nachhaltig nutzen. Regulatorische und technische Zukunftskonzepte

Zunehmende wirtschaftliche Vernetzung und Lobbyismus fordern die Sicherstellung von informierter Zustimmung, Transparenz und Verantwortlichkeit in der privatwirtschaftlichen Verwendung personenbezogener Daten heraus. Unser neues Modell verbindet durch das Zusammenspiel regulatorischer und technischer Datenschutzkonzepte mehr Sicherheit und Selbstbestimmung mit verstärkten Innovationsmöglichkeiten

CONCEPTUALIZING CONTEXT FOR ADAPTIVE PERVASIVE COMMERCE

In retail, demographics are currently regarded as the most convenient base for successful personalized marketing. However, signs point to the dormant power of context recognition. While technologies that can sense the environment are advanced, questions such as what to sense and how to adapt context are largely unanswered. In this paper, we analyze the purchase context of a retail outlet and suggest a context model for adaptive pervasive commerce. Furthermore, we introduce one approach how to conceptualize context that may be applied to conceptualize context for adaptive pervasive advertising applications so that they really deliver on their potential: showing the right message to the right recipient at the right time