28 research outputs found

    Evaluation of the Costs and Benefits of EU-Wide Emission Trade for Finland

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    This study assesses the economic impacts of the proposed EU-wide emission trade both on the European union as a whole and on Finland in particular. The study utilises the global GTAP-E- CGE-model to analyse Europe-wide impacts and a Finland-specific, hybrid, CGE-model to study the impacts on the Finnish economy. The main finding of the study is that at a European level, emission trade appears to be very beneficial. However, emission trade along the lines of the EU Emission trade directive would not necessarily lower the macroeconomic costs of green house gas abatement in Finland, since it might very well misallocate quotas among the trading sectors on the one hand, and between the trading sectors and the rest of the economy on the other. Abatement costs might be lowered within some of the trading sectors, however

    EU-enlargement and the Opening of Russia: Lessons from the GTAP Reference Model

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    This paper examines the economic effects of the opening of the former Soviet Union. The analysis carried out in the paper is two-fold. First we simulate the impact of the eastern enlargement of the EU and, second, we analyse how deeper integration between the EU and FSU contributes to this. The analysis is carried out with FTAP computable general equilibrium model. We find that there is a trade-off between the two roads of European integration arrangements. Eastern enlargement seems, even in its very deep form, be beneficial for all EU regions without causing substantial welfare losses outside the Union. The only regions that seem to lose somewhat are NAFTA and Japan. EU-CIS integration, on the other hand, has different impact. To be beneficial for CIS-countries free trade between the EU and CIS countries requires improved productivity in the latter, which may be due to better institutions or increased FDI, but still the agreement is not beneficial for large parts of the EU and the rest of the world

    Asian Regionalism Versus Global Free Trade: A Simulation Study on Economic Effects

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    This paper evaluates and compares the economic effects of global liberalization of world trade and regional integration scenario in which an Asian trading block is emerging. The evaluation is based on computable general equilibrium model GTAP (global trade analysis project) that has been widely used in analyses of big regime changes in world economy. The results show that global free trade is better for all regions in the investigation. Compared to the current trade regime, that does not hold since e.g. the new EU member states would be worse-off. The biggest winners of global free trade are Asian countries, Brasilia and developing countries. At industry level the results show regional concentration tendencies in production of agriculture, energy sector and in textile, paper and car industries

    Climate Change Policies, World Markets and Finland - Simulation Results

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    We quantify the costs of global climate change policies to Finland using a modified GTAP-E model. We calculate resource abundance profiles proposed by Leamer assuming emission rights to be new factor endowments to characterize the impact of the Kyoto agreement on the distribution of the comparative advantage and to interpret the results. We estimate economylevel and detailed sector-specific effects of climate change policies without isolating Finland from world markets: changes in trade linkages are endogenously determined by global climate change policies. We produce a range of estimates by varying the regional coverage and the way of implementation of the climate treaty. When trade linkages are explicit, standard growth scenarios imply considerably higher emissions reductions than previous estimates

    Selvitys päästökaupan markkinavakausvarannon vaikutuksista sähkön tukkuhintaan

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    Tämä Pekka Sulamaan ja Juha Forsströmin laatima raportti päästökaupan markkinavakausvarannon taloudellisista vaikutuksista kuuluu selvityshankkeisiin, joita ETLA tekee EU-aloitteiden vaikutusten arvioinnin tehostamiseksi osana ETLAn ja valtioneuvoston kanslian puitesopimusta. Tämä arvioinnin tehostaminen on puolestaan osa valtioneuvoston päätöksentekoa tukevaa selvitys- ja tutkimustoimin-taa, jonka tavoitteena on luoda perusta tutkimustiedon systemaattiselle ja laaja-alaiselle käyttämiselle päätöksenteossa, tiedolla johtamisessa ja toimintakäytännöissä

    Turkish EU Membership: A Simulation Study on Economic Effects

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    This paper evaluates the economic effects of Turkish EU membership. The evaluation is based on the widely utilized computable general equilibrium called model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). Imperfect competition is modelled by existence of scale economies on non agricultural sectors. The latest GTAP database version (base year 2001) is aggregated into seven regions: Turkey, Germany-Austria, North EU, South EU, Balkan countries, NAFTA, ASIA and Rest of World. We analyse economic effects of abolishing trade barriers between the EU25 and Turkey and applying common external tax on Turkey. Turkish EU membership is clearly beneficial for Turkey and it does not seem to have significant negative impact for the rest of the world. If we take scale economies into account the aggregate effects are larger than in perfect competition case.Turkin EU jäsenyyden taloudellisia vaikutuksia analysoidaan numeerisella yleisen tasapainon mallilla (GTAP malli). Mallissa otetaan huomioon epätäydellinen kilpailu olettamalla nousevat skaalatuotot kaikilla toimialoilla paitsi maataloudessa. Turkin EU jäsenyys simuloitiin poistamalla kaikki jäljellä olevat tullit EU ja Turkin välillä sekä asettamalla Turkille sama keskimääräinen tullitaso kolmansiin maihin kuin EU:lla. Työvoiman siirtymistä Turkin ja EU:n välillä ei huomioitu. Simulaatiotulokset osoittavat, että Turkki hyötyy EU jäsenyydestä, joskin hyödyt ovat pieniä. EU:lle Turkin jäsenyydestä ei ole merkittäviä taloudellisia vaikutuksia. Epätäydellinen kilpailuoletus lisäsi Turkin saamia hyötyjä selvästi täydelliseen kilpailutasapainoon verrattuna

    Budjetin aluevaikutukset - Valtion alueellistamis- ja tuottavuusohjelman vaikutukset maakunnissa

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    Tässä tutkimuksessa arvioidaan valtionhallinnon toimintojen alueellistamisen taloudellisia vaikutuksia maakuntatasolla sekä kunnallistalouden ja valtiontalouden tasoilla. Arviointiin käytetään alueellista tasapainomallia. Valtionhallinnon työpaikkojen kehitykseen vaikuttavat henkilöstön vanhenemisen aiheuttama luonnollinen poistuma sekä ennen kaikkea valtion tuottavuusohjelma, jonka vaikutuksista tutkimuksessa esitetään myös arvio. Alueellistaminen näkyy valtionhallinnon työpaikkojen vähenemisenä pääkaupunkiseudulla ja niiden lisääntymisenä muualla Suomessa. Tutkimuksen mukaan alueellistaminen kompensoi ikääntymisen vaikutuksia useissa maakunnissa, mutta kokonaisuudessaan se ei kompensoi julkishallinnon työntekijämäärän poistumaa.This paper analyses regional effects of two policy scenarios: a public sector productivity increase and an de-centralisation of the public sector. The analysis uses a regional, computable general equilibrium model developed for the Finnish economy at the Government Institute for Economic Research. Overall the results indicated that decentralization compensates the effects on ageing on public sector employment in some regions, but not for the country as a whole. Moreover, other policy programmes, such as the productivity programme, are seen to have a marked effect on regional, public sector employment as well

    Economic Effects of Free Trade between the EU and Russia. CEPS ENEPRI Working Papers No. 36, 1 May 2005

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    This study simulates the economic effects of eastern enlargement of the EU and an EU-Russian free trade area. The main emphasis of the paper is on the effect this would have on the Russian economy. The simulations were carried out with a GTAP computable general equilibrium model, using the most recent GTAP database 6.0 beta, which takes the former Europe agreements between the EU-15 and the eight new Central and Eastern European member states into account. The results confirm the earlier findings that a free trade agreement with the EU is beneficial for Russia in terms of total output but not necessarily in terms of economic welfare when measured by equivalent variation. The main reason behind this is the deterioration that would occur in Russia’s terms of trade. Improved productivity in Russia would, however, make the free trade agreement with the EU advantageous

    EU-Enlargement and Beyond: A Simulation Study on EU and Russia Integration

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    This paper examines the economic effects of the opening of the Russian Federation. The analysis carried out in the paper is two-fold. First we simulate the impact of the eastern enlargement of the EU and, second, we analyse how deeper integration between the EU and Russia contributes to this. The analysis is carried out with GTAP computable general equilibrium model. We find that there is a trade-off between the two roads of European integration arrangements. Eastern enlargement seems, even in its very deep form, be beneficial for all EU regions without causing substantial welfare losses outside the Union. EU-Russia integration, on the other hand, has different impact. To be beneficial for Russia free trade between the EU and Russia requires improved productivity in the latter, which may be due to better institutions or increased FDI. This might make the negotiations of the agreement cumbersome and if agreed its implementation difficult.Tämä tutkimus tarkastelee Venäjän ja EU:n välisen integration taloudellisia vaikutuksia. Analysoimme aluksi EU:n itälaajenemisen vaikutuksia ja edelleen EU:n ja Venäjän tiiviimmän integroitumisen vaikutuksia. Analyysi perustuu yleisen tasapainon GTAP-mallisimulointeihin. Tulosten mukaan itälaajeneminen lisää koko laajentuneen EU:n taloudellista hyvinvointia samalla vähentämättä muun maailman hyvinvointia. EU:n ja Venäjän välisen integraation vaikutukset ovat erilaiset. Hyödyttääkseen Venäjää tiiviimpi integraatio edellyttää tämän tuottavuuden paranemista, joka voi seurata institutionaalisesta kehityksestä tai ulkomaisista suorista sijoituksista
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