Reallocation of Resources within the National Productive System in Bolivia: A View from the Perspective of Tradable and Non-Tradable Goods

This paper explores Bolivia’s current unemployment situation taking into account the reallocation of resources within the aggregate supply. The origin of this internal imbalance is due to negative impacts of external real exchange rate (RER) shocks, as well as to changes in the destination of foreign direct investment (FDI) among different sectors of the economy. The model used to explain the imbalance is based on the Dependent Economy theoretical framework, in which production in a small open economy is disaggregated into tradable and non-tradable goods. Under this production scheme, any RER movement in terms of appreciation or depreciation produces a displacement of resources, either along the production possibilities frontier or through the unemployment zone. After demonstrating that the RER suffered an important appreciation in 1997, a model of the aggregate-supply function is constructed considering two variable outputs (tradable and non-tradable goods) and two variable inputs (capital and labor), suggesting in the end the existence of a slow restructuring process at the expense of unemployment of the labor force.Inter-sector labor mobility, Internal balance, Tradable-Nontradable (TNT) model

Bolivia: Impact of shocks and poverty policy on household welfare

This paper evaluates the short term impacts on poverty of pro-poor expenditure and total social expenditure during the 1999-2002 period of Bolivian economic recession. Observed characteristics of recession are simulated by the combined effects of negative terms of trade shock, reduction in foreign saving flows and low output growth. Evaluation is performed by simulating the impacts of shocks and social expenditures in an environment of low growth: i) on macro aggregates of consumption, income, saving and prices (based on a simple static 1-2-3 model built with 1998 data as the base year), ii) on household income and consumption levels by quintiles and areas, and iii) on consumption based poverty indicators by areas. The following were main results from experiments: The terms of trade shock had greater negative impact on household income then reduction in foreign saving flows. In contrast, reduction in foreign saving flows had greater negative impact on household consumption then the terms of trade shock. Poverty measured by the head count ratio has been greater from reduction in foreign saving flows then from the terms of trade shock. Poverty measured by the poverty gap and poverty intensity has concentrated in rural areas, being greater from reduction in foreign saving flows then from the terms of trade shock. Under macroeconomic stability (no shocks and 1998 macro conditions) social expenditure policy for poverty reduction would have had an important positive impact on household income and consumption levels (more so in income then consumption), in reducing the number of poor (more in urban then rural areas), and in reducing poverty gap and poverty intensity (more so in rural areas). However, social expenditure policy does not promote the production of tradables. The combined positive effects from observed social expenditure policy and effort in an environment of low output growth, did not compensate the combined negative impacts from the experienced terms of trade shock and reduction in foreign saving flows. These conclusions show that under macroeconomic disequilibrium poverty reduction efforts become policies of poverty containment or safety net programs. Poverty reduction is a long term objective that requires long term commitment for an environment on macroeconomic stability.External Shocks; Poverty; CGEM 1-2-3; HEGY

The Elasticity of Substitution in Demand for Non-Tradable Goods in Bolivia

This paper uses a CES function to estimate the constant elasticity of substitution in consumption for non-tradables relative to tradables in a dependent economy framework. The methodology for generating data on real consumption of tradable and non-tradable goods, real prices of tradable and non-tradable goods and real absorption is based on the Bolivian Input-Output Matrix, producing quarterly data for the period 1990. 1 to 2002. 4. The data identify Bolivia as a country highly open to trade, with an average ratio of 55 percent in the value of exports and imports relative to GDP, non-tradable production accounting for 52 percent of GDP, and differences in the behavior of the internal and external real exchange rates. The HEGY test is used to identify and separate out seasonal unit roots in the data. A cointegration relationship was found between real absorption, the non-tradable to tradable consumption ratio and the non-tradable to tradable price ratio, suggesting inelasticity of substitution.

Diagnóstico de crecimiento en Bolivia: Una Aplicación a Través de Redes Limitantes

El documento aplica la técnica de diagnóstico de crecimiento (Hausmann et al. 2008) al caso Boliviano, identificando restricciones a través de la metodología de redes limitantes. Se encuentra que el problema estructural está en fallas de gobierno, desincentivando así la inversión por la falla conocida como inapropiabilidad

Diagnóstico de crecimiento en Bolivia: Una Aplicación a Través de Redes Limitantes

El documento aplica la técnica de diagnóstico de crecimiento (Hausmann et al. 2008) al caso Boliviano, identificando restricciones a través de la metodología de redes limitantes. Se encuentra que el problema estructural está en fallas de gobierno, desincentivando así la inversión por la falla conocida como inapropiabilidad

Bolivia: Perfil económico-productivo

El documento traza un perfil económico-productivo de Bolivia en el muy largo plazo, tomando en cuenta información que se remonta incluso al siglo XIX. El énfasis está puesto en identificar y explicar las posibles causas detrás de la dependencia de la explotación de los recursos naturales, fuertemente arraigada en la estructura económica nacional

Bolivia: Perfil económico-productivo

El documento traza un perfil económico-productivo de Bolivia en el muy largo plazo, tomando en cuenta información que se remonta incluso al siglo XIX. El énfasis está puesto en identificar y explicar las posibles causas detrás de la dependencia de la explotación de los recursos naturales, fuertemente arraigada en la estructura económica nacional

Institutional design and implicit incentives in Bolivia's decentralization model

The second generation fiscal federalism approach is used as a reference to analyze the political and fiscal institutional design of Bolivia’s decentralization model and its evolution. Sub-national public finance data up to 2008 is used to verify that decentralization of expenditure was higher than that of revenue, establishing a context of vertical fiscal imbalance that increased due to growing fiscal transfers during the positive external shock (boom) period. Panel models were estimated at sub-national levels to identify and assess the implicit incentives embedded in fiscal institutions of the decentralization model

Bolivia: Impact of shocks and poverty policy on household welfare

This paper evaluates the short term impacts on poverty of pro-poor expenditure and total social expenditure during the 1999-2002 period of Bolivian economic recession. Observed characteristics of recession are simulated by the combined effects of negative terms of trade shock, reduction in foreign saving flows and low output growth. Evaluation is performed by simulating the impacts of shocks and social expenditures in an environment of low growth: i) on macro aggregates of consumption, income, saving and prices (based on a simple static 1-2-3 model built with 1998 data as the base year), ii) on household income and consumption levels by quintiles and areas, and iii) on consumption based poverty indicators by areas. The following were main results from experiments: The terms of trade shock had greater negative impact on household income then reduction in foreign saving flows. In contrast, reduction in foreign saving flows had greater negative impact on household consumption then the terms of trade shock. Poverty measured by the head count ratio has been greater from reduction in foreign saving flows then from the terms of trade shock. Poverty measured by the poverty gap and poverty intensity has concentrated in rural areas, being greater from reduction in foreign saving flows then from the terms of trade shock. Under macroeconomic stability (no shocks and 1998 macro conditions) social expenditure policy for poverty reduction would have had an important positive impact on household income and consumption levels (more so in income then consumption), in reducing the number of poor (more in urban then rural areas), and in reducing poverty gap and poverty intensity (more so in rural areas). However, social expenditure policy does not promote the production of tradables. The combined positive effects from observed social expenditure policy and effort in an environment of low output growth, did not compensate the combined negative impacts from the experienced terms of trade shock and reduction in foreign saving flows. These conclusions show that under macroeconomic disequilibrium poverty reduction efforts become policies of poverty containment or safety net programs. Poverty reduction is a long term objective that requires long term commitment for an environment on macroeconomic stability

Bolivia: Impact of shocks and poverty policy on household welfare

This paper evaluates the short term impacts on poverty of pro-poor expenditure and total social expenditure during the 1999-2002 period of Bolivian economic recession. Observed characteristics of recession are simulated by the combined effects of negative terms of trade shock, reduction in foreign saving flows and low output growth. Evaluation is performed by simulating the impacts of shocks and social expenditures in an environment of low growth: i) on macro aggregates of consumption, income, saving and prices (based on a simple static 1-2-3 model built with 1998 data as the base year), ii) on household income and consumption levels by quintiles and areas, and iii) on consumption based poverty indicators by areas. The following were main results from experiments: The terms of trade shock had greater negative impact on household income then reduction in foreign saving flows. In contrast, reduction in foreign saving flows had greater negative impact on household consumption then the terms of trade shock. Poverty measured by the head count ratio has been greater from reduction in foreign saving flows then from the terms of trade shock. Poverty measured by the poverty gap and poverty intensity has concentrated in rural areas, being greater from reduction in foreign saving flows then from the terms of trade shock. Under macroeconomic stability (no shocks and 1998 macro conditions) social expenditure policy for poverty reduction would have had an important positive impact on household income and consumption levels (more so in income then consumption), in reducing the number of poor (more in urban then rural areas), and in reducing poverty gap and poverty intensity (more so in rural areas). However, social expenditure policy does not promote the production of tradables. The combined positive effects from observed social expenditure policy and effort in an environment of low output growth, did not compensate the combined negative impacts from the experienced terms of trade shock and reduction in foreign saving flows. These conclusions show that under macroeconomic disequilibrium poverty reduction efforts become policies of poverty containment or safety net programs. Poverty reduction is a long term objective that requires long term commitment for an environment on macroeconomic stability