Climate change implications for water resources in the Limpopo River Basin

This paper analyzes the effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Limpopo River Basin of Southern Africa, using a semidistributed hydrological model and the Water Simulation Module of the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). The analysis focuses on the effects of climate change on hydrology and irrigation in parts of the four riparian countries within the basin: Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. Results show that water resources of the Limpopo River Basin are already stressed under today�s climate conditions. Projected water management and infrastructure changes are expected to improve the situation by 2030 if current climate conditions continue into the future. However, under the four climate change scenarios studied here, water supply situations are expected to worsen considerably by 2030. Assessing hydrological impacts of climate change is crucial given that expansion of irrigated areas has been postulated as a key adaptation strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa. Such expansion will need to take into account future changes in water availability in African river basins.Climate change, hydrology, Irrigation, Limpopo River Basin, Water resources,

Impacts of climate change on agriculture and policy options for adaptation

Vietnam is likely to be among the countries hardest hit by climate change, mainly through rising sea levels and changes in rainfall and temperatures. Agriculture can be extensively affected by climate change, and designing effective adaptation strategies will be critical for maintaining food security, rural employment, and foreign exchange earnings. This paper examines these critical issues and thereby makes two contributions to the literature. First, we estimate the impacts of climate change on agricultural and water systems in Vietnam based on crop simulation, hydrological simulation, and river basin models. We then present a yield function approach that models technology advances and policy interventions to improve rice productivity and mitigate the impact of climate change, using a multilevel mixed effects model. This two-pronged approach allows rice yield changes to be linked with both biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. The results indicate that rice production is likely to be severely compromised by climate change. However, investment in rural infrastructure, such as irrigation and road, and human capital can mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. Due to substantial regional variations in impacts and responses, localized policy packages will be key for effective mitigation. Government policies targeting ethnic-minority and poor communities will be especially important components of climate change adaptation strategies.Climate change, productivity, rice,

Climate change impacts on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from comprehensive climate change scenarios

Climate change impacts vary significantly, depending on the scenario and the Global Circulation Model (GCM) chosen. This is particularly true for Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper uses a comprehensive climate change scenario (CCC) based on ensembles of 17 GCMs selected based on their relative performance regarding past predictions of temperature and precipitation at the level of 2o x 2o grid cells, generated by a recently developed entropy-based downscaling model. Based on past performance, the effects of temperature and precipitation across the 17 GCMs are incorporated into a global hydrological model that is linked with IFPRI's IMPACT water and food projections model to assess the effects of climate change on food outcomes for the region. For Sub-Saharan Africa, the paper finds that the CCC scenario predicts consistently higher temperatures and mixed precipitation changes for the 2050 period. Compared to historic climate scenarios, climate change will lead to changes in yield and area growth, higher food prices and therefore lower affordability of food, reduced calorie availability, and growing childhood malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa.Climate change, hydrology, crop yield, food security,

Economy-wide Impacts of Climate on Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa

Two possible adaptation options to climate change for Sub-Saharan Africa are analyzed under the SRES B2 scenario. The first scenario doubles irrigated areas in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, compared to the baseline, but keeps total crop area constant. The second scenario increases both rainfed and irrigated crop yields by 25 percent for all Sub-Saharan African countries. The two adaptation scenarios are analyzed with IMPACT, a partial equilibrium agricultural sector model combined with a water simulation model, and with GTAP-W, a general equilibrium model including water resources. The methodology combines advantages of a partial equilibrium approach, considering detailed wateragriculture linkages with a general equilibrium approach, which takes into account linkages between agriculture and non-agricultural sectors and includes a full treatment of factor markets. The efficacy of the two scenarios as adaptation measures to cope with climate change is discussed. Due to the low initial irrigated areas inthe region, an increase in agricultural productivity achieves better outcomes than an expansion of irrigated areas. Even though Sub-Saharan Africa is not a key contributor to global food production or irrigated food production, both scenarios help lower world food prices, stimulating national and international food markets.Computable General Equilibrium, Climate Change, Agriculture, Sub-Saharan Africa, Integrated Assessment Model

Green and blue water accounting in the Limpopo and Nile Basins: Implications for food and agricultural policy

Green water, Blue water, Irrigation, Rainfed, Agriculture, technology, Investment, Impact, Climate change, Water resources,

Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature

Several environmental changes have occurred in the Sudan in the past; several are ongoing; and others are projected to happen in the future. The Sudan has witnessed increases in temperature, floods, rainfall variability, and concurrent droughts. In a country where agriculture, which is mainly rainfed, is a major contributor to gross domestic product, foreign exchange earnings, and livelihoods, these changes are especially important, requiring measurement and analysis of their impact. This study not only analyzes the economy-wide impacts of climate change, but also consults national policy plans, strategies, and environmental assessments to identify interventions which may mitigate the effects. We feed climate forcing, water demand, and macro-socioeconomic trends into a modelling suite that includes models for global hydrology, river basin management, water stress, and crop growth, all connected to the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). The outcomes of this part of the modeling suite are annual crop yields and global food prices under various climate change scenarios until 2050. The effects of such changes on production, consumption, macroeconomic indicators, and income distribution are assessed using a single country dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the Sudan. Additionally, we introduce yield variability into the CGE model based on stochastic projections of crop yields until 2050. The results of the model simulations reveal that, while the projected mean climate changes bring some good news for the Sudan, extreme negative variability costs the Sudan cumulatively between 2018 and 2050 US$109.5 billion in total absorption and US$ 105.5 billion in GDP relative to a historical mean climate scenario without climate change

Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation:

There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around the world. However, economists are only beginning to develop tools that allow for the quantification of such weather changes on countries' economies and people. This paper presents a modeling suite that links the downscaling of global climate models, crop modeling, global economic modeling, and subnational-level computable equilibrium modeling. Important to note is that this approach allows for decomposing the potential global and local economic effects on countries, including various economic sectors and different household groups. We apply this modeling suite to Syria, a relevant case study given the country's location in a region that is consistently projected to be among those hit hardest by climate change. Despite a certain degree of endogenous adaptation, local impacts of climate change (through declining yields) are likely to affect Syria beyond the agricultural sector and farmers and also reduce economy-wide growth and incomes of urban households in the long term. The overall effects of global climate change (through higher food prices) are also negative, but some farmers can reap the benefit of higher prices. Combining local and global climate change scenarios shows welfare losses across all rural and urban household groups of between 1.6 – 2.8 percent annually, whereas the poorest household groups are the hardest hit. Finally, while there is some evidence that droughts may become more frequent in the future, it is clear that even without an increase in frequency, drought impacts will continue to put a significant burden on Syria's economy and people. Action to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and variability should to be taken on the global and local level. A global action plan for improving food security and better integration of climate change in national development strategies, agricultural and rural policies, and disaster risk management and social protection policies will be keys for improving the resilience of countries and people to climate change.Climate change, Development, drought, Growth, Poverty,

Climate Change and Asian Agriculture

Asian and global agriculture will be under significant pressure to meet the demands of rising populations, using finite and often degraded soil and water resources that are predicted to be further stressed by the impacts of climate change. In addition, agriculture and land use change are prominent sources of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Fertilizer application, livestock rearing, and land management affect levels of GHG in the atmosphere and the amount of carbon storage and sequestration potential. Therefore, while some impending climatic changes will have negative effects on agricultural production in parts of Asia, and especially on resource-poor farmers, the sector also presents opportunities for emission reductions. Warming across the Asian continent will be unevenly distributed, but will certainly lead to crop yield losses in much of the region and subsequent impacts on prices, trade, and food security—disproportionately affecting poor people. Most projections indicate that agriculture in South, Central, and West Asia will be hardest hit.

What is the irrigation potential for Africa?

Although irrigation in Africa has the potential to boost agricultural productivities by at least 50 percent, food production on the continent is almost entirely rainfed. The area equipped for irrigation, currently slightly more than 13 million hectares, makes up just 6 percent of the total cultivated area. Eighty-five percent of Africa’s poor live in rural areas and mostly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. As a result, agricultural development is key to ending poverty on the continent. Many development organizations have recently proposed to significantly increase investments in irrigation in the region. However, the potential for irrigation investments in Africa is highly dependent upon geographic, hydrologic, agronomic, and economic factors that need to be taken into account when assessing the long-term viability and sustainability of planned projects. This paper analyzes large, dam-based and small-scale irrigation investment needs in Africa based on agronomic, hydrologic, and economic factors. This type of analysis can guide country- and local-level assessment of irrigation potential, which will be important to agricultural and economic development in Africa.internal rate of return, Investment, irrigation potential, large-scale irrigation, small-scale irrigation,

Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options

As the global population grows and incomes in poor countries rise, so too, will the demand for food, placing additional pressure on sustainable food production. Climate change adds a further challenge, as changes in temperature and precipitation threaten agricultural productivity and the capacity to feed the world's population. This study assesses how serious the danger to food security might be and suggests some steps policymakers can take to remedy the situation.global food security, Climate change, Food prices, Agricultural productivity,