263 research outputs found

    A reality check for the applicability of comprehensive climate risk assessment and management: Experiences from Peru, India and Austria

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    Climate-related risks are a major threat to humanity, affecting the lives and livelihoods of communities globally. Even with adaptation, climate change is projected to increase the severity of risks, leading to impacts and residual risks, also termed losses and damages. Frameworks and approaches using Climate Risk Management (CRM), an integration of Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change Adaptation, and sustainable development, are being devised to support the comprehensive management of increasing climate-related risks. Here we discuss to what extent comprehensive CRM has been implemented in three specific cases – in Peru, India and Austria. The approach is conceptually represented and evaluated using a CRM framework. The cases deal with risks associated with glacial lake outburst floods, sea level rise, tropical cyclones, salinization, riverine floods and agricultural droughts. Ultimately, we synthesise policy and research recommendations to help understand what is feasible for CRM approaches applied in practice. We find that successful CRM implementation in practice benefits from being flexible, and participatory from beginning to end, whilst considering compounding risks, and the spectrum of (just and equitable) incremental to transformational adaptation measures necessary for attending to current and projected future increases in climate-related risks

    Climate change-related risks and adaptation potential in Central and South America during the 21st century

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    Climate-related risks in Central and South America have received increased attention and concern in science and policy, but an up-to-date comprehensive review and synthesis of risks and adaptation potential is currently missing. For this paper we evaluated over 200 peer-reviewed articles and grey literature documents published since 2012. We found that climate change in Central and South America during the 21st century may increase the risk to severe levels for the following topical risk clusters: (a) Food insecurity; (b) Floods and landslides; (c) Water scarcity; (d) Epidemics of vector-borne diseases; (e) Amazon Forest biome shift; (f). Coral bleaching; (g) Coastal risks of sea level rise, storm surges and erosion; (h) Systemic failure due to cascading impacts of hazards and epidemics. Our synthesis also identified feasible adaptation measures for each risk. The impacts of the risks will be heterogeneous throughout the region, with rural communities, Indigenous peoples, Afro-Latin Americans, women, disabled people, and migrants identified as being the most severely affected. We refer to a number of adaptation options for each risk. However, unabated climate change together with low adaptive capacity will strictly limit adaptation options. Immediate strengthening of policies for building adaptive capacity and increase of research on the risk-adaptation nexus in Central and South America are paramount. Our findings might contribute to guide the adjustment and emphasis of adaptation policies and climate risk management strategies from local to national level

    Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021):a research community perspective

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    Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most concerning consequences of retreating glaciers in mountain ranges worldwide. GLOFs have attracted significant attention amongst scientists and practitioners in the past 2 decades, with particular interest in the physical drivers and mechanisms of GLOF hazard and in socioeconomic and other human-related developments that affect vulnerabilities to GLOF events. This increased research focus on GLOFs is reflected in the gradually increasing number of papers published annually. This study offers an overview of recent GLOF research by analysing 594 peer-reviewed GLOF studies published between 2017 and 2021 (Web of Science and Scopus databases), reviewing the content and geographical focus as well as other characteristics of GLOF studies. This review is complemented with perspectives from the first GLOF conference (7-9 July 2021, online) where a global GLOF research community of major mountain regions gathered to discuss the current state of the art of integrated GLOF research. Therefore, representatives from 17 countries identified and elaborated trends and challenges and proposed possible ways forward to navigate future GLOF research, in four thematic areas: (i) understanding GLOFs - timing and processes; (ii) modelling GLOFs and GLOF process chains; (iii) GLOF risk management, prevention and warning; and (iv) human dimensions of GLOFs and GLOF attribution to climate change.Fil: Emmer, Adam. University of Graz; AustriaFil: Allen, Simon K.. Universitat Zurich; Suiza. Universidad de Ginebra; SuizaFil: Carey, Mark. University of Oregon; Estados UnidosFil: Frey, Holger. Universitat Zurich; SuizaFil: Huggel, Christian. Universitat Zurich; SuizaFil: Korup, Oliver. Universitat Potsdam; AlemaniaFil: Mergili, Martin. University of Graz; AustriaFil: Sattar, Ashim. Universitat Zurich; SuizaFil: Veh, Georg. Universitat Potsdam; AlemaniaFil: Chen, Thomas Y.. Columbia University; Estados UnidosFil: Cook, Simon J.. University Of Dundee; Reino Unido. Unesco. Centre For Water Law, Policy And Science; Reino UnidoFil: Correas Gonzalez, Mariana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Das, Soumik. Jawaharlal Nehru University; IndiaFil: Diaz Moreno, Alejandro. Reynolds International Ltd; Reino UnidoFil: Drenkhan, Fabian. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Perú; PerúFil: Fischer, Melanie. Universitat Potsdam; AlemaniaFil: Immerzeel, Walter W.. Utrecht University; Países BajosFil: Izagirre, Eñaut. Universidad del País Vasco; EspañaFil: Joshi, Ramesh Chandra. Kumaun University India; IndiaFil: Kougkoulos, Ioannis. American College Of Greece; GreciaFil: Kuyakanon Knapp, Riamsara. University of Oslo; Noruega. University of Cambridge; Estados UnidosFil: Li, Dongfeng. National University Of Singapore; SingapurFil: Majeed, Ulfat. University Of Kashmir; IndiaFil: Matti, Stephanie. Haskoli Islands; IslandiaFil: Moulton, Holly. University of Oregon; Estados UnidosFil: Nick, Faezeh. Utrecht University; Países BajosFil: Piroton, Valentine. Université de Liège; BélgicaFil: Rashid, Irfan. University Of Kashmir; IndiaFil: Reza, Masoom. Kumaun University India; IndiaFil: Ribeiro De Figueiredo, Anderson. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; BrasilFil: Riveros, Christian. Instituto Nacional de Investigación En Glaciares y Ecosistemas de Montaña; PerúFil: Shrestha, Finu. International Centre For Integrated Mountain Development Nepal; NepalFil: Shrestha, Milan. Arizona State University; Estados UnidosFil: Steiner, Jakob. International Centre For Integrated Mountain Development Nepal; NepalFil: Walker-Crawford, Noah. Colegio Universitario de Londres; Reino UnidoFil: Wood, Joanne L.. University of Exeter; Reino UnidoFil: Yde, Jacob C.. Western Norway University Of Applied Sciences; Suiz

    Central and South America

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    The chapter is divided into two main sections. The first section follows an integrative approach in which hazards, exposure, vulnerability, impacts and risks are discussed following the eight climatically homogeneous sub-regions described in WGI AR6 (Figure 12.1). The second section assesses the implemented and proposed adaptation practices by sector; in doing so, it connects to the WGII AR6 crosschapter themes. The storyline is then a description of the hazards, exposure, vulnerability and impacts providing as much detail as is available in the literature at the sub-regional level, followed by the identification of risks as a result of the interaction of those aspects. This integrated sub-regional approach ensures a balance in the text, particularly for countries that are usually underrepresented in the literature but that show a high level of vulnerability and impacts, such as those observed in CA. The sectoral assessment of adaptation that follows is useful for policymakers and implementers, usually focused and organised by sectors, government ministries or secretaries that can easily locate the relevant adaptation information for their particular sector. To ensure coherence in the chapter, a summary of the assessed adaptation options by key risks is presented, followed by a feasibility assessment for some relevant adaptation options. The chapter closes with case studies and a discussion of the knowledge gaps evidenced in the process of the assessment.EEA Santa CruzFil: Castellanos, Edwin J. Universidad del Valle de Guatemala; Guatemala.Fil: Lemos, Maria Fernanda. Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro; Brasil.Fil: Astigarraga, Laura. Universidad de la República; Uruguay.Fil: Chacón, Noemí. Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas; Venezuela.Fil: Cuvi, Nicolás. Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO); Ecuador.Fil: Huggel, Christian. University of Zurich; Switzerland.Fil: Miranda Sara, Liliana Raquel. Foro Ciudades para la Vida; Peru.Fil: Moncassim Vale, Mariana. Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; Brasil.Fil: Ometto, Jean Pierre. National Institute for Space Research; Brasil.Fil: Peri, Pablo Luis. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Santa Cruz; Argentina.Fil: Peri, Pablo Luis. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral; Argentina.Fil: Peri, Pablo Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.Fil: Postigo, Julio C. Indiana University; Estados Unidos.Fil: Ramajo Gallardo, Laura. Adolfo Ibanez University; Chile.Fil: Roco, Lisandro. Catholic University of The North; Chile.Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina

    Climate change, cryosphere and impacts in the Indian Himalayan Region

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    This study has benefitted from collaborations promoted by the Indian Himalayas Climate Adaptation Programme (www.ihcap.in), a project under the Global Programme Climate Change and Environment of the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation in cooperation with the Department of Science and Technology, Government of India (GoI), and with support from the Government of Himachal Pradesh and National Mission of Himalayan Studies, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, GoI.Climate change and related impacts over the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) remains poorly quantified. The present study reviews observed and modelled changes in the climate, cryosphere and impacts related to hazards, agriculture and ecosystems. An increasing temperature trend over the IHR is reported, which over a few locations is found to be higher than the global average. For precipitation, a complex and inconsistent response with considerable variation in the sign and magnitude of change is observed. Future projections show significant warming. Climate-driven changes and impacts are clearly observed. Snow cover has declined since the 1960s, with an enhanced decreasing trend during the 1990s and variable trends since 2000. Glaciers are losing mass and retreating at varying rates since the early 20th century, with an exception over the Karakoram region. An observed heterogeneous response of glaciers to atmospheric warming is controlled by regional variations in topography, debris cover, circulation and precipitation. Initial assessments of permafrost extent of 1 million km(2) across the IHR roughly translate into 14 times the glacier area. Extreme floods represent the most frequent natural disaster in the IHR. Studies have highlighted the significant threat from glacial lakes. Landslides occur in combination with heavy rainfall and flooding, with poor land- use practices such as road-cutting and deforestation being additional drivers. Climate change has also stressed traditional subsistence agriculture and food systems. Improving systematic and coordinated monitoring of climate and related impacts is crucial to contribute to effective climate change adaptation and response strategies.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

    Factors Contributing to Volcano Lateral Collapse

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    Many factors can lead to volcano lateral collapse, which can produce devastating debris avalanches that travel up to several tens to over 100 km and cover hundreds to more than a thousand km2 with debris. Volcanic lateral collapses are severe hazards because of their destructive power and size, and sudden onset. Although their frequency of occurrence is not as high as those of smaller volcanic mass movements, such as rock falls and lahars, globally large collapses ≥0.1 km3 have occurred at least five times per century over the last 500 years. A large variety of destabilizing factors such as over-steepened slopes, magma intrusions, hydrothermal activity, climate fluctuations, deformation of the basement, and faulting can create the conditions for volcano collapse. Once a volcano reaches its critical point, a mechanism is necessary to trigger the failure event. We present the state-of-the-art of the knowledge acquired in the last few decades concerning the causes of large-scale volcanic failures to better understand the triggers, preparatory factors, and timing of volcano lateral collapse

    A massive rock and ice avalanche caused the 2021 disaster at Chamoli, Indian Himalaya

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    On 7 Feb 2021, a catastrophic mass flow descended the Ronti Gad, Rishiganga, and Dhauliganga valleys in Chamoli, Uttarakhand, India, causing widespread devastation and severely damaging two hydropower projects. Over 200 people were killed or are missing. Our analysis of satellite imagery, seismic records, numerical model results, and eyewitness videos reveals that ~27x106 m3 of rock and glacier ice collapsed from the steep north face of Ronti Peak. The rock and ice avalanche rapidly transformed into an extraordinarily large and mobile debris flow that transported boulders >20 m in diameter, and scoured the valley walls up to 220 m above the valley floor. The intersection of the hazard cascade with downvalley infrastructure resulted in a disaster, which highlights key questions about adequate monitoring and sustainable development in the Himalaya as well as other remote, high-mountain environments

    An Integrative and Joint Approach to Climate Impacts, Hydrological Risks and Adaptation in the Indian Himalayan Region

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    Climate change has enormous impacts on the cryosphere In the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) which have been increasingly documented over the past years. The effects of cryosphere change on people, ecosystems and economic sectors is less clear but bears important risks. Adaptation to changing conditions and risks is a priority for the region. Here we draw on experiences of Indo-Swiss collaborations in the field of climate change, cryosphere, risks and adaptation in the IHR. First, we provide a synthesis of the climate and cryosphere in the IHR, and related impacts on downstream communities and systems. Second, we analyze the associated risks from a conceptual and adaptation perspective. We then introduce concepts of co-production of knowledge as an approach to an inclusive and sustainable adaptation process which includes the development of future scenarios with a wide range of stakeholders. We visualize this approach using examples of the water resource sector

    Loss and damage and limits to adaptation: recent IPCC insights and implications for climate science and policy

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    Recent evidence shows that climate change is leading to irreversible and existential impacts on vulnerable communities and countries across the globe. Among other effects, this has given rise to public debate and engagement around notions of climate crisis and emergency. The Loss and Damage (L&D) policy debate has emphasized these aspects over the last three decades. Yet, despite institutionalization through an article on L&D by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in the Paris Agreement, the debate has remained vague, particularly with reference to its remit and relationship to adaptation policy and practice. Research has recently made important strides forward in terms of developing a science perspective on L&D. This article reviews insights derived from recent publications by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and others, and presents the implications for science and policy. Emerging evidence on hard and soft adaptation limits in certain systems, sectors and regions holds the potential to further build momentum for climate policy to live up to the Paris ambition of stringent emission reductions and to increase efforts to support the most vulnerable. L&D policy may want to consider actions to extend soft adaptation limits and spur transformational, that is, non-standard risk management and adaptation, so that limits are not breached. Financial, technical, and legal support would be appropriate for instances where hard limits are transgressed. Research is well positioned to further develop robust evidence on critical and relevant risks at scale in the most vulnerable countries and communities, as well as options to reduce barriers and limits to adaptation
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