240 research outputs found

    Swing Pricing: Theory and Evidence

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    10.2139/ssrn.4309220SSRN Electronic Journa

    New News is Bad News

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    An increase in the novelty of news predicts negative stock market returns and negative macroeconomic outcomes over the next year. We quantify news novelty - changes in the distribution of news text - through an entropy measure, calculated using a recurrent neural network applied to a large news corpus. Entropy is a better out-of-sample predictor of market returns than a collection of standard measures. Cross-sectional entropy exposure carries a negative risk premium, suggesting that assets that positively covary with entropy hedge the aggregate risk associated with shifting news language. Entropy risk cannot be explained by existing long-short factors

    Collateralized networks

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    This paper studies the spread of losses and defaults in financial networks with two interrelated features: collateral requirements and alternative contract termination rules. When collateral is committed to a firm’s counterparties, a solvent firm may default if it lacks sufficient liquid assets to meet its payment obligations. Collateral requirements can thus increase defaults and payment shortfalls. Moreover, one firm may benefit from the failure of another if the failure frees collateral committed by the surviving firm, giving it additional resources to make other payments. Contract termination at default may also improve the ability of other firms to meet their obligations through access to collateral. As a consequence of these features, the timing of payments and collateral liquidation must be carefully specified to establish the existence of payments that clear the network. Using this framework, we show that dedicated collateral may lead to more defaults than pooled collateral; we study the consequences of illiquid collateral for the spread of losses through fire sales; we compare networks with and without selective contract termination; and we analyze the impact of alternative resolution and bankruptcy stay rules that limit the seizure of collateral at default. Under an upper bound on derivatives leverage, full termination reduces payment shortfalls compared with selective termination

    Linear Classifiers Under Infinite Imbalance

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    We study the behavior of linear discriminant functions for binary classification in the infinite-imbalance limit, where the sample size of one class grows without bound while the sample size of the other remains fixed. The coefficients of the classifier minimize an expected loss specified through a weight function. We show that for a broad class of weight functions, the intercept diverges but the rest of the coefficient vector has a finite limit under infinite imbalance, extending prior work on logistic regression. The limit depends on the left tail of the weight function, for which we distinguish three cases: bounded, asymptotically polynomial, and asymptotically exponential. The limiting coefficient vectors reflect robustness or conservatism properties in the sense that they optimize against certain worst-case alternatives. In the bounded and polynomial cases, the limit is equivalent to an implicit choice of upsampling distribution for the minority class. We apply these ideas in a credit risk setting, with particular emphasis on performance in the high-sensitivity and high-specificity regions

    Hidden Illiquidity with Multiple Central Counterparties

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    Abstract Regulatory changes are transforming the multi-trillion dollar swaps market from a network of bilateral contracts to one in which swaps are cleared through central counterparties (CCPs). The stability of the new framework depends on the resilience of CCPs. Margin requirements are a CCP's first line of defense against the default of a counterparty. To capture liquidity costs at default, margin requirements need to increase superlinearly in position size. However, convex margin requirements create an incentive for a swaps dealer to split its positions across multiple CCPs, effectively "hiding" potential liquidation costs from each CCP. To compensate, each CCP needs to set higher margin requirements than it would in isolation. In a model with two CCPs, we define an equilibrium as a pair of margin schedules through which both CCPs collect sufficient margin under a dealer's optimal allocation of trades. In the case of linear price impact, we show that a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of an equilibrium is that the two CCPs agree on liquidity costs, and we characterize all equilibria when this holds. A difference in views can lead to a race to the bottom. We provide extensions of this result and discuss its implications for CCP oversight and risk management

    Swing Pricing for Mutual Funds: Breaking the Feedback Loop Between Fire Sales and Fund Redemptions

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    10.1287/mnsc.2019.3353Management Scienc

    A Service of zbw Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre for Economics Pricing the term structure with linear regressions Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports Pricing the Term Structure with Linear Regressions Pricing t

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    Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may Abstract We show how to price the time series and cross section of zero coupon bonds via ordinary least squares regressions. Our approach allows computationally fast estimation of term structure models with a large number of pricing factors. Even though we do not impose cross-equation restrictions in the estimation, we show that our return regressions generate a term structure of interest rates with small pricing errors compared to commonly reported specifications, both in and out-of-sample

    Collateralized Networks

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    Systemic Risk: Fire-Walling Financial Systems Using Network-Based Approaches

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    The latest financial crisis has painfully revealed the dangers arising from a globally interconnected financial system. Conventional approaches based on the notion of the existence of equilibrium and those which rely on statistical forecasting have seen to be inadequate to describe financial systems in any reasonable way. A more natural approach is to treat financial systems as complex networks of claims and obligations between various financial institutions present in an economy. The generic framework of complex networks has been successfully applied across several disciplines, e.g., explaining cascading failures in power transmission systems and epidemic spreading. Here we review various network models addressing financial contagion via direct inter-bank contracts and indirectly via overlapping portfolios of financial institutions. In particular, we discuss the implications of the "robust-yet-fragile" nature of financial networks for cost-effective regulation of systemic risk.Comment: 19 pages, 7 figure