Use costs in a two-R&D-sector model

In this paper we assess the properties of scale-free endogenous growth models in presence of use costs for the final users. As bench-mark we use Segerstrom (2000) two R&D sector model. When use costs apply to both types of innovation we find counterintuitive results with respect to the standard Endogenous Growth literature ; use costs can increase growth. This is due to the presence of both increasing returns in the research functions and the population growth condition. When costs apply to vertical innovations only we can establish more intuitive results : under mild conditions use costs decrease the rate of vertical innovation and of overall economic growth.Endogenous Growth; Scale effect; Adoption costs

Non-Response in Dynamic Panel Data Models

This paper stresses the links that exist between concepts that are used in the theory of model reduction and concepts that arise in the missing data literature. This connection motivates the extension of the missing at random (MAR) and the missing completely at random (MCAR) concepts from a static setting, as introduced by Rubin (1976), to the case of dynamic panel data models. Using this extension of the MAR and MCAR definitions, we emphasize the limits of some tests and procedures, proposed by Little (1988), Diggle (1989), Park and Davis (1993), Taris (1996) and others, to verify the ignorability of the missing data mechanism.dynamic panel model, attrition, non-response, missing at random, missing completely at random, statistical model reduction

Does money lead inflation in the euro area?

This paper investigates the properties of monetary and credit aggregates as indicators for future price developments in the euro area. The forecasting performance of models including indicators based on money and credit is assessed in a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for forecast horizons varying from one quarter to three years ahead. The performance of these models is compared with that of models which include indicators based on financial markets, real activity, the labour market and various cost and price measures. The results support the idea that monetary and credit aggregates provide significant and independent information for future price developments in the euro area, especially at medium term horizons JEL Classification: E31, E40, C32

Regulation, productivity, and growth : OECD evidence

The authors look at differences in the scope and depth of pro-competitive regulatory reforms and privatization policies as a possible source of cross-country dispersion in growth outcomes. They suggest that, despite extensive liberalization and privatization in the OECD area, the cross-country variation of regulatory settings has increased in recent years, lining up with the increasing dispersion in growth. The authors then investigate empirically the regulation-growth link using data that cover a large set of manufacturing and service industries in OECD countries over the past two decades and focusing on multifactor productivity (MFP), which plays a crucial role in GDP growth and accounts for a significant share of its cross-country variance. Regressing MFP on both economywide indicators of regulation and privatization and industry-level indicators of entry liberalization, the authors find evidence that reforms promoting private governance and competition (where these are viable) tend to boost productivity. In manufacturing the gains to be expected from lower entry barriers are greater the further a given country is from the technology leader. So, regulation limiting entry may hinder the adoption of existing technologies, possibly by reducing competitive pressures, technology spillovers, or the entry of new high technology firms. At the same time, both privatization and entry liberalization are estimated to have a positive impact on productivity in all sectors. These results offer an interpretation to the observed recent differences in growth patterns across OECD countries, in particular between large continental European economies and the United States. Strict product market regulations-and lack of regulatory reforms-are likely to underlie the relatively poorer productivity performance of some European countries, especially in those industries where Europe has accumulated a technology gap (such as information and communication technology-related industries). These results also offer useful insights for non-OECD countries. In particular, they point to the potential benefits of regulatory reforms and privatization, especially in those countries with large technology gaps and strict regulatory settings that curb incentives to adopt new technologies.Labor Policies,Public Health Promotion,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Governance Indicators,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Health Economics&Finance

Capital Market Frictions and the Business Cycle

We augment a RBC model with capital and labor market frictions. We follow the approach of Wasmer and Weil (2004) which model market imperfections as search processes : firms must sequentially find a match with a bank first and then with a worker in order to start production. We show that the interactions between labor and capital market frictions may generate a financial accelerator or decelerator, depending on a parameter condition. We compare our model with US National Accounts data and with the empirical findings of Dell’Ariccia and Garibaldi (2005) : we find that the financial accelerator as well as real wage rigidities help in improving the statistical propqerties of the model

Estimating DGSE models with long memory dynamics

Recent literature clams that key variables such as aggregate productivity and inflation display long memory dynamics. We study the impllications of this high degree of persistence on the estimation of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DGSE) models. We show that long memory data produce substantial bias in the deep parameter estimates when a standard Kalman Filter-MLE procedure is used. We propose a modification of the Kalman Filter procedure, we mainly augment the state space, which deals with this problem. By the means of the augmented state space we can consistently estimate the model parameters as well as produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts compared to the standard Kalman filter.

Survey response and survey characteristics: Micro-level evidence from the ECHP

This paper presents some micro-level evidence on the role of the socio-demographic characteristics of the population and the characteristics of the data collection process as predictors of survey response. Our evidence is based on the public use files of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP), a longitudinal household survey covering the countries of the European Union, whose attractive feature is the high level of comparability across countries and over time. We use individual-level information to predict response in the next wave given response in the current wave, focusing on how the probabilities of contact failure and refusal to cooperate vary with the socio-demographic composition of the national populations and the characteristics of the data collection process. We model the response process as the outcome of two sequential events; (i) the contact between the interviewer and an eligible interviewee, and (ii) the cooperation of the interviewee. Our model allows for dependence between the ease of contact and the propensity to cooperate, taking into account the censoring problem caused by the fact that we observe whether a person is a respondent only if she has been contacted.Panel data, survey response, bivariate probit model.

The (mis)specification of discrete duration models with unobserved heterogeneity: a Monte Carlo study

Empirical researchers usually prefer statistical models that can be easily estimated using standard software packages. One such model is the sequential binary model with or without normal random effects; such models can be adopted to estimate discrete duration models with unobserved heterogeneity. But ease of estimation may come at a cost. In this paper we conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the consequences of omitting or misspecifying the unobserved heterogeneity distribution in single-spell discrete duration models.discrete duration models, unobserved heterogeneity, Monte Carlo simulations

Subjective and Objective Measures of the Extent of Governmental Regulations

In recent years, three different quantitative studies measuring the extent of regulation in OECD nations have appeared. One analysis is based on an extensive review and quantification of laws and regulations; the other two are based on opinion data of those familiar with these regulations. Despite their very different methodologies and coverage of particular types of governmental regulation, the results of the three studies are significantly correlated, even though they differ in detail. The advantages and disadvantages of each of the three approaches are discussed.Regulatory Reform, Other Topics