Identifying Asset Poverty Thresholds New methods with an application to Pakistan and Ethiopia

Understanding how households escape poverty depends on understanding how they accumulate assets over time. Therefore, identifying the degree of linearity in household asset dynamics, and specifically any potential asset poverty thresholds, is of fundamental interest to the design of poverty reduction policies. If household asset holdings converged unconditionally to a single long run equilibrium, then all poor could be expected to escape poverty over time. In contrast, if there are critical asset thresholds that trap households below the poverty line, then households would need specific assistance to escape poverty. Similarly, the presence of asset poverty thresholds would mean that short term asset shocks could lead to long term destitution, thus highlighting the need for social safety nets. In addition to the direct policy relevance, identifying household asset dynamics and potential asset thresholds presents an interesting methodological challenge to researchers. Potential asset poverty thresholds can only be identified in a framework that allows multiple dynamic equilibria. Any unstable equilibrium points would indicate a potential poverty threshold, above which households are expected to accumulate further and below which households are on a trajectory that makes them poorer over time. The key empirical issue addressed in the paper is whether such threshold points exist in Pakistan and Ethiopia and, if so, where they are located. Methodologically, the paper explores what econometric technique is best suited for this type of analysis. The paper contributes to the small current literature on modeling nonlinear household welfare dynamics in three ways. First, it compares previously used techniques for identifying asset poverty traps by applying them to the same dataset, and examines whether, and how, the choice of estimation technique affects the result. Second, it explores whether other estimation techniques may be more suitable to locate poverty thresholds. Third, it adds the first study for a South Asian country and makes a comparison with Ethiopia. Household assets are combined into a single asset index using two techniques: factor analysis and regression. These indices are used to estimate asset dynamics and locate dynamic asset equilibria, first by nonparametric methods including LOWESS, kernel weighted local regression and spline smoothers, and then by global polynomial parametric techniques. To combine the advantages of nonparametric and parametric techniques - a flexible functional form and the ability to control for covariates, respectively - the paper adapts a mixed model representation of a penalized spline to estimate asset dynamics through a semiparametric partially linear model. This paper identifies a single dynamic asset equilibrium with a slightly concave dynamic asset accumulation path in each country. There is no evidence for multiple dynamic equilibria. This result is robust across econometric methods and across different ways of constructing the asset index. The concave accumulation path means that poorer households recover more slowly from asset shocks. Concavity also implies that greater initial equality of assets would lead to higher growth. Moreover, the dynamic asset equilibria are very low. In Pakistan it is below the average asset holdings of the poor households in the sample. In Ethiopia, the equilibrium is barely above the very low mean. This, together with the slow speed of asset accumulation for the poorest households, suggests that convergence towards the long run equilibrium may be slow and insufficient for rural households in Pakistan and Ethiopia to escape poverty.Poverty dynamics, Semiparametric Estimation, Penalized Splines, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Consumer/Household Economics, I32, C14, O12,

“Poor stays poor” - Household asset poverty traps in rural semi-arid India

Although identifying the existence and the nature of household-level poverty traps would have important implications for the design of poverty reduction policies empirical evidence is still scant. A small, but growing empirical literature has begun testing for poverty traps as thresholds in non-linear welfare dynamics. Employing a variety of quantitative methods it has produced a variety of conclusions. This paper uses a uniquely long household panel from three villages in rural India to examine whether the detection of poverty traps may be contingent on the quantitative method used to model household welfare dynamics. It then employs a novel semiparametric panel data estimator that combines the advantages of the existing methods. Since in the context of dynamic poverty traps we are primarily concerned with expected, structural well-being it measures household welfare in assets. Structural immobility in these Indian villages is pervasive. Household asset holdings are stagnant over time. Absent any structural changes, the currently poor are likely to remain poor, suggesting a strong type of poverty trap that is qualitatively different from a dynamic thresholds-type poverty trap. While all types of households face static asset holdings, higher castes, larger landholders and more educated households are significantly less likely to be poor.Household Welfare Dynamics, Semiparametric Estimation, Penalized Splines, India, Panel Data, Asset Poverty, International Development, I32, C14, O12,

A stochastic dominance approach to program evaluation with an application to child nutritional status in arid and semi-arid Kenya

Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

Reforming the implementation of European structural funds: A next development step

The authors assess the performance of the Structural Funds’ implementation system in six Member States of the European Union. Considering the strengths and weaknesses, they develop a reform model for the implementation of European structural policy after 1999. The strengths of the existing implementation system lie mainly in innovation effects triggered by the Structural Funds' model of policy implementation. Its main weaknesses, inter alia, are an interwoven structure of the decision-making processes, an insufficient time management and a lack of in-built improvement loops in the implementation process. To overcome these shortcomings, the authors propose a strategic management and decentralisation model. It demands a de-coupling of strategic programming on the one hand, and detailed programming and implementation on the other. Under this model, the Commission and the Member State would negotiate on the strategic issues. In the framework of the agreement, the Member State together with the monitoring committees would be responsible for the implementation of the programmes. Strengthened feedback loops would help to assure the attainment of the strategic objectives. -- Die Autoren untersuchen die Leistungsfähigkeit des Implementationssystems der Strukturfondsförderung in sechs Mitgliedstaaten der Europäischen Union. Vor dem Hintergrund der Stärken und Schwächen entwickeln sie ein Reformmodell zur Implementation der Strukturfonds in der nächsten Förderperiode nach der Reform 1999. Die Stärken des bestehenden Implementationssystems liegen vor allem in den prozeduralen Innovationen, die z.T. auf das Politikmodell der Strukturfonds und seine Kopplung an mitgliedstaatliche Verwaltungsprozesse zurückgeführt werden können. Die wichtigsten Schwächen sind u.a. die verflochtene Struktur der Entscheidungsprozesse, ein ungenügendes Zeitmanagement und fehlende inhärente Verbesserungsmechanismen des Implementationsprozesses. Um diese Schwächen zu überwinden, schlagen die Autoren ein strategisches Management- und Dezentralisierungsmodell vor. Sein Kern besteht in der Trennung von strategischer Programmierung einerseits und Detailprogrammierung und Implementation andererseits. Die Europäische Kommission und der jeweilige Mitgliedstaat handeln demnach die strategischen Teile der Programme aus. Im Rahmen dieser strategischen Vereinbarung ist dann der Mitgliedstaat für die Detailprogrammierung und Umsetzung der Programme verantwortlich, wobei er vom Begleitausschuß unterstützt wird. Verstärkte Feedbackinstrumente tragen dazu bei, die Einhaltung der strategischen Vorgaben zu sichern.

The dialectics of modernising local government: An assessment for the mid-90s and an agenda for the 21st century (Agenda 21)

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Idiosyncratic shocks, risk management and welfare dynamics in rural Ghana

International Development, Risk and Uncertainty,

Targeting maps: An asset-based approach to geographic targeting

Proper targeting of policy interventions requires reasonable estimates of the benefits of the alternative options. To inform such decisions, we develop an integrated approach stemming from the small-area estimation literature that estimates the marginal returns to a range of assets across geographically defined subpopulations. We create a series of maps that can be overlaid with traditional poverty maps to identify strong candidate areas for intervention, though an efficiency/equity tradeoff sometimes exists. We apply our method using recent Ugandan data. Results are consistent with independent empirical findings and suggest asset specific transfer schemes would improve with a spatially targeted strategy

Manual de orientação: kit 2: atividades grafofonológicas, morfossintáticas, semânticas e pragmáticas integradas

Este manual é composto por diversos materiais e atividades que foram desenvolvidos para serem utilizados na alfabetização de crianças, tendo, portanto, características de ludicidade próprias a essa faixa etária. A ideia que une as atividades é simples e clara: alfabetizar envolve a linguagem falada, escrita e lida, de tal maneira que, de início, as formas que compõem as letras que formam as sílabas, palavras, frases, parágrafos e textos que podem ser lidos e escritos sejam manuseadas em atividades de montagem e remontagem desses elementos, num movimento incessante entre as partes e o todo