Induction of models under uncertainty

This paper outlines a procedure for performing induction under uncertainty. This procedure uses a probabilistic representation and uses Bayes' theorem to decide between alternative hypotheses (theories). This procedure is illustrated by a robot with no prior world experience performing induction on data it has gathered about the world. The particular inductive problem is the formation of class descriptions both for the tutored and untutored cases. The resulting class definitions are inherently probabilistic and so do not have any sharply defined membership criterion. This robot example raises some fundamental problems about induction; particularly, it is shown that inductively formed theories are not the best way to make predictions. Another difficulty is the need to provide prior probabilities for the set of possible theories. The main criterion for such priors is a pragmatic one aimed at keeping the theory structure as simple as possible, while still reflecting any structure discovered in the data

Evolutionary tree reconstruction

It is described how Minimum Description Length (MDL) can be applied to the problem of DNA and protein evolutionary tree reconstruction. If there is a set of mutations that transform a common ancestor into a set of the known sequences, and this description is shorter than the information to encode the known sequences directly, then strong evidence for an evolutionary relationship has been found. A heuristic algorithm is described that searches for the simplest tree (smallest MDL) that finds close to optimal trees on the test data. Various ways of extending the MDL theory to more complex evolutionary relationships are discussed

Iain Cheeseman: A strong attachment to kinetochores

Cheeseman is looking forward to a new era of research on chromosome segregation

When Gravity Fails: Local Search Topology

Local search algorithms for combinatorial search problems frequently encounter a sequence of states in which it is impossible to improve the value of the objective function; moves through these regions, called plateau moves, dominate the time spent in local search. We analyze and characterize plateaus for three different classes of randomly generated Boolean Satisfiability problems. We identify several interesting features of plateaus that impact the performance of local search algorithms. We show that local minima tend to be small but occasionally may be very large. We also show that local minima can be escaped without unsatisfying a large number of clauses, but that systematically searching for an escape route may be computationally expensive if the local minimum is large. We show that plateaus with exits, called benches, tend to be much larger than minima, and that some benches have very few exit states which local search can use to escape. We show that the solutions (i.e., global minima) of randomly generated problem instances form clusters, which behave similarly to local minima. We revisit several enhancements of local search algorithms and explain their performance in light of our results. Finally we discuss strategies for creating the next generation of local search algorithms.Comment: See http://www.jair.org/ for any accompanying file

Distributed-memory parallelization of an explicit time-domain volume integral equation solver on Blue Gene/P

Two distributed-memory schemes for efficiently parallelizing the explicit marching-on in-time based solution of the time domain volume integral equation on the IBM Blue Gene/P platform are presented. In the first scheme, each processor stores the time history of all source fields and only the computationally dominant step of the tested field computations is distributed among processors. This scheme requires all-to-all global communications to update the time history of the source fields from the tested fields. In the second scheme, the source fields as well as all steps of the tested field computations are distributed among processors. This scheme requires sequential global communications to update the time history of the distributed source fields from the tested fields. Numerical results demonstrate that both schemes scale well on the IBM Blue Gene/P platform and the memory efficient second scheme allows for the characterization of transient wave interactions on composite structures discretized using three million spatial elements without an acceleration algorithm

Bayesian classification theory

The task of inferring a set of classes and class descriptions most likely to explain a given data set can be placed on a firm theoretical foundation using Bayesian statistics. Within this framework and using various mathematical and algorithmic approximations, the AutoClass system searches for the most probable classifications, automatically choosing the number of classes and complexity of class descriptions. A simpler version of AutoClass has been applied to many large real data sets, has discovered new independently-verified phenomena, and has been released as a robust software package. Recent extensions allow attributes to be selectively correlated within particular classes, and allow classes to inherit or share model parameters though a class hierarchy. We summarize the mathematical foundations of AutoClass

Recommendations for NASA research and development in artificial intelligence

Basic artificial intelligence (AI) research, AI applications, engineering, institutional management, and previously impractical missions enabled by AI are discussed

Autoclass: An automatic classification system

The task of inferring a set of classes and class descriptions most likely to explain a given data set can be placed on a firm theoretical foundation using Bayesian statistics. Within this framework, and using various mathematical and algorithmic approximations, the AutoClass System searches for the most probable classifications, automatically choosing the number of classes and complexity of class descriptions. A simpler version of AutoClass has been applied to many large real data sets, has discovered new independently-verified phenomena, and has been released as a robust software package. Recent extensions allow attributes to be selectively correlated within particular classes, and allow classes to inherit, or share, model parameters through a class hierarchy. The mathematical foundations of AutoClass are summarized

Potential acoustic benefits of circulation control rotors

The fundamental aeroacoustic mechanisms responsible for noise generation on a rotating blade are theoretically examined. Their contribution to the overall rotor sound pressure level is predicted. Results from a theory for airfoil trailing edge noise are presented. Modifications and extensions to other source theories are described where it is necessary to account for unique aspects of circulation control (CC) aerodynamics. The circulation control rotor (CCR), as embodied on an X-wing vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft, is used as an example for computational purposes, although many of the theoretical results presented are generally applicable to other CC applications (such as low speed rotors, propellers, compressors, and fixed wing aircraft). Using the analytical models, it is shown that the utilization CC aerodynamics theoretically makes possible unprecedented advances in rotor noise reduction. For the X-wing VTOL these reductions appear to be feasible without incurring significant attendant performance and weight penalties