91 research outputs found

    PROFITABILITY AND MARKET STABILITY: FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICAL TRADING RULES

    Get PDF
    Traders in this simulation of an asset market endogenously select from available information sources in order to maximize expected profits. The information options include two noisy signals of future dividends (the fundamentals) and a simple trend following technical trading rule. Traders use the information for constructing a portfolio to hold through to the next period, consisting of a risky and a risk free asset . Due to free riding on information conveyed in the market price, the technical trading rule proves to be profitable when the market is near the fundamental equilibrium. Popularity of the technical trading rule alters the price dynamics and can move the price away from this equilibrium.The tradersÆ selection of an information source is modeled as a randomized discrete choice. The greater the expected relative benefit of an information source, the greater the probability of its selection. The intensity of choice parameter sets the tradersÆ sensitivity to expected benefits and plays a major role in determining market dynamics. In forming expected benefits of the fundamental information, traders are forward looking using current market observables. The technical trading rule is evaluated based on past performance. Once traders have selected an information source, demand for the risky asset is aggregated within each information source. A price is determined to clear the market.Depending on the intensity of choice setting, computer simulations of the market can result in growth in the popularity of the technical trading rule following a series of correct signals. The larger population of technical traders causes distortions in the market price which may lead to price bubbles. The price bubble contributes to the popularity of the trading rule while simultaneously moving the market further from the fundamental equilibrium. The eventual collapse of the bubble creates windfall profits for the remaining population of fundamental traders while the losses reduce the popularity of the technical trading rule. The market returns to the fundamental equilibrium allowing the cycle to begin again.Two self-fulfilling regimes exist, each resulting in different market dynamics. If traders believe that the distortionary impact the technical traders excerpt on the market price will continue, then the decision concerning information selection and the trading behavior of those who choose to rely on the fundamental information both serve to perpetuate the trading rule and its influence on price. Alternately, if the traders believe that any distortions will soon dissipate, then traders will be attracted to fundamental information when they suspect a deviation from fundamentals. Those selecting to use fundamental information will trade aggressively to exploit the distortion. These behaviors forces the price back towards the fundamental equilibrium. The market has a decreased tendency to develop large price bubbles in the latter regime, but smaller high frequency price oscillations continue. Current efforts include endogenizing the tradersÆ beliefs about which regime is in effect.A second observation addresses the evolutionary development of successful technical trading rules. In a market consisting exclusively of fundamental traders, the only type of technical trading rule which is able to exploit price patterns are trend following rules such as those initially examined. The distortions in price caused by the popularity of a trend following rule creates an environment in which different categories of rules may be useful. A price-dividend rule is examined. Though useless when the market is exclusively fundamental traders, the price dividend rule proves profitable in the market experiencing the distortions caused by the trend following rules.

    An Empirical Examination of Learning in Foreign Exchange Markets

    Get PDF
    Abstract Using a unique dataset of survey expectations, this paper examines the extent to which the classical fundamentalist -chartist dichotomy is valid for the foreign exchange market. By applying a recursive selection algorithm 1) respondents are classified into the two groups, and 2) the forecasting models are endogenously determined within the groups. We find that the largest part of the variation in expectations can be explained by the fundamentalist/chartist distinction. The majority of respondents use a simple chartist rule, while fundamentalists use a broad range of macro-economic information

    Draft genome sequence of Methylobacterium sp. strain V23, isolated from accretion ice of the Antarctic subglacial Lake Vostok

    Get PDF
    Here, we report the draft genome sequence of Methylobacterium sp. strain V23, a bacterium isolated from accretion ice of the subglacial Lake Vostok (3,592 meters below the surface). This genome makes possible the study of ancient and psychrophilic genes and proteins from a subglacial environment isolated from the surface for at least 15 million years.Fil: Sapp, Amanda. University of Florida; Estados UnidosFil: Huguet-Tapia, José C.. University of Florida; Estados UnidosFil: Sanchez Lamas, Maximiliano. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Antelo, Giuliano Tomás. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Primo, Emiliano David. Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Fisicoquímicas y Naturales. Departamento de Biología Molecular; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Rinaldi, Jimena Julieta. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Klinke, Sebastian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Goldbaum, Fernando Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Bonomi, Hernán Ruy. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Université de Montpellier; FranciaFil: Christner, Brent C.. University of Florida; Estados UnidosFil: Oteroc, Lisandro H.. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; Argentin

    Single domain antibodies: promising experimental and therapeutic tools in infection and immunity

    Get PDF
    Antibodies are important tools for experimental research and medical applications. Most antibodies are composed of two heavy and two light chains. Both chains contribute to the antigen-binding site which is usually flat or concave. In addition to these conventional antibodies, llamas, other camelids, and sharks also produce antibodies composed only of heavy chains. The antigen-binding site of these unusual heavy chain antibodies (hcAbs) is formed only by a single domain, designated VHH in camelid hcAbs and VNAR in shark hcAbs. VHH and VNAR are easily produced as recombinant proteins, designated single domain antibodies (sdAbs) or nanobodies. The CDR3 region of these sdAbs possesses the extraordinary capacity to form long fingerlike extensions that can extend into cavities on antigens, e.g., the active site crevice of enzymes. Other advantageous features of nanobodies include their small size, high solubility, thermal stability, refolding capacity, and good tissue penetration in vivo. Here we review the results of several recent proof-of-principle studies that open the exciting perspective of using sdAbs for modulating immune functions and for targeting toxins and microbes.Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo en Fermentaciones Industriale

    Development and validation of a computerized expert system for evaluation of automated visual fields from the Ischemic Optic Neuropathy Decompression Trial

    Get PDF
    BACKGROUND: The objective of this report is to describe the methods used to develop and validate a computerized system to analyze Humphrey visual fields obtained from patients with non-arteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (NAION) and enrolled in the Ischemic Optic Neuropathy Decompression Trial (IONDT). The IONDT was a multicenter study that included randomized and non-randomized patients with newly diagnosed NAION in the study eye. At baseline, randomized eyes had visual acuity of 20/64 or worse and non-randomized eyes had visual acuity of better than 20/64 or were associated with patients refusing randomization. Visual fields were measured before treatment using the Humphrey Field Analyzer with the 24-2 program, foveal threshold, and size III stimulus. METHODS: We used visual fields from 189 non-IONDT eyes with NAION to develop the computerized classification system. Six neuro-ophthalmologists ("expert panel") described definitions for visual field patterns defects using 19 visual fields representing a range of pattern defect types. The expert panel then used 120 visual fields, classified using these definitions, to refine the rules, generating revised definitions for 13 visual field pattern defects and 3 levels of severity. These definitions were incorporated into a rule-based computerized classification system run on Excel(® )software. The computerized classification system was used to categorize visual field defects for an additional 95 NAION visual fields, and the expert panel was asked to independently classify the new fields and subsequently whether they agreed with the computer classification. To account for test variability over time, we derived an adjustment factor from the pooled short term fluctuation. We examined change in defects with and without adjustment in visual fields of study participants who demonstrated a visual acuity decrease within 30 days of NAION onset (progressive NAION). RESULTS: Despite an agreed upon set of rules, there was not good agreement among the expert panel when their independent visual classifications were compared. A majority did concur with the computer classification for 91 of 95 visual fields. Remaining classification discrepancies could not be resolved without modifying existing definitions. Without using the adjustment factor, visual fields of 63.6% (14/22) patients with progressive NAION and no central defect, and all (7/7) patients with a paracentral defect, worsened within 30 days of NAION onset. After applying the adjustment factor, the visual fields of the same patients with no initial central defect and 5/7 of the patients with a paracentral defect were seen to worsen. CONCLUSION: The IONDT developed a rule-based computerized system that consistently defines pattern and severity of visual fields of NAION patients for use in a research setting

    Hepatitis Vaccination of Men Who Have Sex with Men at Gay Pride Events

    Get PDF
    Prevention researchers have advocated primary prevention such as vaccination in alternative venues. However, there have been major questions about both the attendance of, and the ability to, vaccinate high-risk individuals in such settings. The current study seeks to assess the feasibility of vaccinating high-risk men who have sex with men (MSM) at Gay Pride events. The research questions are: Do gay men who are sampled at Gay Pride events engage in more or less risky behavior than gay men sampled at other venues? Do the gay men who receive hepatitis vaccinations at Gay Pride engage in more or less risky behavior than gay men at Gay Pride who do not receive hepatitis vaccination? Of the 3689 MSM that completed the Field Risk Assessment (FRA), 1095/3689 = 29.68% were recruited at either the 2006 or 2007 Long Beach, California Gay Pride events. The remaining, 2594/3689 = 70.32% were recruited at Long Beach gay bars, gay community organizations and institutions, and through street recruitment in various gay enclaves in the Long Beach area. Logistic regression analysis yielded eight factors that were associated with non-attendance of Gay Pride: Age, had sex while high in the last 12 months, had unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) in the last 12 months, had sex for drugs/money in the last 12 months, been diagnosed with a sexually transmitted infection (STI) in the last 12 months, used nitrites (poppers) in the last 12 months, and used methamphetamine in the last 12 months. Identifying as White, Asian, or African American compared to Hispanic was also associated with non-attendance. Bivariate analysis indicated that, of the MSM sampled at Gay Pride, 280/1095 = 25.57% received a hepatitis vaccination there. The MSM sampled at Gay Pride who reported engaging in UAI or having used any stimulant (cocaine, crack-cocaine, or methamphetamine) in the last 12 months were more likely to receive hepatitis vaccination on-site. The results provide evidence for the viability of successfully vaccinating high-risk MSM at Gay Pride events. However, it is vital that no-cost vaccinations are also funded in other community settings such as STI clinics, drug treatment programs, prisons, universities, and other community resource centers in order to reach those additional high-risk MSM who do not attend Gay Pride

    Single domain antibodies: promising experimental and therapeutic tools in infection and immunity

    Get PDF
    Antibodies are important tools for experimental research and medical applications. Most antibodies are composed of two heavy and two light chains. Both chains contribute to the antigen-binding site which is usually flat or concave. In addition to these conventional antibodies, llamas, other camelids, and sharks also produce antibodies composed only of heavy chains. The antigen-binding site of these unusual heavy chain antibodies (hcAbs) is formed only by a single domain, designated VHH in camelid hcAbs and VNAR in shark hcAbs. VHH and VNAR are easily produced as recombinant proteins, designated single domain antibodies (sdAbs) or nanobodies. The CDR3 region of these sdAbs possesses the extraordinary capacity to form long fingerlike extensions that can extend into cavities on antigens, e.g., the active site crevice of enzymes. Other advantageous features of nanobodies include their small size, high solubility, thermal stability, refolding capacity, and good tissue penetration in vivo. Here we review the results of several recent proof-of-principle studies that open the exciting perspective of using sdAbs for modulating immune functions and for targeting toxins and microbes
    • …
    corecore